DOGEUSD Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 49 trades in period
-6.29%
Last Year Return
$12,362.82
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$13,131.62
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
21.8 oversold
20d Trend
-37.1%
5d Trend
-36.5%
EMA20 Dist
-35.0%
ATR%
12.1%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jul 29, 2026
14
Lifetime
Confidence: 72%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.3/35
Total Return
11.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality
18.8/100
× Confidence 0.72
= 13.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (72%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,432
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
367 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$13,131.62
Current Value
$12,362.82
Period P&L
$-826.58
Max Drawdown
-36.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
14 /
35
Best Trade
+15.04%
Worst Trade
-7.40%
Avg Trade Return
-0.07%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$1,110,482.49
Estimated Fees
$2,776.21
Gross P&L
$-826.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,602.79
Gross Return
-6.29%
Net Return (after fees)
-27.44%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 DOGEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 367 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $13,131.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 10:15am ET | $0.2474 | 53,082 | $13,131.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 12:55pm ET | $0.2449 | 53,082 | $12,997.66 | $12,997.85 |
$-133.77 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:05am ET | $0.2332 | 55,746 | $12,997.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 11:20am ET | $0.2304 | 55,746 | $12,842.76 | $12,842.88 |
$-154.97 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 3:50pm ET | $0.2327 | 55,197 | $12,842.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.2444 | 55,197 | $13,490.70 | $13,490.89 |
+$648.01 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:35am ET | $0.2460 | 54,847 | $13,490.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 11:05am ET | $0.2434 | 54,847 | $13,347.57 | $13,347.74 |
$-143.15 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 12:10pm ET | $0.2572 | 51,904 | $13,347.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 10:10am ET | $0.2543 | 51,904 | $13,199.59 | $13,199.70 |
$-148.04 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 11:20am ET | $0.2590 | 50,973 | $13,199.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 1:50pm ET | $0.2561 | 50,973 | $13,052.15 | $13,052.39 |
$-147.31 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 10:25am ET | $0.2637 | 49,506 | $13,052.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.2582 | 49,506 | $12,782.45 | $12,782.58 |
$-269.81 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.2555 | 50,025 | $12,782.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 10:50am ET | $0.2525 | 50,025 | $12,628.81 | $12,629.00 |
$-153.58 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 1:55pm ET | $0.2143 | 58,939 | $12,628.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.1984 | 58,939 | $11,694.68 | $11,694.82 |
$-934.18 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:15am ET | $0.2007 | 58,284 | $11,694.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 11:10am ET | $0.1985 | 58,284 | $11,571.71 | $11,571.84 |
$-122.98 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 12:00pm ET | $0.1864 | 62,074 | $11,571.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 12:30pm ET | $0.1843 | 62,074 | $11,438.38 | $11,438.38 |
$-133.46 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $0.1982 | 57,722 | $11,438.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 11:05am ET | $0.2042 | 57,722 | $11,784.52 | $11,784.71 |
+$346.33 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 11:30am ET | $0.1960 | 60,123 | $11,784.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 12:00pm ET | $0.1945 | 60,123 | $11,692.72 | $11,692.72 |
$-91.99 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 12:35pm ET | $0.2048 | 57,082 | $11,692.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.2018 | 57,082 | $11,520.29 | $11,520.33 |
$-172.39 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 3:40pm ET | $0.1877 | 61,379 | $11,520.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.1742 | 61,379 | $10,690.38 | $10,690.49 |
$-829.84 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:15am ET | $0.1687 | 63,377 | $10,690.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 10:30am ET | $0.1666 | 63,377 | $10,555.44 | $10,555.50 |
$-134.99 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:50am ET | $0.1678 | 62,908 | $10,555.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.1603 | 62,908 | $10,082.89 | $10,082.90 |
$-472.60 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $0.1667 | 60,499 | $10,082.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 11:20am ET | $0.1716 | 60,499 | $10,382.84 | $10,382.98 |
+$300.08 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:25am ET | $0.1598 | 64,974 | $10,382.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:15am ET | $0.1582 | 64,974 | $10,278.89 | $10,279.02 |
$-103.96 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 12:05pm ET | $0.1427 | 72,041 | $10,278.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:00pm ET | $0.1406 | 72,041 | $10,131.57 | $10,131.67 |
$-147.35 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 11:00am ET | $0.1477 | 68,586 | $10,131.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:50pm ET | $0.1518 | 68,586 | $10,411.35 | $10,411.50 |
+$279.83 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:20am ET | $0.1493 | 69,716 | $10,411.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 3:45pm ET | $0.1531 | 69,716 | $10,672.13 | $10,672.24 |
+$260.74 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.1429 | 74,681 | $10,672.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:40am ET | $0.1468 | 74,681 | $10,961.15 | $10,961.29 |
+$289.05 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 12:45pm ET | $0.1517 | 72,270 | $10,961.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.1487 | 72,270 | $10,748.72 | $10,748.82 |
$-212.47 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $0.1510 | 71,170 | $10,748.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:00am ET | $0.1494 | 71,170 | $10,629.95 | $10,629.97 |
$-118.85 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.1441 | 73,778 | $10,629.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:55am ET | $0.1425 | 73,778 | $10,514.84 | $10,514.88 |
$-115.09 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.1429 | 73,571 | $10,514.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 11:00am ET | $0.1477 | 73,571 | $10,869.38 | $10,869.49 |
+$354.61 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:40pm ET | $0.1390 | 78,220 | $10,869.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:40am ET | $0.1374 | 78,220 | $10,750.17 | $10,750.20 |
$-119.29 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 10:50am ET | $0.1329 | 80,877 | $10,750.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 11:35am ET | $0.1315 | 80,877 | $10,635.33 | $10,635.35 |
$-114.85 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:05am ET | $0.1353 | 78,612 | $10,635.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $0.1336 | 78,612 | $10,498.63 | $10,498.64 |
$-136.71 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:05am ET | $0.1318 | 79,631 | $10,498.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 12:30pm ET | $0.1301 | 79,631 | $10,356.81 | $10,356.90 |
$-141.74 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 11:30am ET | $0.1290 | 80,273 | $10,356.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 1:10pm ET | $0.1277 | 80,273 | $10,249.79 | $10,249.86 |
$-107.04 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $0.1371 | 74,740 | $10,249.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.1465 | 74,740 | $10,949.41 | $10,949.43 |
+$699.57 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.1492 | 73,377 | $10,949.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $0.1541 | 73,377 | $11,305.93 | $11,306.04 |
+$356.61 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $0.1407 | 80,360 | $11,305.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.1387 | 80,360 | $11,144.32 | $11,144.39 |
$-161.65 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $0.1409 | 79,111 | $11,144.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $0.1393 | 79,111 | $11,019.37 | $11,019.39 |
$-125.00 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.1379 | 79,891 | $11,019.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $0.1417 | 79,891 | $11,321.35 | $11,321.38 |
+$301.99 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $0.1427 | 79,336 | $11,321.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.1478 | 79,336 | $11,725.86 | $11,725.99 |
+$404.61 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.1502 | 78,048 | $11,725.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $0.1486 | 78,048 | $11,599.49 | $11,599.55 |
$-126.44 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:40pm ET | $0.1276 | 90,919 | $11,599.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.1241 | 90,919 | $11,285.78 | $11,285.88 |
$-313.67 (-2.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.1249 | 90,388 | $11,285.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:30pm ET | $0.1235 | 90,388 | $11,159.30 | $11,159.34 |
$-126.54 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $0.1228 | 90,851 | $11,159.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:25am ET | $0.1250 | 90,851 | $11,352.74 | $11,352.75 |
+$193.41 (+1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:25pm ET | $0.1168 | 97,189 | $11,352.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:10pm ET | $0.1156 | 97,189 | $11,237.96 | $11,238.07 |
$-114.68 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $0.1091 | 102,969 | $11,238.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 1:25pm ET | $0.1079 | 102,969 | $11,108.30 | $11,108.33 |
$-129.74 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.1095 | 101,400 | $11,108.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:15am ET | $0.1081 | 101,400 | $10,962.35 | $10,962.38 |
$-145.95 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.0975 | 112,434 | $10,962.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.1000 | 112,434 | $11,240.03 | $11,240.09 |
+$277.71 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $0.0954 | 117,836 | $11,240.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.0923 | 117,836 | $10,870.94 | $10,871.03 |
$-369.06 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:20pm ET | $0.0938 | 115,910 | $10,870.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $0.0927 | 115,910 | $10,746.65 | $10,746.72 |
$-124.31 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET | $0.0928 | 115,805 | $10,746.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 5:15am ET | $0.1068 | 115,805 | $12,362.82 | $12,362.82 |
+$1,558.32 (+15.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
36.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,362.82
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,362.82
Total Return:
+23.63%