ETHUSD Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 46 trades in period
+2.80%
Last Year Return
$10,117.17
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$9,752.21
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
7
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
2.8/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
7.5/100
× Confidence 0.90
= 6.8
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,166
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,752.21
Current Value
$10,117.17
Period P&L
$272.64
Max Drawdown
-36.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
15 /
31
Best Trade
+15.37%
Worst Trade
-6.55%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
13.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$760,272.10
Estimated Fees
$1,900.68
Gross P&L
$272.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,628.04
Gross Return
+2.80%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.69%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,752.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:40am ET | $4,024.70 | 2 | $8,049.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 12:20pm ET | $3,983.73 | 2 | $7,967.46 | $9,670.27 |
$-81.94 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 1:20pm ET | $4,014.09 | 2 | $8,028.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $4,179.05 | 2 | $8,358.10 | $10,000.19 |
+$329.92 (+4.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $4,319.60 | 2 | $8,639.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 10:30am ET | $4,408.10 | 2 | $8,816.20 | $10,177.19 |
+$177.00 (+2.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 11:55am ET | $4,439.39 | 2 | $8,878.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 12:25pm ET | $4,551.96 | 2 | $9,103.92 | $10,402.33 |
+$225.14 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 12:30pm ET | $4,560.20 | 2 | $9,120.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 1:00pm ET | $4,490.89 | 2 | $8,981.78 | $10,263.71 |
$-138.62 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 10:05am ET | $4,660.61 | 2 | $9,321.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 10:35am ET | $4,625.95 | 2 | $9,251.90 | $10,194.39 |
$-69.32 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $4,513.01 | 2 | $9,026.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 10:50am ET | $4,458.01 | 2 | $8,916.02 | $10,084.39 |
$-110.00 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 1:55pm ET | $4,239.00 | 2 | $8,478.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $3,961.22 | 2 | $7,922.44 | $9,528.83 |
$-555.56 (-6.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:15am ET | $4,004.92 | 2 | $8,009.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:30am ET | $3,963.16 | 2 | $7,926.32 | $9,445.31 |
$-83.52 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 12:00pm ET | $3,834.38 | 2 | $7,668.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 12:30pm ET | $3,795.29 | 2 | $7,590.58 | $9,367.13 |
$-78.18 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $3,928.41 | 2 | $7,856.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 11:05am ET | $4,032.60 | 2 | $8,065.20 | $9,575.51 |
+$208.38 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 11:45am ET | $3,881.07 | 2 | $7,762.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 12:15pm ET | $3,890.87 | 2 | $7,781.74 | $9,595.11 |
+$19.60 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 12:30pm ET | $4,205.51 | 2 | $8,411.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 10:00am ET | $4,155.76 | 2 | $8,311.52 | $9,495.61 |
$-99.50 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 11:15am ET | $3,879.40 | 2 | $7,758.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 12:50pm ET | $3,832.50 | 2 | $7,665.00 | $9,401.81 |
$-93.80 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $3,574.10 | 2 | $7,148.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 10:45am ET | $3,529.10 | 2 | $7,058.20 | $9,311.81 |
$-90.00 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:35am ET | $3,378.50 | 2 | $6,757.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 1:45pm ET | $3,473.48 | 2 | $6,946.96 | $9,501.77 |
+$189.96 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 11:20am ET | $3,315.80 | 2 | $6,631.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 1:15pm ET | $3,416.48 | 2 | $6,832.96 | $9,703.13 |
+$201.36 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:25am ET | $3,235.00 | 2 | $6,470.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 12:45pm ET | $3,184.44 | 2 | $6,368.88 | $9,602.01 |
$-101.12 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:25am ET | $3,115.60 | 3 | $9,346.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:15am ET | $3,069.70 | 3 | $9,209.10 | $9,464.31 |
$-137.70 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 12:05pm ET | $2,796.80 | 3 | $8,390.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:00pm ET | $2,764.40 | 3 | $8,293.20 | $9,367.11 |
$-97.20 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 11:00am ET | $2,867.30 | 3 | $8,601.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:55pm ET | $2,940.13 | 3 | $8,820.39 | $9,585.60 |
+$218.49 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:25am ET | $2,928.46 | 3 | $8,785.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 2:05pm ET | $2,897.85 | 3 | $8,693.55 | $9,493.77 |
$-91.83 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $2,925.01 | 3 | $8,775.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:40am ET | $2,999.58 | 3 | $8,998.74 | $9,717.48 |
+$223.71 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $3,220.01 | 3 | $9,660.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:35am ET | $3,184.79 | 3 | $9,554.37 | $9,611.82 |
$-105.66 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $3,145.16 | 3 | $9,435.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:55am ET | $3,106.66 | 3 | $9,319.98 | $9,496.32 |
$-115.50 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $3,142.60 | 3 | $9,427.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 10:50am ET | $3,253.90 | 3 | $9,761.70 | $9,830.22 |
+$333.90 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:40pm ET | $3,232.72 | 3 | $9,698.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 2:05pm ET | $3,195.18 | 3 | $9,585.54 | $9,717.60 |
$-112.62 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:05am ET | $3,015.00 | 3 | $9,045.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $2,976.99 | 3 | $8,930.97 | $9,603.57 |
$-114.03 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 3:40pm ET | $2,978.50 | 3 | $8,935.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $2,913.40 | 3 | $8,740.20 | $9,408.27 |
$-195.30 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 11:40am ET | $2,943.12 | 3 | $8,829.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $2,911.78 | 3 | $8,735.34 | $9,314.25 |
$-94.02 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $3,136.63 | 2 | $6,273.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET | $3,103.42 | 2 | $6,206.84 | $9,247.83 |
$-66.42 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $3,189.60 | 2 | $6,379.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $3,279.15 | 2 | $6,558.30 | $9,426.93 |
+$179.10 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $3,099.41 | 3 | $9,298.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $3,066.71 | 3 | $9,200.13 | $9,328.83 |
$-98.10 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $3,109.40 | 3 | $9,328.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 2:15pm ET | $3,076.70 | 3 | $9,230.10 | $9,230.73 |
$-98.10 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $3,126.10 | 2 | $6,252.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 12:30pm ET | $3,091.50 | 2 | $6,183.00 | $9,161.53 |
$-69.20 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $3,182.76 | 2 | $6,365.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $3,328.80 | 2 | $6,657.60 | $9,453.61 |
+$292.08 (+4.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $3,367.60 | 2 | $6,735.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 1:30pm ET | $3,326.50 | 2 | $6,653.00 | $9,371.41 |
$-82.20 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $3,020.20 | 3 | $9,060.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:35am ET | $2,986.22 | 3 | $8,958.66 | $9,269.47 |
$-101.94 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $2,955.59 | 3 | $8,866.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET | $2,917.36 | 3 | $8,752.08 | $9,154.78 |
$-114.69 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $2,962.62 | 3 | $8,887.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $2,918.73 | 3 | $8,756.19 | $9,023.11 |
$-131.67 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $2,387.00 | 3 | $7,161.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $2,358.16 | 3 | $7,074.48 | $8,936.59 |
$-86.52 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $2,013.70 | 4 | $8,054.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET | $2,069.49 | 4 | $8,277.96 | $9,159.75 |
+$223.16 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $2,061.83 | 4 | $8,247.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $2,035.40 | 4 | $8,141.58 | $9,054.01 |
$-105.74 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $2,013.43 | 4 | $8,053.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 11:50am ET | $2,068.44 | 4 | $8,273.74 | $9,274.05 |
+$220.04 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET | $2,124.96 | 4 | $9,274.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 6:40am ET | $2,009.34 | 4 | $8,769.44 | $8,769.44 |
$-549.71 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 4:50pm ET | $2,192.28 | 4 | $8,769.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 6:00pm ET | $2,529.20 | 4 | $10,117.17 | $10,117.17 |
+$1,300.51 (+15.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,117.17
Net Profit/Loss:
+$117.17
Total Return:
+1.17%