AXP Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 40 trades in period
+9.12%
Last Year Return
$9,872.84
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,047.78
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
6
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality
7.0/100
× Confidence 0.81
= 5.7
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
21,187
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
260 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,047.78
Current Value
$9,872.84
Period P&L
$825.06
Max Drawdown
-17.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
20 /
20
Best Trade
+6.73%
Worst Trade
-5.00%
Avg Trade Return
+0.24%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$754,289.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$825.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$825.06
Gross Return
+9.12%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.12%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 260 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,047.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:35am ET | $339.68 | 26 | $8,831.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 11:05am ET | $340.24 | 26 | $8,846.11 | $9,062.34 |
+$14.56 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:05am ET | $334.84 | 27 | $9,040.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 2:45pm ET | $331.39 | 27 | $8,947.40 | $8,969.06 |
$-93.28 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 3:00pm ET | $331.54 | 27 | $8,951.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 3:30pm ET | $330.10 | 27 | $8,912.70 | $8,930.18 |
$-38.88 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 12:30pm ET | $323.84 | 27 | $8,743.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 11:35am ET | $332.11 | 27 | $8,966.97 | $9,153.47 |
+$223.29 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 11:40am ET | $332.10 | 27 | $8,966.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 12:10pm ET | $333.94 | 27 | $9,016.38 | $9,203.15 |
+$49.68 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 11:35am ET | $340.87 | 26 | $8,862.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 12:05pm ET | $346.13 | 26 | $8,999.38 | $9,339.97 |
+$136.82 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 3:30pm ET | $354.93 | 26 | $9,228.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 1:20pm ET | $351.25 | 26 | $9,132.50 | $9,244.42 |
$-95.55 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 1:00pm ET | $354.92 | 26 | $9,227.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 1:30pm ET | $359.39 | 26 | $9,344.14 | $9,360.64 |
+$116.22 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 10:35am ET | $364.28 | 25 | $9,107.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 2:55pm ET | $360.47 | 25 | $9,011.63 | $9,265.27 |
$-95.37 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:35am ET | $361.46 | 25 | $9,036.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 11:05am ET | $362.65 | 25 | $9,066.25 | $9,295.02 |
+$29.75 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:20am ET | $362.08 | 25 | $9,052.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 10:50am ET | $361.51 | 25 | $9,037.75 | $9,280.77 |
$-14.25 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:35am ET | $362.14 | 25 | $9,053.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 12:05pm ET | $364.79 | 25 | $9,119.75 | $9,347.15 |
+$66.38 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:35pm ET | $367.78 | 25 | $9,194.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:10am ET | $363.90 | 25 | $9,097.50 | $9,250.15 |
$-97.00 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 10:45am ET | $370.31 | 24 | $8,887.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 11:15am ET | $375.69 | 24 | $9,016.56 | $9,379.27 |
+$129.12 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:45pm ET | $340.51 | 27 | $9,193.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 1:15pm ET | $343.58 | 27 | $9,276.53 | $9,462.08 |
+$82.81 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 1:35pm ET | $344.41 | 27 | $9,298.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:40pm ET | $340.68 | 27 | $9,198.36 | $9,361.51 |
$-100.57 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:20am ET | $350.34 | 26 | $9,108.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 11:50am ET | $354.90 | 26 | $9,227.40 | $9,480.07 |
+$118.56 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:50pm ET | $355.16 | 26 | $9,234.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 1:20pm ET | $361.71 | 26 | $9,404.46 | $9,650.25 |
+$170.18 (+1.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 1:25pm ET | $361.63 | 26 | $9,402.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 1:55pm ET | $365.61 | 26 | $9,505.86 | $9,753.86 |
+$103.61 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 11:00am ET | $367.00 | 26 | $9,542.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:20am ET | $363.05 | 26 | $9,439.30 | $9,651.16 |
$-102.70 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 3:15pm ET | $363.61 | 26 | $9,453.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 3:45pm ET | $368.53 | 26 | $9,581.78 | $9,779.08 |
+$127.92 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 3:50pm ET | $368.50 | 26 | $9,581.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:20am ET | $373.51 | 26 | $9,711.13 | $9,909.21 |
+$130.13 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 11:05am ET | $366.69 | 27 | $9,900.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 2:10pm ET | $362.97 | 27 | $9,800.19 | $9,808.77 |
$-100.44 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 10:15am ET | $370.68 | 26 | $9,637.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:10am ET | $380.67 | 26 | $9,897.37 | $10,068.46 |
+$259.69 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 3:15pm ET | $385.53 | 26 | $10,023.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:05am ET | $381.52 | 26 | $9,919.52 | $9,964.20 |
$-104.26 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 11:15am ET | $381.58 | 26 | $9,921.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 11:45am ET | $381.11 | 26 | $9,908.86 | $9,951.98 |
$-12.22 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 1:05pm ET | $383.16 | 25 | $9,578.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:30am ET | $382.20 | 25 | $9,555.00 | $9,928.11 |
$-23.87 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 2:20pm ET | $371.55 | 26 | $9,660.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $381.22 | 26 | $9,911.76 | $10,179.57 |
+$251.46 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $381.50 | 26 | $9,918.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $377.99 | 26 | $9,827.74 | $10,088.44 |
$-91.13 (-0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:45am ET | $382.81 | 26 | $9,953.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $378.39 | 26 | $9,838.14 | $9,973.52 |
$-114.92 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $380.78 | 26 | $9,900.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $379.58 | 26 | $9,869.08 | $9,942.32 |
$-31.20 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $364.85 | 27 | $9,850.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $358.11 | 27 | $9,668.97 | $9,760.47 |
$-181.85 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $358.78 | 27 | $9,687.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $366.34 | 27 | $9,891.18 | $9,964.59 |
+$204.12 (+2.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:05pm ET | $369.28 | 26 | $9,601.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $362.44 | 26 | $9,423.44 | $9,786.75 |
$-177.84 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $354.64 | 27 | $9,575.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $350.33 | 27 | $9,458.91 | $9,670.51 |
$-116.24 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $356.46 | 27 | $9,624.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $360.91 | 27 | $9,744.64 | $9,790.73 |
+$120.22 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $360.91 | 27 | $9,744.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $357.23 | 27 | $9,645.08 | $9,691.32 |
$-99.41 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 2:30pm ET | $361.56 | 26 | $9,400.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:00pm ET | $362.82 | 26 | $9,433.32 | $9,724.08 |
+$32.76 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.79 | 32 | $9,689.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $323.18 | 32 | $10,341.76 | $10,376.62 |
+$652.54 (+6.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $335.54 | 30 | $10,066.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $318.75 | 30 | $9,562.42 | $9,872.84 |
$-503.78 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
39d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,872.84
Net Profit/Loss:
$-127.16
Total Return:
-1.27%