HD Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 37 trades in period
-12.73%
Last Year Return
$7,942.61
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$9,101.04
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality
4.8/100
× Confidence 0.93
= 4.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
21,903
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,101.04
Current Value
$7,942.61
Period P&L
$-1,158.43
Max Drawdown
-24.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
12 /
25
Best Trade
+2.97%
Worst Trade
-5.31%
Avg Trade Return
-0.35%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$636,690.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,158.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,158.43
Gross Return
-12.73%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.73%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,101.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 10:40am ET | $410.38 | 22 | $9,028.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 11:10am ET | $408.73 | 22 | $8,992.06 | $9,064.74 |
$-36.30 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 10:30am ET | $410.41 | 22 | $9,028.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 10:10am ET | $405.87 | 22 | $8,929.14 | $8,964.97 |
$-99.77 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 12:35pm ET | $396.93 | 22 | $8,732.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $386.18 | 22 | $8,495.96 | $8,728.47 |
$-236.50 (-2.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 10:25am ET | $381.28 | 22 | $8,388.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:55am ET | $383.85 | 22 | $8,444.70 | $8,785.01 |
+$56.54 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 11:00am ET | $384.50 | 22 | $8,459.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:05am ET | $394.29 | 22 | $8,674.38 | $9,000.39 |
+$215.38 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:10am ET | $393.57 | 22 | $8,658.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 12:30pm ET | $389.51 | 22 | $8,569.22 | $8,911.18 |
$-89.21 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 10:40am ET | $391.76 | 22 | $8,618.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 11:10am ET | $392.04 | 22 | $8,624.88 | $8,917.34 |
+$6.16 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 12:25pm ET | $387.64 | 23 | $8,915.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 10:30am ET | $383.48 | 23 | $8,820.04 | $8,821.66 |
$-95.68 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 10:15am ET | $381.42 | 23 | $8,772.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 10:45am ET | $380.05 | 23 | $8,741.15 | $8,790.15 |
$-31.51 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 11:10am ET | $380.72 | 23 | $8,756.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $375.65 | 23 | $8,639.95 | $8,673.54 |
$-116.61 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 3:55pm ET | $378.44 | 22 | $8,325.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 10:25am ET | $372.84 | 22 | $8,202.37 | $8,550.23 |
$-123.31 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 1:05pm ET | $374.79 | 22 | $8,245.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $370.90 | 22 | $8,159.80 | $8,464.65 |
$-85.58 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:20am ET | $340.69 | 24 | $8,176.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:50am ET | $340.23 | 24 | $8,165.40 | $8,453.49 |
$-11.16 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $343.85 | 24 | $8,252.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 3:35pm ET | $352.58 | 24 | $8,461.98 | $8,663.07 |
+$209.58 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:55am ET | $356.14 | 24 | $8,547.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 12:25pm ET | $356.42 | 24 | $8,553.96 | $8,669.67 |
+$6.60 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 10:50am ET | $360.22 | 24 | $8,645.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $353.94 | 24 | $8,494.48 | $8,518.87 |
$-150.80 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:35am ET | $353.88 | 24 | $8,493.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $349.28 | 24 | $8,382.72 | $8,408.47 |
$-110.40 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:55pm ET | $350.34 | 24 | $8,408.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:35am ET | $359.95 | 24 | $8,638.80 | $8,639.11 |
+$230.64 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 12:20pm ET | $362.51 | 23 | $8,337.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 1:35pm ET | $358.82 | 23 | $8,252.75 | $8,554.20 |
$-84.91 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 11:40am ET | $357.22 | 23 | $8,216.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:10pm ET | $356.68 | 23 | $8,203.64 | $8,541.78 |
$-12.42 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 12:20pm ET | $347.60 | 24 | $8,342.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 3:45pm ET | $349.77 | 24 | $8,394.36 | $8,593.74 |
+$51.96 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $345.55 | 24 | $8,293.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $344.67 | 24 | $8,272.08 | $8,572.74 |
$-21.00 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $343.74 | 24 | $8,249.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $353.96 | 24 | $8,495.04 | $8,818.02 |
+$245.28 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:05am ET | $354.79 | 24 | $8,514.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $364.62 | 24 | $8,750.88 | $9,053.94 |
+$235.92 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $367.32 | 24 | $8,815.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $375.68 | 24 | $9,016.32 | $9,254.58 |
+$200.64 (+2.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 1:30pm ET | $377.67 | 24 | $9,064.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $375.90 | 24 | $9,021.60 | $9,212.10 |
$-42.48 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 11:20am ET | $382.17 | 24 | $9,171.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $375.90 | 24 | $9,021.60 | $9,061.74 |
$-150.36 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:25am ET | $378.74 | 23 | $8,710.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $384.51 | 23 | $8,843.73 | $9,194.56 |
+$132.82 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $374.32 | 24 | $8,983.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $378.10 | 24 | $9,074.40 | $9,285.28 |
+$90.72 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $389.27 | 23 | $8,953.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $385.03 | 23 | $8,855.69 | $9,187.76 |
$-97.52 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:30am ET | $389.64 | 23 | $8,961.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:05pm ET | $385.02 | 23 | $8,855.46 | $9,081.61 |
$-106.15 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:05pm ET | $386.13 | 23 | $8,880.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $381.06 | 23 | $8,764.38 | $8,965.00 |
$-116.61 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $389.37 | 23 | $8,955.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:25am ET | $385.44 | 23 | $8,865.12 | $8,874.61 |
$-90.39 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 11:55am ET | $390.07 | 22 | $8,581.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 12:25pm ET | $390.00 | 22 | $8,580.00 | $8,873.07 |
$-1.54 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $393.24 | 22 | $8,651.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $390.48 | 22 | $8,590.56 | $8,812.24 |
$-60.83 (-0.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $330.82 | 26 | $8,601.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $314.08 | 26 | $8,166.21 | $8,377.13 |
$-435.11 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
42.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $341.08 | 24 | $8,185.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $322.97 | 24 | $7,751.28 | $7,942.61 |
$-434.52 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
36d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,942.61
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,057.39
Total Return:
-20.57%