LLY Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 41 trades in period
+1.50%
Last Year Return
$11,201.30
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$11,035.45
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
19
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.0/35
Total Return
9.3/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality
20.4/100
× Confidence 0.95
= 19.4
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
23,592
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,035.45
Current Value
$11,201.30
Period P&L
$165.85
Max Drawdown
-13.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
19 /
22
Best Trade
+15.27%
Worst Trade
-6.72%
Avg Trade Return
+0.10%
Avg Hold Time
3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$925,287.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$165.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$165.85
Gross Return
+1.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.50%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,035.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 10:15am ET | $736.38 | 14 | $10,309.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 10:45am ET | $728.99 | 14 | $10,205.89 | $10,932.02 |
$-103.43 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:05am ET | $798.52 | 13 | $10,380.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 12:55pm ET | $820.22 | 13 | $10,662.86 | $11,214.12 |
+$282.10 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 10:15am ET | $832.89 | 13 | $10,827.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 10:45am ET | $850.96 | 13 | $11,062.42 | $11,448.98 |
+$234.86 (+2.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 11:15am ET | $855.83 | 13 | $11,125.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 1:05pm ET | $847.14 | 13 | $11,012.83 | $11,336.08 |
$-112.90 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 10:10am ET | $862.27 | 13 | $11,209.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:05am ET | $852.11 | 13 | $11,077.43 | $11,204.06 |
$-132.02 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:30am ET | $822.24 | 13 | $10,689.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 11:00am ET | $826.74 | 13 | $10,747.56 | $11,262.50 |
+$58.44 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 11:15am ET | $809.85 | 13 | $10,528.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2025 11:45am ET | $819.73 | 13 | $10,656.49 | $11,390.94 |
+$128.44 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $830.77 | 13 | $10,800.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 10:00am ET | $815.43 | 13 | $10,600.59 | $11,191.52 |
$-199.42 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 10:55am ET | $845.75 | 13 | $10,994.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 11:25am ET | $850.96 | 13 | $11,062.42 | $11,259.19 |
+$67.67 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 11:40am ET | $852.27 | 13 | $11,079.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $877.35 | 13 | $11,405.55 | $11,585.23 |
+$326.04 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 12:05pm ET | $888.09 | 13 | $11,545.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 10:25am ET | $913.33 | 13 | $11,873.28 | $11,913.34 |
+$328.11 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:30am ET | $911.34 | 13 | $11,847.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 10:40am ET | $898.21 | 13 | $11,676.73 | $11,742.69 |
$-170.65 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:30am ET | $941.04 | 12 | $11,292.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 3:05pm ET | $929.64 | 12 | $11,155.68 | $11,605.89 |
$-136.80 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 10:30am ET | $937.42 | 12 | $11,249.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 12:15pm ET | $925.10 | 12 | $11,101.20 | $11,458.05 |
$-147.84 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 10:40am ET | $985.05 | 11 | $10,835.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $1,012.45 | 11 | $11,136.95 | $11,759.51 |
+$301.46 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:25am ET | $1,029.36 | 11 | $11,322.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 10:05am ET | $1,013.98 | 11 | $11,153.73 | $11,590.28 |
$-169.23 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 11:45am ET | $1,028.36 | 11 | $11,311.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 12:15pm ET | $1,037.95 | 11 | $11,417.45 | $11,695.77 |
+$105.49 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:20pm ET | $1,038.39 | 11 | $11,422.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:50pm ET | $1,052.00 | 11 | $11,572.00 | $11,845.54 |
+$149.77 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 1:00pm ET | $1,050.76 | 11 | $11,558.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 1:30pm ET | $1,043.77 | 11 | $11,481.42 | $11,768.60 |
$-76.94 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 1:50pm ET | $1,065.06 | 11 | $11,715.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $1,053.92 | 11 | $11,593.12 | $11,646.06 |
$-122.54 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:55am ET | $1,097.82 | 10 | $10,978.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 12:25pm ET | $1,105.50 | 10 | $11,055.00 | $11,722.86 |
+$76.80 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 1:40pm ET | $998.86 | 11 | $10,987.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:20am ET | $1,024.24 | 11 | $11,266.65 | $12,002.10 |
+$279.24 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 10:25am ET | $1,025.99 | 11 | $11,285.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 11:50am ET | $1,015.34 | 11 | $11,168.74 | $11,884.95 |
$-117.15 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:10am ET | $1,023.00 | 11 | $11,253.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $1,051.65 | 11 | $11,568.15 | $12,200.10 |
+$315.15 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 3:25pm ET | $1,062.56 | 11 | $11,688.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 11:05am ET | $1,050.17 | 11 | $11,551.87 | $12,063.81 |
$-136.29 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 3:35pm ET | $1,074.23 | 11 | $11,816.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:05am ET | $1,079.02 | 11 | $11,869.22 | $12,116.50 |
+$52.69 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,080.37 | 11 | $11,884.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,048.07 | 11 | $11,528.77 | $11,761.20 |
$-355.30 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,069.29 | 10 | $10,692.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,057.86 | 10 | $10,578.55 | $11,646.85 |
$-114.35 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,074.42 | 10 | $10,744.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,085.32 | 10 | $10,853.20 | $11,755.85 |
+$109.00 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $1,088.51 | 10 | $10,885.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 12:55pm ET | $1,076.87 | 10 | $10,768.70 | $11,639.45 |
$-116.40 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $1,044.32 | 11 | $11,487.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,032.56 | 11 | $11,358.11 | $11,510.04 |
$-129.41 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $1,043.25 | 11 | $11,475.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,071.49 | 11 | $11,786.39 | $11,820.68 |
+$310.64 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $1,071.95 | 11 | $11,791.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $1,087.50 | 11 | $11,962.50 | $11,991.73 |
+$171.05 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:55pm ET | $1,088.73 | 11 | $11,976.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,076.63 | 11 | $11,842.88 | $11,858.57 |
$-133.16 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 1:40pm ET | $1,042.55 | 11 | $11,468.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1,044.62 | 11 | $11,490.82 | $11,881.34 |
+$22.77 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $1,107.35 | 10 | $11,073.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,095.00 | 10 | $10,950.00 | $11,757.79 |
$-123.55 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,039.55 | 11 | $11,435.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $1,028.90 | 11 | $11,317.85 | $11,640.58 |
$-117.21 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $899.30 | 12 | $10,791.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $1,036.58 | 12 | $12,439.02 | $13,288.00 |
+$1,647.42 (+15.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,151.72 | 11 | $12,668.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 10:50am ET | $1,092.02 | 11 | $12,012.22 | $12,631.30 |
$-656.70 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,235.27 | 10 | $12,352.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,152.25 | 10 | $11,522.50 | $11,801.10 |
$-830.20 (-6.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,177.99 | 10 | $11,779.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 11:30am ET | $1,118.01 | 10 | $11,180.10 | $11,201.30 |
$-599.80 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
34.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,201.30
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,201.30
Total Return:
+12.01%