AVGO Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 32 trades in period
+2.16%
Last Year Return
$14,220.48
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$13,920.22
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
25
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.1/35
Total Return
13.6/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
28.7/100
× Confidence 0.87
= 25.1
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,380
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$13,920.22
Current Value
$14,220.48
Period P&L
$300.26
Max Drawdown
-20.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
14 /
18
Best Trade
+15.44%
Worst Trade
-15.96%
Avg Trade Return
+0.25%
Avg Hold Time
3.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$873,181.92
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$300.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$300.26
Gross Return
+2.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.16%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $13,920.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 11:40am ET | $336.28 | 41 | $13,787.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 10:25am ET | $332.81 | 41 | $13,645.21 | $13,778.04 |
$-142.18 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:55am ET | $330.50 | 41 | $13,550.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $339.13 | 41 | $13,904.33 | $14,131.87 |
+$353.83 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 12:40pm ET | $358.95 | 39 | $13,998.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 2:50pm ET | $355.10 | 39 | $13,848.90 | $13,981.92 |
$-149.95 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:15am ET | $356.05 | 39 | $13,885.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 1:00pm ET | $351.39 | 39 | $13,704.21 | $13,800.18 |
$-181.74 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 10:20am ET | $361.12 | 38 | $13,722.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 11:25am ET | $356.85 | 38 | $13,560.11 | $13,637.73 |
$-162.45 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 11:20am ET | $356.54 | 38 | $13,548.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 11:50am ET | $359.36 | 38 | $13,655.68 | $13,744.89 |
+$107.16 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 12:40pm ET | $368.64 | 37 | $13,639.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $378.52 | 37 | $14,005.24 | $14,110.45 |
+$365.56 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 10:30am ET | $381.62 | 36 | $13,738.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 12:05pm ET | $377.51 | 36 | $13,590.36 | $13,962.67 |
$-147.78 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:20am ET | $368.55 | 37 | $13,636.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 10:55am ET | $363.83 | 37 | $13,461.75 | $13,787.92 |
$-174.75 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:15am ET | $341.18 | 40 | $13,647.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 11:45am ET | $346.85 | 40 | $13,874.00 | $14,014.72 |
+$226.80 (+1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $358.47 | 39 | $13,980.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:50am ET | $353.50 | 39 | $13,786.50 | $13,820.83 |
$-193.89 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:30am ET | $368.47 | 37 | $13,633.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 3:25pm ET | $378.08 | 37 | $13,988.96 | $14,176.40 |
+$355.57 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:30am ET | $394.79 | 35 | $13,817.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 12:00pm ET | $400.13 | 35 | $14,004.55 | $14,363.30 |
+$186.90 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 11:05am ET | $403.01 | 35 | $14,105.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 11:35am ET | $402.01 | 35 | $14,070.35 | $14,328.30 |
$-35.00 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 1:45pm ET | $407.19 | 35 | $14,251.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $397.16 | 35 | $13,900.51 | $13,977.33 |
$-350.97 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 2:15pm ET | $407.54 | 34 | $13,856.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $368.59 | 34 | $12,531.89 | $12,653.03 |
$-1,324.30 (-9.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 11:05am ET | $344.30 | 36 | $12,394.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 11:35am ET | $350.85 | 36 | $12,630.60 | $12,888.95 |
+$235.92 (+1.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 10:30am ET | $352.73 | 36 | $12,698.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $347.04 | 36 | $12,493.55 | $12,684.40 |
$-204.55 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $345.93 | 36 | $12,453.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:50am ET | $349.34 | 36 | $12,576.24 | $12,807.09 |
+$122.69 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $348.78 | 36 | $12,556.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $344.91 | 36 | $12,416.76 | $12,667.77 |
$-139.32 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $340.20 | 37 | $12,587.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $349.51 | 37 | $12,931.87 | $13,012.43 |
+$344.66 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 2:30pm ET | $353.42 | 36 | $12,723.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:00pm ET | $355.87 | 36 | $12,811.32 | $13,100.63 |
+$88.20 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $332.68 | 39 | $12,974.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $329.07 | 39 | $12,833.54 | $12,959.64 |
$-140.99 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $329.05 | 39 | $12,832.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $337.65 | 39 | $13,168.35 | $13,295.04 |
+$335.40 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $344.54 | 38 | $13,092.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $342.51 | 38 | $13,015.19 | $13,217.90 |
$-77.14 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $326.71 | 40 | $13,068.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $375.73 | 40 | $15,029.20 | $15,178.70 |
+$1,960.80 (+15.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.09 | 38 | $14,823.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.33 | 38 | $17,112.54 | $17,467.82 |
+$2,289.12 (+15.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
47d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.34 | 35 | $17,091.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $410.39 | 35 | $14,363.48 | $14,739.40 |
$-2,728.42 (-16.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $402.68 | 36 | $14,496.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $380.40 | 36 | $13,694.58 | $13,937.32 |
$-802.08 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $395.25 | 35 | $13,833.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $373.16 | 35 | $13,060.60 | $13,164.17 |
$-773.15 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $374.00 | 35 | $13,090.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $430.79 | 35 | $15,077.65 | $15,151.82 |
+$1,987.65 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
32d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $426.41 | 35 | $14,924.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $399.80 | 35 | $13,993.07 | $14,220.48 |
$-931.34 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,220.48
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,220.48
Total Return:
+42.20%