ARKK Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 39 trades in period
+4.71%
Last Year Return
$12,463.37
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$11,902.46
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
19
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.2/35
Total Return
11.7/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
24.3/100
× Confidence 0.79
= 19.1
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
23,973
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,902.46
Current Value
$12,463.37
Period P&L
$560.91
Max Drawdown
-16.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
16 /
23
Best Trade
+10.67%
Worst Trade
-5.48%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$951,126.42
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$560.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$560.91
Gross Return
+4.71%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.71%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,902.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:20am ET | $82.29 | 144 | $11,849.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 1:40pm ET | $81.39 | 144 | $11,720.16 | $11,772.86 |
$-129.60 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:10am ET | $84.84 | 138 | $11,707.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 10:40am ET | $85.20 | 138 | $11,757.60 | $11,822.54 |
+$49.68 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 3:25pm ET | $86.37 | 136 | $11,746.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 3:55pm ET | $87.05 | 136 | $11,838.80 | $11,915.02 |
+$92.48 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 3:05pm ET | $88.99 | 133 | $11,835.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 1:40pm ET | $87.98 | 133 | $11,701.61 | $11,780.96 |
$-134.06 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 1:05pm ET | $91.47 | 128 | $11,708.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 11:00am ET | $90.47 | 128 | $11,579.52 | $11,652.32 |
$-128.64 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:05am ET | $90.31 | 129 | $11,649.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 2:05pm ET | $92.59 | 129 | $11,944.11 | $11,946.44 |
+$294.12 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:15am ET | $86.05 | 138 | $11,874.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 3:15pm ET | $88.33 | 138 | $12,189.54 | $12,261.08 |
+$314.64 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:05am ET | $89.80 | 136 | $12,212.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 11:45am ET | $88.75 | 136 | $12,070.00 | $12,118.96 |
$-142.12 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 1:00pm ET | $90.22 | 134 | $12,089.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 10:00am ET | $88.77 | 134 | $11,895.18 | $11,924.66 |
$-194.30 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 11:00am ET | $86.71 | 137 | $11,879.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $89.44 | 137 | $12,253.28 | $12,298.67 |
+$374.01 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 10:10am ET | $89.90 | 136 | $12,226.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 10:40am ET | $89.25 | 136 | $12,137.32 | $12,209.59 |
$-89.08 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 1:05pm ET | $90.48 | 134 | $12,124.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 1:35pm ET | $89.81 | 134 | $12,034.54 | $12,119.81 |
$-89.78 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:45am ET | $89.83 | 134 | $12,037.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 11:55am ET | $88.82 | 134 | $11,901.95 | $11,984.54 |
$-135.27 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 12:15pm ET | $84.67 | 141 | $11,937.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $82.73 | 141 | $11,664.23 | $11,711.00 |
$-273.54 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:20pm ET | $79.65 | 147 | $11,708.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $83.22 | 147 | $12,233.34 | $12,235.79 |
+$524.79 (+4.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $77.29 | 158 | $12,211.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $76.39 | 158 | $12,069.62 | $12,093.59 |
$-142.20 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:50pm ET | $75.66 | 159 | $12,029.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:45am ET | $74.65 | 159 | $11,869.35 | $11,933.00 |
$-160.59 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET | $73.53 | 162 | $11,911.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $75.51 | 162 | $12,232.62 | $12,253.76 |
+$320.76 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:45am ET | $75.74 | 161 | $12,194.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 11:15am ET | $76.04 | 161 | $12,242.44 | $12,302.06 |
+$48.30 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 12:00pm ET | $76.44 | 160 | $12,230.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 12:30pm ET | $78.07 | 160 | $12,491.20 | $12,562.86 |
+$260.80 (+2.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 2:25pm ET | $78.68 | 159 | $12,510.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:20am ET | $77.62 | 159 | $12,341.58 | $12,394.32 |
$-168.54 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:05am ET | $79.38 | 156 | $12,383.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 11:15am ET | $78.53 | 156 | $12,249.90 | $12,260.94 |
$-133.38 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 11:00am ET | $79.98 | 153 | $12,236.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:15am ET | $82.04 | 153 | $12,551.36 | $12,576.12 |
+$315.18 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 11:20am ET | $82.15 | 153 | $12,568.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 11:50am ET | $82.10 | 153 | $12,561.30 | $12,568.47 |
$-7.65 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:15am ET | $82.16 | 152 | $12,488.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:45am ET | $82.26 | 152 | $12,503.52 | $12,583.67 |
+$15.20 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET | $83.12 | 151 | $12,551.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $81.50 | 151 | $12,306.50 | $12,339.05 |
$-244.62 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:20am ET | $80.29 | 153 | $12,284.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 11:50am ET | $82.13 | 153 | $12,565.89 | $12,619.96 |
+$280.91 (+2.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:00pm ET | $81.31 | 155 | $12,603.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 2:30pm ET | $81.60 | 155 | $12,648.00 | $12,664.91 |
+$44.95 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:50pm ET | $83.46 | 151 | $12,601.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $82.53 | 151 | $12,462.03 | $12,525.23 |
$-139.68 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $80.36 | 155 | $12,455.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET | $79.42 | 155 | $12,310.10 | $12,379.53 |
$-145.70 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $80.22 | 154 | $12,353.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $79.35 | 154 | $12,219.13 | $12,244.78 |
$-134.75 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET | $81.83 | 149 | $12,192.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $81.70 | 149 | $12,173.30 | $12,225.41 |
$-19.37 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $75.19 | 162 | $12,181.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $74.24 | 162 | $12,026.88 | $12,070.70 |
$-154.71 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $69.26 | 174 | $12,051.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $71.12 | 174 | $12,374.88 | $12,394.34 |
+$323.64 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $71.36 | 173 | $12,345.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $73.26 | 173 | $12,673.98 | $12,723.04 |
+$328.70 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $71.00 | 179 | $12,708.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $70.11 | 179 | $12,549.69 | $12,564.45 |
$-158.59 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.92 | 172 | $12,542.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $69.13 | 172 | $11,890.36 | $11,912.36 |
$-652.09 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.53 | 162 | $11,911.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.38 | 162 | $13,182.75 | $13,183.25 |
+$1,270.89 (+10.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.25 | 168 | $13,146.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.96 | 168 | $12,426.12 | $12,463.37 |
$-719.88 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
32d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,463.37
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,463.37
Total Return:
+24.63%