ISRG Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 31 trades in period
+11.16%
Last Year Return
$11,702.86
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$10,527.97
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
22
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.5/35
Total Return
10.4/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
22.5/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 21.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
21,135
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
261 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,527.97
Current Value
$11,702.86
Period P&L
$1,174.89
Max Drawdown
-16.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
17 /
14
Best Trade
+16.49%
Worst Trade
-10.57%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$767,918.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,174.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,174.89
Gross Return
+11.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.16%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 261 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,527.97 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 11:50am ET | $445.48 | 23 | $10,246.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 10:10am ET | $439.26 | 23 | $10,102.98 | $10,384.91 |
$-143.06 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 10:35am ET | $440.88 | 23 | $10,140.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 10:30am ET | $452.10 | 23 | $10,398.30 | $10,643.09 |
+$258.18 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 10:35am ET | $454.37 | 23 | $10,450.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 11:05am ET | $455.73 | 23 | $10,481.79 | $10,674.37 |
+$31.28 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:15am ET | $446.20 | 23 | $10,262.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 10:45am ET | $446.70 | 23 | $10,274.10 | $10,685.98 |
+$11.61 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 10:30am ET | $436.80 | 24 | $10,483.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 11:00am ET | $435.12 | 24 | $10,442.88 | $10,645.66 |
$-40.32 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 11:05am ET | $434.58 | 24 | $10,429.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 11:35am ET | $435.32 | 24 | $10,447.56 | $10,663.30 |
+$17.64 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 10:20am ET | $443.22 | 24 | $10,637.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 10:00am ET | $459.00 | 24 | $11,016.00 | $11,042.02 |
+$378.72 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 11:00am ET | $465.38 | 23 | $10,703.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:00am ET | $542.10 | 23 | $12,468.23 | $12,806.62 |
+$1,764.60 (+16.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 11:50am ET | $543.80 | 23 | $12,507.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 12:20pm ET | $550.04 | 23 | $12,650.92 | $12,950.14 |
+$143.52 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 2:15pm ET | $549.49 | 23 | $12,638.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 12:40pm ET | $543.65 | 23 | $12,504.03 | $12,816.01 |
$-134.13 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 11:55am ET | $536.88 | 23 | $12,348.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 12:25pm ET | $537.24 | 23 | $12,356.41 | $12,824.18 |
+$8.17 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 12:05pm ET | $541.87 | 23 | $12,463.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 12:35pm ET | $542.71 | 23 | $12,482.33 | $12,843.50 |
+$19.32 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $547.45 | 23 | $12,591.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 2:15pm ET | $561.68 | 23 | $12,918.64 | $13,170.90 |
+$327.40 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 3:45pm ET | $576.07 | 22 | $12,673.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:15am ET | $573.40 | 22 | $12,614.80 | $13,112.27 |
$-58.63 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 11:30am ET | $553.02 | 23 | $12,719.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 2:00pm ET | $547.00 | 23 | $12,581.01 | $12,973.82 |
$-138.45 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:30am ET | $557.99 | 23 | $12,833.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 10:00am ET | $571.98 | 23 | $13,155.65 | $13,295.82 |
+$322.00 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:50am ET | $559.56 | 23 | $12,869.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:20pm ET | $568.13 | 23 | $13,066.99 | $13,492.93 |
+$197.11 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:25pm ET | $568.84 | 23 | $13,083.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $562.76 | 23 | $12,943.48 | $13,353.20 |
$-139.73 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 10:15am ET | $569.66 | 23 | $13,102.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:45am ET | $576.42 | 23 | $13,257.55 | $13,508.57 |
+$155.37 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 1:10pm ET | $572.83 | 23 | $13,175.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 1:40pm ET | $581.59 | 23 | $13,376.57 | $13,710.05 |
+$201.48 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 1:45pm ET | $581.32 | 23 | $13,370.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $574.46 | 23 | $13,212.47 | $13,552.27 |
$-157.78 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $566.83 | 23 | $13,037.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $586.12 | 23 | $13,480.65 | $13,995.82 |
+$443.55 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $586.00 | 23 | $13,477.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $599.47 | 23 | $13,787.81 | $14,305.75 |
+$309.93 (+2.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 11:25am ET | $601.97 | 23 | $13,845.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:30pm ET | $595.58 | 23 | $13,698.23 | $14,158.66 |
$-147.09 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:20am ET | $531.26 | 26 | $13,812.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $525.41 | 26 | $13,660.77 | $14,006.67 |
$-151.99 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 11:20am ET | $531.35 | 26 | $13,815.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $525.81 | 26 | $13,671.06 | $13,862.63 |
$-144.04 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $492.66 | 28 | $13,794.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $496.40 | 28 | $13,899.20 | $13,967.35 |
+$104.72 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 11:25am ET | $493.53 | 28 | $13,818.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 2:55pm ET | $488.35 | 28 | $13,673.80 | $13,822.31 |
$-145.04 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $469.99 | 29 | $13,629.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:00pm ET | $445.75 | 29 | $12,926.75 | $13,119.35 |
$-702.96 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
27.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.00 | 32 | $12,800.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $357.72 | 32 | $11,447.04 | $11,766.39 |
$-1,352.96 (-10.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $351.89 | 33 | $11,612.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $349.96 | 33 | $11,548.84 | $11,702.86 |
$-63.53 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,702.86
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,702.86
Total Return:
+17.03%