ADBE Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 37 trades in period
-2.18%
Last Year Return
$6,492.82
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$6,637.31
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality
3.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 3.3
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,266
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$6,637.31
Current Value
$6,492.82
Period P&L
$-144.49
Max Drawdown
-41.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
12 /
25
Best Trade
+15.08%
Worst Trade
-7.04%
Avg Trade Return
+0.00%
Avg Hold Time
3.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$472,058.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-144.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-144.49
Gross Return
-2.18%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.18%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $6,637.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:30am ET | $356.24 | 18 | $6,412.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 2:00pm ET | $352.46 | 18 | $6,344.35 | $6,569.34 |
$-67.97 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 3:00pm ET | $359.49 | 18 | $6,470.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 3:30pm ET | $360.73 | 18 | $6,493.14 | $6,591.66 |
+$22.32 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $351.55 | 18 | $6,327.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 1:50pm ET | $347.94 | 18 | $6,262.92 | $6,526.68 |
$-64.98 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 12:15pm ET | $348.95 | 18 | $6,281.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 11:55am ET | $345.46 | 18 | $6,218.28 | $6,463.86 |
$-62.82 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 1:50pm ET | $338.60 | 19 | $6,433.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $334.83 | 19 | $6,361.68 | $6,392.13 |
$-71.73 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 10:20am ET | $332.12 | 19 | $6,310.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 10:50am ET | $340.31 | 19 | $6,465.98 | $6,547.92 |
+$155.79 (+2.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 11:45am ET | $340.84 | 19 | $6,475.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 10:20am ET | $349.37 | 19 | $6,638.03 | $6,709.97 |
+$162.05 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 10:25am ET | $350.31 | 19 | $6,655.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:50am ET | $359.10 | 19 | $6,822.90 | $6,876.98 |
+$167.01 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 11:00am ET | $359.08 | 19 | $6,822.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 1:35pm ET | $355.26 | 19 | $6,749.94 | $6,804.40 |
$-72.58 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $343.00 | 19 | $6,517.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 1:00pm ET | $338.07 | 19 | $6,423.33 | $6,710.73 |
$-93.67 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $338.68 | 19 | $6,434.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 12:15pm ET | $334.83 | 19 | $6,361.68 | $6,637.48 |
$-73.25 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 2:10pm ET | $338.30 | 19 | $6,427.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 1:15pm ET | $334.71 | 19 | $6,359.40 | $6,569.27 |
$-68.21 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 10:20am ET | $322.65 | 20 | $6,453.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:10am ET | $318.87 | 20 | $6,377.40 | $6,493.67 |
$-75.60 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:30am ET | $317.14 | 20 | $6,342.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:35pm ET | $325.08 | 20 | $6,501.60 | $6,652.47 |
+$158.80 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:05am ET | $320.66 | 20 | $6,413.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:20am ET | $317.35 | 20 | $6,347.00 | $6,586.27 |
$-66.20 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:05am ET | $321.01 | 20 | $6,420.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 1:30pm ET | $324.96 | 20 | $6,499.20 | $6,665.27 |
+$79.00 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:55am ET | $323.29 | 20 | $6,465.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 11:25am ET | $323.34 | 20 | $6,466.80 | $6,666.27 |
+$1.00 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:05am ET | $343.84 | 19 | $6,532.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 10:35am ET | $343.20 | 19 | $6,520.86 | $6,654.17 |
$-12.10 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:30am ET | $343.80 | 19 | $6,532.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $343.56 | 19 | $6,527.55 | $6,649.51 |
$-4.66 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 3:10pm ET | $347.01 | 19 | $6,593.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 3:55pm ET | $343.46 | 19 | $6,525.74 | $6,582.06 |
$-67.45 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 12:35pm ET | $355.62 | 18 | $6,401.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 3:20pm ET | $351.98 | 18 | $6,335.55 | $6,516.45 |
$-65.61 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:35am ET | $362.44 | 17 | $6,161.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:20am ET | $358.43 | 17 | $6,093.31 | $6,448.37 |
$-68.08 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $354.61 | 18 | $6,382.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 10:30am ET | $353.65 | 18 | $6,365.70 | $6,431.09 |
$-17.28 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 3:50pm ET | $356.94 | 18 | $6,424.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:20am ET | $353.11 | 18 | $6,355.98 | $6,362.24 |
$-68.85 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $333.64 | 19 | $6,339.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $335.52 | 19 | $6,374.88 | $6,397.96 |
+$35.72 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $342.08 | 18 | $6,157.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:40pm ET | $338.48 | 18 | $6,092.64 | $6,333.25 |
$-64.71 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $342.79 | 18 | $6,170.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:45pm ET | $339.06 | 18 | $6,103.08 | $6,266.20 |
$-67.05 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $329.31 | 19 | $6,256.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $319.32 | 19 | $6,067.08 | $6,076.48 |
$-189.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 3:50pm ET | $294.15 | 20 | $5,883.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET | $301.72 | 20 | $6,034.40 | $6,227.88 |
+$151.40 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $294.89 | 21 | $6,192.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 12:10pm ET | $291.79 | 21 | $6,127.49 | $6,162.68 |
$-65.20 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $272.06 | 22 | $5,985.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $279.35 | 22 | $6,145.72 | $6,323.08 |
+$160.40 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $264.42 | 23 | $6,081.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $263.52 | 23 | $6,060.85 | $6,302.27 |
$-20.81 (-0.3%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.26 | 25 | $6,156.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.26 | 25 | $5,781.40 | $5,927.17 |
$-375.10 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.13 | 24 | $5,811.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $263.09 | 24 | $6,314.16 | $6,430.21 |
+$503.04 (+8.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
47d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.38 | 29 | $6,304.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:20am ET | $250.18 | 29 | $7,255.08 | $7,381.12 |
+$950.91 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
26d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $259.82 | 28 | $7,274.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.52 | 28 | $6,762.62 | $6,868.78 |
$-512.34 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
39d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.36 | 26 | $6,795.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.90 | 26 | $6,419.40 | $6,492.82 |
$-375.96 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,492.82
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,507.18
Total Return:
-35.07%