COIN Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 48 trades in period
-20.93%
Last Year Return
$15,232.25
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$19,263.28
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026
33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
13.4/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
33.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 33.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,283
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$19,263.28
Current Value
$15,232.25
Period P&L
$-4,031.03
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
15 /
33
Best Trade
+15.91%
Worst Trade
-7.89%
Avg Trade Return
-0.34%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,943,832.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,031.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,031.03
Gross Return
-20.93%
Net Return (after fees)
-20.93%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $19,263.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:20am ET | $315.82 | 60 | $18,949.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 12:25pm ET | $312.26 | 60 | $18,735.60 | $19,049.39 |
$-213.89 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 12:20pm ET | $311.48 | 61 | $18,999.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $325.50 | 61 | $19,855.58 | $19,904.99 |
+$855.60 (+4.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:05am ET | $328.25 | 60 | $19,695.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 10:35am ET | $331.61 | 60 | $19,896.60 | $20,106.59 |
+$201.60 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $346.77 | 57 | $19,766.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $363.94 | 57 | $20,744.84 | $21,085.32 |
+$978.73 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 1:40pm ET | $369.86 | 57 | $21,082.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 11:55am ET | $379.45 | 57 | $21,628.65 | $21,631.95 |
+$546.63 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 12:35pm ET | $382.73 | 56 | $21,432.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 1:00pm ET | $377.14 | 56 | $21,119.84 | $21,318.91 |
$-313.04 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:25am ET | $385.56 | 55 | $21,205.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 10:55am ET | $387.02 | 55 | $21,286.10 | $21,399.21 |
+$80.30 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:05am ET | $346.99 | 61 | $21,166.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 3:55pm ET | $341.41 | 61 | $20,826.01 | $21,058.83 |
$-340.38 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:20am ET | $347.48 | 60 | $20,848.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:50am ET | $343.69 | 60 | $20,621.44 | $20,831.47 |
$-227.36 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 10:40am ET | $342.44 | 60 | $20,546.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 10:55am ET | $338.69 | 60 | $20,321.40 | $20,606.47 |
$-225.00 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 12:50pm ET | $324.33 | 63 | $20,432.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $345.51 | 63 | $21,767.13 | $21,940.81 |
+$1,334.34 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 10:05am ET | $346.97 | 63 | $21,859.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 3:50pm ET | $355.76 | 63 | $22,413.02 | $22,494.72 |
+$553.91 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 11:55am ET | $364.93 | 61 | $22,260.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 10:40am ET | $360.88 | 61 | $22,013.68 | $22,247.67 |
$-247.05 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:05am ET | $351.70 | 63 | $22,157.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 1:10pm ET | $348.14 | 63 | $21,932.82 | $22,023.39 |
$-224.28 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:50am ET | $317.25 | 69 | $21,890.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 11:10am ET | $312.60 | 69 | $21,569.40 | $21,702.54 |
$-320.85 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:15am ET | $293.07 | 74 | $21,686.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 10:30am ET | $289.99 | 74 | $21,459.26 | $21,474.99 |
$-227.55 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $284.86 | 75 | $21,364.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $273.00 | 75 | $20,475.00 | $20,585.49 |
$-889.50 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $252.83 | 81 | $20,478.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:20am ET | $250.03 | 81 | $20,252.03 | $20,358.69 |
$-226.80 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 3:30pm ET | $250.79 | 81 | $20,313.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:05am ET | $257.26 | 81 | $20,838.06 | $20,882.76 |
+$524.07 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 12:40pm ET | $261.79 | 79 | $20,681.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 10:00am ET | $275.26 | 79 | $21,745.15 | $21,946.89 |
+$1,064.13 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:15am ET | $277.67 | 79 | $21,935.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 11:20am ET | $273.35 | 79 | $21,594.26 | $21,605.22 |
$-341.67 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:10am ET | $271.30 | 79 | $21,432.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:25am ET | $268.53 | 79 | $21,213.48 | $21,386.39 |
$-218.83 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $275.63 | 77 | $21,223.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 10:10am ET | $272.59 | 77 | $20,989.05 | $21,151.92 |
$-234.47 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:25am ET | $279.49 | 75 | $20,961.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $275.36 | 75 | $20,651.66 | $20,841.83 |
$-310.09 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 3:10pm ET | $276.94 | 75 | $20,770.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $265.39 | 75 | $19,904.16 | $19,975.49 |
$-866.34 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 10:25am ET | $253.67 | 78 | $19,786.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 12:30pm ET | $250.43 | 78 | $19,533.35 | $19,722.58 |
$-252.91 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 11:15am ET | $235.56 | 83 | $19,551.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 2:05pm ET | $232.81 | 83 | $19,323.23 | $19,494.33 |
$-228.25 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $233.29 | 83 | $19,363.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $254.11 | 83 | $21,091.13 | $21,222.39 |
+$1,728.06 (+8.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:45pm ET | $255.85 | 82 | $20,979.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $252.62 | 82 | $20,714.43 | $20,957.12 |
$-265.27 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $244.64 | 85 | $20,794.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $250.77 | 85 | $21,315.03 | $21,477.75 |
+$520.63 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:50am ET | $252.70 | 84 | $21,226.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 12:25pm ET | $250.02 | 84 | $21,001.68 | $21,252.63 |
$-225.12 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $242.08 | 87 | $21,060.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $238.56 | 87 | $20,754.72 | $20,946.43 |
$-306.20 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $159.17 | 131 | $20,851.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:00pm ET | $163.38 | 131 | $21,402.78 | $21,497.94 |
+$551.51 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $165.05 | 130 | $21,456.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $163.10 | 130 | $21,203.65 | $21,245.09 |
$-252.85 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $166.17 | 127 | $21,103.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $164.30 | 127 | $20,866.10 | $21,007.60 |
$-237.49 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $157.26 | 133 | $20,915.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $161.25 | 133 | $21,446.25 | $21,538.27 |
+$530.67 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $203.68 | 105 | $21,386.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $190.04 | 105 | $19,954.20 | $20,106.07 |
$-1,432.20 (-6.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $164.45 | 122 | $20,062.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 10:05am ET | $190.62 | 122 | $23,255.64 | $23,298.81 |
+$3,192.74 (+15.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.16 | 113 | $23,183.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $194.87 | 113 | $22,019.75 | $22,135.48 |
$-1,163.33 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.40 | 111 | $22,133.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.40 | 111 | $20,578.85 | $20,580.37 |
$-1,555.11 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $171.60 | 119 | $20,420.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $162.73 | 119 | $19,364.87 | $19,524.84 |
$-1,055.53 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.60 | 114 | $19,447.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $161.28 | 114 | $18,385.92 | $18,462.93 |
$-1,061.91 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.41 | 110 | $18,305.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $156.80 | 110 | $17,248.55 | $17,405.83 |
$-1,057.10 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.03 | 104 | $17,267.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.23 | 104 | $16,143.40 | $16,282.11 |
$-1,123.72 (-6.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.90 | 93 | $16,172.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $163.68 | 93 | $15,221.78 | $15,331.19 |
$-950.92 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.41 | 110 | $18,305.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $153.28 | 110 | $16,860.80 | $13,886.34 |
$-1,444.85 (-7.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $172.89 | 80 | $13,831.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $164.21 | 80 | $13,136.40 | $13,191.70 |
$-694.64 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
27.2d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $178.15 | 74 | $13,183.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.73 | 74 | $15,224.02 | $15,232.25 |
+$2,040.55 (+15.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,232.25
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,232.25
Total Return:
+52.32%