AMZN Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 39 trades in period
+32.76%
Last Year Return
$15,433.71
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$11,625.69
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
38
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
18.0/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
45.0/100
× Confidence 0.84
= 37.8
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,734
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,625.69
Current Value
$15,433.71
Period P&L
$3,808.02
Max Drawdown
-10.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
21 /
18
Best Trade
+17.40%
Worst Trade
-5.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.81%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$947,021.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,808.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,808.02
Gross Return
+32.76%
Net Return (after fees)
+32.76%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,625.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 11:40am ET | $220.60 | 52 | $11,471.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 12:10pm ET | $221.41 | 52 | $11,513.39 | $11,667.88 |
+$42.19 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 12:20pm ET | $221.98 | 52 | $11,542.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 12:50pm ET | $222.22 | 52 | $11,555.44 | $11,680.36 |
+$12.48 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 3:05pm ET | $221.69 | 52 | $11,527.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 3:35pm ET | $221.43 | 52 | $11,514.36 | $11,666.84 |
$-13.52 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:45am ET | $224.19 | 52 | $11,658.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 10:30am ET | $221.86 | 52 | $11,536.46 | $11,545.23 |
$-121.61 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 2:20pm ET | $226.05 | 51 | $11,528.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $222.54 | 51 | $11,349.55 | $11,366.23 |
$-179.00 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:25am ET | $216.43 | 52 | $11,254.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:55am ET | $216.68 | 52 | $11,267.36 | $11,379.49 |
+$13.26 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 1:15pm ET | $215.69 | 52 | $11,215.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 10:05am ET | $221.16 | 52 | $11,500.06 | $11,663.67 |
+$284.18 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $221.87 | 52 | $11,536.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:00am ET | $218.60 | 52 | $11,367.20 | $11,493.89 |
$-169.78 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 12:45pm ET | $224.91 | 51 | $11,470.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 1:15pm ET | $227.68 | 51 | $11,611.43 | $11,635.16 |
+$141.27 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 12:30pm ET | $229.28 | 50 | $11,464.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 1:00pm ET | $231.06 | 50 | $11,553.00 | $11,724.16 |
+$89.00 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 10:05am ET | $227.83 | 51 | $11,619.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 1:00pm ET | $225.20 | 51 | $11,485.20 | $11,590.03 |
$-134.13 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 12:30pm ET | $249.85 | 46 | $11,493.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $246.61 | 46 | $11,343.83 | $11,440.76 |
$-149.27 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 3:35pm ET | $244.51 | 46 | $11,247.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:05am ET | $248.67 | 46 | $11,438.82 | $11,632.14 |
+$191.38 (+1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $237.56 | 48 | $11,402.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 3:20pm ET | $235.12 | 48 | $11,285.76 | $11,515.02 |
$-117.12 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:25am ET | $218.58 | 52 | $11,365.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $225.86 | 52 | $11,744.85 | $11,893.97 |
+$378.95 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 3:05pm ET | $226.59 | 52 | $11,782.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 3:35pm ET | $229.79 | 52 | $11,949.08 | $12,060.37 |
+$166.40 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 3:40pm ET | $229.39 | 52 | $11,928.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 10:10am ET | $231.59 | 52 | $12,042.87 | $12,174.96 |
+$114.59 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:55am ET | $236.41 | 51 | $12,056.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 11:30am ET | $234.01 | 51 | $11,934.51 | $12,052.51 |
$-122.45 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:35am ET | $228.10 | 52 | $11,860.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 11:05am ET | $230.92 | 52 | $12,007.82 | $12,199.39 |
+$146.88 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 10:30am ET | $227.93 | 53 | $12,080.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:20pm ET | $225.60 | 53 | $11,956.54 | $12,075.56 |
$-123.83 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 12:15pm ET | $228.62 | 52 | $11,887.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 12:45pm ET | $227.92 | 52 | $11,851.84 | $12,039.42 |
$-36.14 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 3:40pm ET | $229.40 | 52 | $11,928.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 10:10am ET | $231.89 | 52 | $12,058.28 | $12,168.90 |
+$129.48 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $233.16 | 52 | $12,124.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $238.32 | 52 | $12,392.64 | $12,437.22 |
+$268.32 (+2.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $238.25 | 52 | $12,388.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $244.27 | 52 | $12,702.10 | $12,750.58 |
+$313.36 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $244.74 | 52 | $12,726.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:05pm ET | $242.22 | 52 | $12,595.53 | $12,619.63 |
$-130.95 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 12:30pm ET | $245.73 | 51 | $12,532.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $242.70 | 51 | $12,377.45 | $12,464.84 |
$-154.79 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $246.59 | 50 | $12,329.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:35am ET | $247.77 | 50 | $12,388.25 | $12,523.84 |
+$59.00 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:55am ET | $240.19 | 52 | $12,489.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 2:30pm ET | $237.47 | 52 | $12,348.44 | $12,382.40 |
$-141.44 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:05pm ET | $235.17 | 52 | $12,228.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $239.74 | 52 | $12,466.48 | $12,620.30 |
+$237.90 (+1.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 12:40pm ET | $239.19 | 52 | $12,437.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $239.06 | 52 | $12,431.12 | $12,613.62 |
$-6.68 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $241.50 | 52 | $12,557.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $243.52 | 52 | $12,662.78 | $12,718.66 |
+$105.04 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $244.32 | 52 | $12,704.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $240.11 | 52 | $12,485.72 | $12,499.74 |
$-218.92 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $205.77 | 60 | $12,346.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $211.39 | 60 | $12,683.40 | $12,836.74 |
+$337.00 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $209.71 | 61 | $12,792.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $209.96 | 61 | $12,807.86 | $12,852.29 |
+$15.55 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $200.30 | 64 | $12,819.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $197.99 | 64 | $12,671.36 | $12,704.13 |
$-148.16 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $223.99 | 56 | $12,543.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $257.68 | 56 | $14,430.08 | $14,590.77 |
+$1,886.64 (+15.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $273.04 | 53 | $14,471.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:00am ET | $259.21 | 53 | $13,738.13 | $13,857.78 |
$-732.99 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.02 | 56 | $13,721.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $232.55 | 56 | $13,022.80 | $13,159.46 |
$-698.32 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $237.61 | 55 | $13,068.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $278.96 | 55 | $15,342.80 | $15,433.71 |
+$2,274.25 (+17.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,433.71
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,433.71
Total Return:
+54.34%