IBM Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 41 trades in period
+31.21%
Last Year Return
$15,936.53
Current Value
49%
Win Rate
$12,145.86
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
32
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
15.5/35
Total Return
14.8/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
3.6/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
42.0/100
× Confidence 0.76
= 31.7
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
23,403
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$12,145.86
Current Value
$15,936.53
Period P&L
$3,790.67
Max Drawdown
-13.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
20 /
21
Best Trade
+17.01%
Worst Trade
-5.23%
Avg Trade Return
+0.75%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,093,665.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,790.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,790.67
Gross Return
+31.21%
Net Return (after fees)
+31.21%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,145.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:25am ET | $279.00 | 43 | $11,997.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $286.80 | 43 | $12,332.40 | $12,481.26 |
+$335.40 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 1:15pm ET | $288.30 | 43 | $12,396.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $284.51 | 43 | $12,233.93 | $12,318.29 |
$-162.97 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $283.77 | 43 | $12,202.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 10:30am ET | $282.83 | 43 | $12,161.50 | $12,277.68 |
$-40.61 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 3:35pm ET | $285.76 | 42 | $12,001.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 10:05am ET | $291.61 | 42 | $12,247.62 | $12,523.59 |
+$245.91 (+2.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 12:45pm ET | $277.15 | 45 | $12,471.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $284.96 | 45 | $12,823.20 | $12,875.04 |
+$351.45 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 2:00pm ET | $279.65 | 46 | $12,863.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 2:30pm ET | $283.07 | 46 | $13,021.22 | $13,032.36 |
+$157.32 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 11:00am ET | $284.45 | 45 | $12,800.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 11:30am ET | $286.62 | 45 | $12,897.90 | $13,130.24 |
+$97.88 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 11:45am ET | $287.26 | 45 | $12,926.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 1:10pm ET | $284.31 | 45 | $12,793.95 | $12,997.49 |
$-132.75 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 11:15am ET | $279.57 | 46 | $12,860.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $294.43 | 46 | $13,543.78 | $13,681.17 |
+$683.68 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 11:00am ET | $297.77 | 45 | $13,399.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 11:45am ET | $305.74 | 45 | $13,758.30 | $14,040.05 |
+$358.88 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 11:35am ET | $311.14 | 45 | $14,001.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 12:05pm ET | $316.22 | 45 | $14,229.90 | $14,268.88 |
+$228.83 (+1.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 12:25pm ET | $317.67 | 44 | $13,977.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 3:50pm ET | $313.60 | 44 | $13,798.40 | $14,089.80 |
$-179.08 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 3:40pm ET | $306.82 | 45 | $13,806.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 3:15pm ET | $314.72 | 45 | $14,162.40 | $14,445.30 |
+$355.50 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 3:20pm ET | $314.52 | 45 | $14,153.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $307.22 | 45 | $13,824.90 | $14,116.80 |
$-328.50 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:15am ET | $309.58 | 45 | $13,930.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:55am ET | $306.37 | 45 | $13,786.65 | $13,972.58 |
$-144.22 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:20am ET | $305.28 | 45 | $13,737.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $302.22 | 45 | $13,599.90 | $13,834.88 |
$-137.70 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 10:40am ET | $300.28 | 46 | $13,812.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:05am ET | $296.22 | 46 | $13,626.12 | $13,648.12 |
$-186.76 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:50am ET | $296.83 | 45 | $13,357.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:55am ET | $304.29 | 45 | $13,693.05 | $13,983.82 |
+$335.70 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 11:00am ET | $304.35 | 45 | $13,695.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $300.89 | 45 | $13,539.83 | $13,827.78 |
$-156.04 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:10am ET | $306.56 | 45 | $13,795.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:35am ET | $303.45 | 45 | $13,655.03 | $13,687.60 |
$-140.18 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 12:20pm ET | $303.80 | 45 | $13,670.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 12:50pm ET | $306.81 | 45 | $13,806.45 | $13,823.27 |
+$135.67 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 12:55pm ET | $306.85 | 45 | $13,808.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 1:25pm ET | $309.07 | 45 | $13,908.02 | $13,923.27 |
+$100.00 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 12:20pm ET | $311.56 | 44 | $13,708.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 12:50pm ET | $311.68 | 44 | $13,713.92 | $13,928.55 |
+$5.28 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 10:10am ET | $303.86 | 45 | $13,673.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 10:00am ET | $299.14 | 45 | $13,461.30 | $13,716.37 |
$-212.18 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 12:50pm ET | $302.76 | 45 | $13,624.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 1:20pm ET | $303.56 | 45 | $13,660.20 | $13,752.37 |
+$36.00 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 2:15pm ET | $303.77 | 45 | $13,669.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 11:40am ET | $304.26 | 45 | $13,691.70 | $13,774.65 |
+$22.28 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 2:30pm ET | $307.38 | 44 | $13,524.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $303.46 | 44 | $13,352.24 | $13,602.17 |
$-172.48 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $299.99 | 45 | $13,499.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:30pm ET | $299.34 | 45 | $13,470.20 | $13,572.82 |
$-29.35 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 11:00am ET | $300.85 | 45 | $13,538.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $304.27 | 45 | $13,691.93 | $13,726.49 |
+$153.67 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $304.02 | 45 | $13,680.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 2:50pm ET | $311.86 | 45 | $14,033.92 | $14,079.51 |
+$353.02 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 2:10pm ET | $307.44 | 45 | $13,834.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $303.95 | 45 | $13,677.75 | $13,922.68 |
$-156.83 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:35pm ET | $306.59 | 45 | $13,796.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $295.18 | 45 | $13,283.10 | $13,409.46 |
$-513.22 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 3:05pm ET | $297.46 | 45 | $13,385.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 3:20pm ET | $294.32 | 45 | $13,244.40 | $13,268.16 |
$-141.30 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $313.06 | 42 | $13,148.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $296.99 | 42 | $12,473.58 | $12,593.22 |
$-674.94 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $291.06 | 43 | $12,515.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $297.08 | 43 | $12,774.44 | $12,852.08 |
+$258.86 (+2.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $297.63 | 43 | $12,798.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $294.44 | 43 | $12,660.92 | $12,714.91 |
$-137.17 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 2:20pm ET | $297.34 | 42 | $12,488.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $293.64 | 42 | $12,332.88 | $12,559.51 |
$-155.40 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 12:05pm ET | $263.13 | 47 | $12,366.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $262.02 | 47 | $12,314.71 | $12,507.34 |
$-52.17 (-0.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.72 | 53 | $12,281.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $266.73 | 53 | $14,136.95 | $14,363.13 |
+$1,855.79 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $321.32 | 44 | $14,138.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $304.50 | 44 | $13,398.00 | $13,623.05 |
$-740.08 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.50 | 52 | $13,598.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.99 | 52 | $15,911.48 | $15,936.53 |
+$2,313.48 (+17.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,936.53
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,936.53
Total Return:
+59.37%