AMD Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 51 trades in period
-3.44%
Last Year Return
$16,118.21
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$16,692.99
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.4 neutral
20d Trend
-15.2%
5d Trend
-20.7%
EMA20 Dist
-16.9%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
31
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.4/35
Total Return
14.9/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality
30.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 30.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,579
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$16,692.99
Current Value
$16,118.21
Period P&L
$-574.78
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
16 /
35
Best Trade
+19.43%
Worst Trade
-8.41%
Avg Trade Return
+0.09%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,683,263.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-574.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-574.78
Gross Return
-3.44%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.44%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AMD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $16,692.99 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:10am ET | $158.26 | 105 | $16,617.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 10:40am ET | $158.96 | 105 | $16,690.41 | $16,766.10 |
+$73.11 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:50am ET | $163.84 | 102 | $16,711.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 12:00pm ET | $161.67 | 102 | $16,490.34 | $16,544.76 |
$-221.34 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 10:20am ET | $161.50 | 102 | $16,473.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 1:20pm ET | $159.87 | 102 | $16,306.23 | $16,377.99 |
$-166.77 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $163.65 | 100 | $16,365.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 11:10am ET | $161.95 | 100 | $16,195.00 | $16,207.99 |
$-170.00 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 11:20am ET | $224.50 | 72 | $16,164.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 1:40pm ET | $231.31 | 72 | $16,654.28 | $16,698.27 |
+$490.28 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 12:15pm ET | $222.39 | 75 | $16,679.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 3:40pm ET | $218.64 | 75 | $16,397.63 | $16,416.46 |
$-281.81 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:15am ET | $233.12 | 70 | $16,318.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 10:10am ET | $239.25 | 70 | $16,747.63 | $16,846.04 |
+$429.58 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $235.00 | 71 | $16,685.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $232.03 | 71 | $16,474.35 | $16,635.38 |
$-210.66 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 10:30am ET | $241.44 | 68 | $16,417.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 10:00am ET | $237.02 | 68 | $16,117.36 | $16,334.82 |
$-300.56 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 1:45pm ET | $235.37 | 69 | $16,240.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $251.09 | 69 | $17,325.29 | $17,419.58 |
+$1,084.76 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 10:35am ET | $252.76 | 68 | $17,187.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 11:15am ET | $250.01 | 68 | $17,000.68 | $17,232.58 |
$-187.00 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 3:50pm ET | $259.69 | 66 | $17,139.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 10:20am ET | $264.44 | 66 | $17,452.71 | $17,545.75 |
+$313.17 (+1.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $256.90 | 68 | $17,469.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 12:05pm ET | $254.02 | 68 | $17,273.36 | $17,349.92 |
$-195.83 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:40am ET | $253.97 | 68 | $17,269.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $241.46 | 68 | $16,419.28 | $16,499.24 |
$-850.68 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:20am ET | $247.34 | 66 | $16,324.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:55am ET | $244.65 | 66 | $16,147.15 | $16,321.95 |
$-177.29 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 10:10am ET | $260.01 | 62 | $16,120.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 12:45pm ET | $255.61 | 62 | $15,847.82 | $16,049.15 |
$-272.80 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 10:05am ET | $256.38 | 62 | $15,895.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:45am ET | $253.50 | 62 | $15,716.69 | $15,870.21 |
$-178.94 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:10am ET | $233.46 | 67 | $15,641.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 11:00am ET | $230.70 | 67 | $15,457.08 | $15,685.81 |
$-184.40 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 11:25am ET | $213.92 | 73 | $15,615.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $195.92 | 73 | $14,302.16 | $14,372.17 |
$-1,313.64 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 3:25pm ET | $204.11 | 70 | $14,287.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:05am ET | $210.96 | 70 | $14,767.20 | $14,851.76 |
+$479.59 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:20am ET | $213.67 | 69 | $14,742.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 11:50am ET | $217.11 | 69 | $14,980.59 | $15,089.41 |
+$237.65 (+1.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 1:50pm ET | $220.70 | 68 | $15,007.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 11:10am ET | $218.08 | 68 | $14,829.44 | $14,911.25 |
$-178.16 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:40am ET | $218.09 | 68 | $14,829.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 11:05am ET | $215.68 | 68 | $14,666.24 | $14,747.54 |
$-163.71 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:10am ET | $223.01 | 66 | $14,718.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:35am ET | $220.31 | 66 | $14,540.46 | $14,569.64 |
$-177.90 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $221.71 | 65 | $14,411.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:30am ET | $220.07 | 65 | $14,304.55 | $14,463.04 |
$-106.60 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:35pm ET | $218.53 | 66 | $14,422.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:05am ET | $216.09 | 66 | $14,261.94 | $14,302.00 |
$-161.04 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 12:25pm ET | $212.45 | 67 | $14,234.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 12:55pm ET | $214.80 | 67 | $14,391.59 | $14,459.44 |
+$157.44 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:15am ET | $209.07 | 69 | $14,425.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $220.58 | 69 | $15,220.02 | $15,253.98 |
+$794.54 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:10am ET | $219.60 | 69 | $15,152.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $236.67 | 69 | $16,329.89 | $16,431.69 |
+$1,177.71 (+7.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $237.51 | 69 | $16,388.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 2:10pm ET | $234.83 | 69 | $16,202.93 | $16,246.42 |
$-185.27 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $234.93 | 69 | $16,210.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $232.36 | 69 | $16,032.84 | $16,069.09 |
$-177.33 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $246.89 | 65 | $16,047.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $244.41 | 65 | $15,886.65 | $15,908.21 |
$-160.88 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $254.96 | 62 | $15,807.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $252.34 | 62 | $15,645.38 | $15,746.38 |
$-161.83 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $248.15 | 63 | $15,633.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:35pm ET | $245.56 | 63 | $15,470.28 | $15,582.89 |
$-163.49 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $208.23 | 74 | $15,409.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $214.40 | 74 | $15,865.97 | $16,039.84 |
+$456.95 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $214.79 | 74 | $15,894.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $217.63 | 74 | $16,104.92 | $16,250.30 |
+$210.46 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $197.85 | 82 | $16,223.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $232.37 | 82 | $19,054.34 | $19,080.94 |
+$2,830.64 (+17.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.93 | 72 | $19,074.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $305.71 | 72 | $22,011.12 | $22,017.10 |
+$2,936.16 (+15.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $426.80 | 51 | $21,766.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $404.50 | 51 | $20,629.50 | $20,879.80 |
$-1,137.30 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $424.43 | 49 | $20,797.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $399.48 | 49 | $19,574.52 | $19,657.19 |
$-1,222.61 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $469.87 | 41 | $19,264.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $540.51 | 41 | $22,160.71 | $22,553.23 |
+$2,896.04 (+15.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $535.75 | 42 | $22,501.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $508.10 | 42 | $21,340.20 | $21,391.93 |
$-1,161.30 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $544.37 | 39 | $21,230.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $507.75 | 39 | $19,802.25 | $19,963.75 |
$-1,428.18 (-6.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $558.33 | 35 | $19,541.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $527.99 | 35 | $18,479.82 | $18,902.02 |
$-1,061.73 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $537.96 | 35 | $18,828.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $508.84 | 35 | $17,809.35 | $17,882.77 |
$-1,019.25 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $517.24 | 34 | $17,586.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $488.98 | 34 | $16,625.32 | $16,921.93 |
$-960.84 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $509.48 | 33 | $16,812.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 3:40pm ET | $483.84 | 33 | $15,966.72 | $16,075.97 |
$-845.96 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $504.00 | 31 | $15,624.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $471.14 | 31 | $14,605.49 | $15,057.46 |
$-1,018.51 (-6.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.80 | 30 | $14,664.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:15am ET | $462.68 | 30 | $13,880.40 | $14,273.86 |
$-783.60 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $477.38 | 29 | $13,844.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 10:25am ET | $452.53 | 29 | $13,123.37 | $13,553.21 |
$-720.65 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.88 | 27 | $13,199.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $583.88 | 27 | $15,764.76 | $16,118.21 |
+$2,565.00 (+19.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,118.21
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,118.21
Total Return:
+61.18%