Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-25 15:11:25

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
12
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.8
Active
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 25, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.8/35
Total Return
12.6/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 27.2/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 25.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
27,619
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-25 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$12,127.62
Current Value
$13,183.25
Period P&L
$1,055.63
Max Drawdown
-16.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
60
Winners / Losers
25 / 35
Best Trade
+10.67%
Worst Trade
-5.20%
Avg Trade Return
+0.16%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,442,681.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,055.63
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,055.63
Gross Return
+8.70%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.70%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 60 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,127.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2025 11:00am ET $70.36 172 $12,101.06
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2025 10:20am ET $69.49 172 $11,951.42 $11,982.28 $-149.64
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2025 10:55am ET $70.65 169 $11,939.85
🔴 SELL Jun 27, 2025 11:05am ET $69.88 169 $11,809.72 $11,852.15 $-130.13
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2025 10:10am ET $70.03 169 $11,834.23
🔴 SELL Jul 3, 2025 10:40am ET $70.89 169 $11,979.57 $11,997.49 +$145.34
(+1.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $73.53 163 $11,985.39
🔴 SELL Jul 11, 2025 10:50am ET $72.66 163 $11,843.58 $11,855.68 $-141.81
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2025 10:50am ET $73.27 161 $11,796.47
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2025 11:20am ET $73.30 161 $11,801.30 $11,860.51 +$4.83
(+0.0%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2025 10:30am ET $74.42 159 $11,831.99
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2025 11:30am ET $73.63 159 $11,707.17 $11,735.69 $-124.82
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2025 10:05am ET $76.24 153 $11,664.72
🔴 SELL Jul 18, 2025 10:00am ET $78.39 153 $11,993.67 $12,064.64 +$328.95
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 18, 2025 10:05am ET $78.68 153 $12,038.04
🔴 SELL Jul 18, 2025 10:25am ET $77.66 153 $11,881.98 $11,908.58 $-156.06
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2025 3:15pm ET $77.22 154 $11,891.11
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2025 10:00am ET $76.32 154 $11,753.28 $11,770.75 $-137.83
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 25, 2025 10:40am ET $76.54 153 $11,710.62
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2025 11:10am ET $77.06 153 $11,790.18 $11,850.31 +$79.56
(+0.7%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2025 10:45am ET $76.20 155 $11,811.00
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2025 2:55pm ET $75.02 155 $11,627.71 $11,667.02 $-183.29
(-1.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2025 10:05am ET $72.50 160 $11,600.00
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2025 10:35am ET $72.88 160 $11,660.00 $11,727.02 +$60.00
(+0.5%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2025 1:15pm ET $73.53 159 $11,691.27
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2025 1:45pm ET $73.72 159 $11,721.48 $11,757.23 +$30.21
(+0.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2025 12:05pm ET $76.83 153 $11,754.99
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2025 1:15pm ET $75.97 153 $11,623.41 $11,625.65 $-131.58
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2025 12:05pm ET $77.12 150 $11,568.00
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2025 10:00am ET $76.14 150 $11,421.00 $11,478.65 $-147.00
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2025 10:25am ET $73.90 155 $11,454.50
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2025 10:05am ET $76.11 155 $11,797.05 $11,821.20 +$342.55
(+3.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2025 10:10am ET $76.61 154 $11,797.94
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2025 10:40am ET $76.27 154 $11,745.58 $11,768.84 $-52.36
(-0.4%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2025 3:50pm ET $76.21 154 $11,736.34
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2025 12:20pm ET $75.39 154 $11,609.29 $11,641.79 $-127.05
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2025 10:15am ET $77.84 149 $11,597.43
🔴 SELL Sep 12, 2025 10:45am ET $78.37 149 $11,677.13 $11,721.49 +$79.70
(+0.7%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2025 1:10pm ET $80.73 145 $11,705.85
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2025 1:40pm ET $80.44 145 $11,663.08 $11,678.71 $-42.78
(-0.4%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2025 2:00pm ET $81.54 143 $11,660.22
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2025 2:05pm ET $80.66 143 $11,534.38 $11,552.87 $-125.84
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2025 10:40am ET $82.79 139 $11,507.12
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2025 10:00am ET $85.30 139 $11,856.70 $11,902.46 +$349.59
(+3.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 10:20am ET $82.29 144 $11,849.76
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2025 1:40pm ET $81.39 144 $11,720.16 $11,772.86 $-129.60
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 29, 2025 10:10am ET $84.84 138 $11,707.92
🔴 SELL Sep 30, 2025 10:40am ET $85.20 138 $11,757.60 $11,822.54 +$49.68
(+0.4%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 30, 2025 3:25pm ET $86.37 136 $11,746.32
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $87.05 136 $11,838.80 $11,915.02 +$92.48
(+0.8%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Oct 2, 2025 3:05pm ET $88.99 133 $11,835.67
🔴 SELL Oct 3, 2025 1:40pm ET $87.98 133 $11,701.61 $11,780.96 $-134.06
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Oct 6, 2025 1:05pm ET $91.47 128 $11,708.16
🔴 SELL Oct 7, 2025 11:00am ET $90.47 128 $11,579.52 $11,652.32 $-128.64
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Oct 8, 2025 10:05am ET $90.31 129 $11,649.99
🔴 SELL Oct 8, 2025 2:05pm ET $92.59 129 $11,944.11 $11,946.44 +$294.12
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
29 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 10:15am ET $86.05 138 $11,874.90
🔴 SELL Oct 14, 2025 3:15pm ET $88.33 138 $12,189.54 $12,261.08 +$314.64
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
30 🟢 BUY Oct 15, 2025 10:05am ET $89.80 136 $12,212.12
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 11:45am ET $88.75 136 $12,070.00 $12,118.96 $-142.12
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
31 🟢 BUY Oct 20, 2025 1:00pm ET $90.22 134 $12,089.48
🔴 SELL Oct 21, 2025 10:00am ET $88.77 134 $11,895.18 $11,924.66 $-194.30
(-1.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
32 🟢 BUY Oct 23, 2025 11:00am ET $86.71 137 $11,879.27
🔴 SELL Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET $89.44 137 $12,253.28 $12,298.67 +$374.01
(+3.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
33 🟢 BUY Oct 24, 2025 10:10am ET $89.90 136 $12,226.40
🔴 SELL Oct 27, 2025 10:40am ET $89.25 136 $12,137.32 $12,209.59 $-89.08
(-0.7%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
34 🟢 BUY Oct 27, 2025 1:05pm ET $90.48 134 $12,124.32
🔴 SELL Oct 28, 2025 1:35pm ET $89.81 134 $12,034.54 $12,119.81 $-89.78
(-0.7%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
35 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2025 10:45am ET $89.83 134 $12,037.22
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2025 11:55am ET $88.82 134 $11,901.95 $11,984.54 $-135.27
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
36 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 12:15pm ET $84.67 141 $11,937.77
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET $82.73 141 $11,664.23 $11,711.00 $-273.54
(-2.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
37 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 2:20pm ET $79.65 147 $11,708.55
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET $83.22 147 $12,233.34 $12,235.79 +$524.79
(+4.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
38 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET $77.29 158 $12,211.82
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 10:00am ET $76.39 158 $12,069.62 $12,093.59 $-142.20
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
39 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 12:50pm ET $75.66 159 $12,029.94
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 10:45am ET $74.65 159 $11,869.35 $11,933.00 $-160.59
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
40 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET $73.53 162 $11,911.86
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET $75.51 162 $12,232.62 $12,253.76 +$320.76
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
41 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 10:45am ET $75.74 161 $12,194.14
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 11:15am ET $76.04 161 $12,242.44 $12,302.06 +$48.30
(+0.4%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
42 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 12:00pm ET $76.44 160 $12,230.40
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 12:30pm ET $78.07 160 $12,491.20 $12,562.86 +$260.80
(+2.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
43 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 2:25pm ET $78.68 159 $12,510.12
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 10:20am ET $77.62 159 $12,341.58 $12,394.32 $-168.54
(-1.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
44 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 10:05am ET $79.38 156 $12,383.28
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 11:15am ET $78.53 156 $12,249.90 $12,260.94 $-133.38
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
45 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 11:00am ET $79.98 153 $12,236.18
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 11:15am ET $82.04 153 $12,551.36 $12,576.12 +$315.18
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
46 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 11:20am ET $82.15 153 $12,568.95
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 11:50am ET $82.10 153 $12,561.30 $12,568.47 $-7.65
(-0.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
47 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 10:15am ET $82.16 152 $12,488.32
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 10:45am ET $82.26 152 $12,503.52 $12,583.67 +$15.20
(+0.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
48 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET $83.12 151 $12,551.12
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET $81.50 151 $12,306.50 $12,339.05 $-244.62
(-1.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
49 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 11:20am ET $80.29 153 $12,284.98
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 11:50am ET $82.13 153 $12,565.89 $12,619.96 +$280.91
(+2.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
50 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 2:00pm ET $81.31 155 $12,603.05
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 2:30pm ET $81.60 155 $12,648.00 $12,664.91 +$44.95
(+0.4%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
51 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 2:50pm ET $83.46 151 $12,601.71
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET $82.53 151 $12,462.03 $12,525.23 $-139.68
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
52 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET $80.36 155 $12,455.80
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET $79.42 155 $12,310.10 $12,379.53 $-145.70
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
53 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:40am ET $80.22 154 $12,353.88
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET $79.35 154 $12,219.13 $12,244.78 $-134.75
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
54 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET $81.83 149 $12,192.67
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 11:10am ET $81.70 149 $12,173.30 $12,225.41 $-19.37
(-0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
55 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET $75.19 162 $12,181.59
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET $74.24 162 $12,026.88 $12,070.70 $-154.71
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
56 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET $69.26 174 $12,051.24
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $71.12 174 $12,374.88 $12,394.34 +$323.64
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
57 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET $71.36 173 $12,345.28
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET $73.26 173 $12,673.98 $12,723.04 +$328.70
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
58 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $71.00 179 $12,708.28
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:45am ET $70.11 179 $12,549.69 $12,564.45 $-158.59
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
59 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 172 $12,542.45
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $69.13 172 $11,890.36 $11,912.36 $-652.09
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
60 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 162 $11,911.86
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $81.38 162 $13,182.75 $13,183.25 +$1,270.89
(+10.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,183.25
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,183.25
Total Return: +31.83%
Back to Surge