ARM Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 45 trades in period
+3.09%
Last Year Return
$9,612.96
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$9,324.41
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
5.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 5.1
30-Day Momentum
6
+2.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.2
Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,073
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,324.41
Current Value
$9,612.96
Period P&L
$288.55
Max Drawdown
-34.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
13 /
32
Best Trade
+24.42%
Worst Trade
-9.25%
Avg Trade Return
+0.29%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$834,285.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$288.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$288.55
Gross Return
+3.09%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.09%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,324.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 11:00am ET | $145.25 | 64 | $9,296.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 12:00pm ET | $143.75 | 64 | $9,200.00 | $9,228.41 |
$-96.00 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:30am ET | $147.97 | 62 | $9,173.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 11:10am ET | $146.11 | 62 | $9,058.82 | $9,113.40 |
$-115.01 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $152.16 | 59 | $8,977.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 10:55am ET | $150.43 | 59 | $8,875.37 | $9,011.62 |
$-101.78 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 3:10pm ET | $162.47 | 55 | $8,935.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 3:50pm ET | $167.90 | 55 | $9,234.23 | $9,310.00 |
+$298.38 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 11:00am ET | $167.22 | 55 | $9,197.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 3:05pm ET | $171.75 | 55 | $9,445.98 | $9,558.88 |
+$248.88 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 10:35am ET | $163.84 | 58 | $9,502.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 11:55am ET | $168.05 | 58 | $9,746.90 | $9,803.35 |
+$244.47 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 11:00am ET | $172.89 | 56 | $9,681.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 2:15pm ET | $171.11 | 56 | $9,582.16 | $9,703.73 |
$-99.62 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 11:20am ET | $171.46 | 56 | $9,601.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 3:05pm ET | $168.81 | 56 | $9,453.36 | $9,555.33 |
$-148.40 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 12:30pm ET | $174.20 | 54 | $9,406.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 1:30pm ET | $172.14 | 54 | $9,295.56 | $9,444.09 |
$-111.24 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 10:25am ET | $179.28 | 52 | $9,322.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 3:15pm ET | $177.43 | 52 | $9,226.36 | $9,348.15 |
$-95.94 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 11:20am ET | $170.46 | 54 | $9,204.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 12:05pm ET | $168.70 | 54 | $9,109.53 | $9,252.84 |
$-95.31 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 1:25pm ET | $160.85 | 57 | $9,168.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:25am ET | $157.58 | 57 | $8,982.06 | $9,066.45 |
$-186.39 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:45am ET | $141.86 | 63 | $8,936.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 1:05pm ET | $140.33 | 63 | $8,840.79 | $8,970.38 |
$-96.07 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 2:25pm ET | $133.16 | 67 | $8,921.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 3:25pm ET | $131.75 | 67 | $8,827.25 | $8,875.91 |
$-94.47 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:15pm ET | $135.63 | 65 | $8,815.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $127.40 | 65 | $8,281.00 | $8,341.28 |
$-534.63 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:50am ET | $134.80 | 61 | $8,222.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 2:15pm ET | $135.94 | 61 | $8,292.34 | $8,410.82 |
+$69.54 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:45am ET | $138.87 | 60 | $8,332.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 11:20am ET | $136.64 | 60 | $8,198.40 | $8,277.02 |
$-133.80 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 1:30pm ET | $138.17 | 59 | $8,152.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 2:00pm ET | $140.44 | 59 | $8,285.67 | $8,410.66 |
+$133.64 (+1.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 2:45pm ET | $141.34 | 59 | $8,339.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 3:15pm ET | $142.05 | 59 | $8,380.95 | $8,452.55 |
+$41.89 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 11:10am ET | $141.03 | 59 | $8,320.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 11:40am ET | $140.78 | 59 | $8,306.02 | $8,437.80 |
$-14.75 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $109.54 | 77 | $8,434.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:45pm ET | $108.20 | 77 | $8,331.40 | $8,334.77 |
$-103.03 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $116.95 | 71 | $8,303.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $115.54 | 71 | $8,202.99 | $8,234.30 |
$-100.47 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $116.81 | 70 | $8,176.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 1:05pm ET | $115.62 | 70 | $8,093.40 | $8,151.00 |
$-83.30 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 2:50pm ET | $107.21 | 76 | $8,148.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 3:45pm ET | $105.76 | 76 | $8,038.14 | $8,040.80 |
$-110.20 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $109.60 | 73 | $8,000.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $108.36 | 73 | $7,909.92 | $7,949.92 |
$-90.88 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $120.21 | 66 | $7,934.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $123.28 | 66 | $8,136.48 | $8,152.21 |
+$202.29 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 12:05pm ET | $126.11 | 64 | $8,071.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $124.83 | 64 | $7,989.44 | $8,070.61 |
$-81.60 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $120.00 | 67 | $8,039.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $138.20 | 67 | $9,259.40 | $9,290.34 |
+$1,219.73 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.35 | 62 | $9,198.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $140.24 | 62 | $8,694.88 | $8,787.21 |
$-503.13 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.98 | 56 | $8,734.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $147.27 | 56 | $8,247.29 | $8,299.62 |
$-487.59 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.16 | 54 | $8,216.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $175.10 | 54 | $9,455.40 | $9,538.38 |
+$1,238.76 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.94 | 42 | $9,321.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.41 | 42 | $8,459.30 | $8,676.13 |
$-862.25 (-9.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.82 | 41 | $8,602.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $241.37 | 41 | $9,896.19 | $9,969.66 |
+$1,293.53 (+15.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $317.99 | 31 | $9,857.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $395.64 | 31 | $12,264.84 | $12,376.81 |
+$2,407.15 (+24.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $354.78 | 34 | $12,062.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $336.98 | 34 | $11,457.49 | $11,771.78 |
$-605.03 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $353.54 | 33 | $11,666.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $407.48 | 33 | $13,446.68 | $13,551.63 |
+$1,779.85 (+15.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $367.21 | 36 | $13,219.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $348.71 | 36 | $12,553.74 | $12,885.81 |
$-665.82 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $333.29 | 38 | $12,665.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.93 | 38 | $11,625.34 | $11,846.13 |
$-1,039.68 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.53 | 36 | $11,719.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $301.93 | 36 | $10,869.66 | $10,996.71 |
$-849.42 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.16 | 38 | $10,722.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 11:05am ET | $268.04 | 38 | $10,185.52 | $10,460.15 |
$-536.56 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.68 | 41 | $10,277.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $237.97 | 41 | $9,756.77 | $9,939.04 |
$-521.11 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.88 | 37 | $9,689.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 11:10am ET | $247.70 | 37 | $9,164.90 | $9,414.38 |
$-524.66 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.73 | 38 | $9,337.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $231.30 | 38 | $8,789.40 | $8,866.04 |
$-548.34 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.35 | 35 | $8,832.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $238.07 | 35 | $8,332.45 | $8,366.24 |
$-499.80 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $258.01 | 32 | $8,256.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $296.97 | 32 | $9,503.04 | $9,612.96 |
+$1,246.72 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,612.96
Net Profit/Loss:
$-387.04
Total Return:
-3.87%