LTCUSD Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 48 trades in period
-24.45%
Last Year Return
$8,003.83
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$10,594.51
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.8 oversold
20d Trend
-38.7%
5d Trend
-38.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.1%
ATR%
12.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 15, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
5.0/100
× Confidence 0.73
= 3.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,161
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,594.51
Current Value
$8,003.83
Period P&L
$-2,590.68
Max Drawdown
-35.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.23
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
14 /
34
Best Trade
+6.01%
Worst Trade
-6.17%
Avg Trade Return
-0.55%
Avg Hold Time
19.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$1,003,013.18
Estimated Fees
$2,507.53
Gross P&L
$-2,590.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-5,098.21
Gross Return
-24.45%
Net Return (after fees)
-48.12%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,594.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:30am ET | $105.33 | 100 | $10,533.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 11:20am ET | $104.26 | 100 | $10,426.00 | $10,487.51 |
$-107.00 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 12:15pm ET | $104.07 | 100 | $10,407.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $106.86 | 100 | $10,686.00 | $10,766.51 |
+$279.00 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:30am ET | $107.24 | 100 | $10,724.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 12:45pm ET | $106.14 | 100 | $10,614.00 | $10,656.51 |
$-110.00 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 11:15am ET | $111.75 | 95 | $10,616.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 1:50pm ET | $110.57 | 95 | $10,504.15 | $10,544.41 |
$-112.10 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 10:50am ET | $119.75 | 88 | $10,538.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 1:35pm ET | $122.99 | 88 | $10,823.12 | $10,829.53 |
+$285.12 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 11:25am ET | $121.20 | 89 | $10,786.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 12:05pm ET | $119.67 | 89 | $10,650.63 | $10,693.36 |
$-136.17 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $117.41 | 91 | $10,684.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 10:30am ET | $117.01 | 91 | $10,647.91 | $10,656.96 |
$-36.40 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 1:35pm ET | $99.36 | 107 | $10,631.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $93.26 | 107 | $9,978.82 | $10,004.26 |
$-652.70 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:10am ET | $93.84 | 106 | $9,947.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 1:10pm ET | $96.19 | 106 | $10,196.14 | $10,253.36 |
+$249.10 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 11:25am ET | $89.87 | 114 | $10,244.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 10:00am ET | $95.27 | 114 | $10,860.78 | $10,869.53 |
+$616.17 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $94.31 | 115 | $10,845.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 12:30pm ET | $96.71 | 115 | $11,121.65 | $11,145.53 |
+$276.00 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 12:50pm ET | $95.08 | 117 | $11,124.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 1:00pm ET | $94.04 | 117 | $11,002.68 | $11,023.85 |
$-121.68 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 11:30am ET | $94.41 | 116 | $10,951.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 12:00pm ET | $95.12 | 116 | $11,033.92 | $11,106.21 |
+$82.36 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 11:05am ET | $99.77 | 111 | $11,074.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 12:05pm ET | $102.36 | 111 | $11,361.96 | $11,393.70 |
+$287.49 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:50am ET | $95.72 | 119 | $11,390.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 12:55pm ET | $94.56 | 119 | $11,252.64 | $11,255.66 |
$-138.04 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:50am ET | $87.72 | 128 | $11,228.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $86.79 | 128 | $11,109.12 | $11,136.62 |
$-119.04 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $90.22 | 123 | $11,097.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 10:30am ET | $92.85 | 123 | $11,420.55 | $11,460.11 |
+$323.49 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:05am ET | $108.11 | 106 | $11,459.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 11:30am ET | $106.94 | 106 | $11,335.64 | $11,336.09 |
$-124.02 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:45am ET | $97.30 | 116 | $11,286.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 11:15am ET | $96.31 | 116 | $11,171.96 | $11,221.25 |
$-114.84 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:15am ET | $96.92 | 115 | $11,145.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 12:20pm ET | $95.74 | 115 | $11,010.10 | $11,085.55 |
$-135.70 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:40am ET | $84.48 | 131 | $11,066.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:55pm ET | $86.75 | 131 | $11,364.25 | $11,383.31 |
+$297.76 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:15am ET | $85.50 | 133 | $11,371.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $84.01 | 133 | $11,173.33 | $11,185.14 |
$-198.17 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 12:25pm ET | $85.44 | 130 | $11,107.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 12:05pm ET | $84.56 | 130 | $10,992.80 | $11,070.74 |
$-114.40 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $81.00 | 136 | $11,016.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 2:05pm ET | $83.12 | 136 | $11,304.32 | $11,359.06 |
+$288.32 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $84.85 | 133 | $11,285.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:45am ET | $83.92 | 133 | $11,161.36 | $11,235.37 |
$-123.69 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $82.69 | 135 | $11,163.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 11:05am ET | $81.33 | 135 | $10,979.28 | $11,051.50 |
$-183.87 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $84.51 | 130 | $10,986.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 11:10am ET | $86.70 | 130 | $11,271.00 | $11,336.07 |
+$284.57 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:40pm ET | $82.17 | 137 | $11,257.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $81.15 | 137 | $11,117.55 | $11,196.33 |
$-139.74 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 10:45am ET | $79.13 | 141 | $11,157.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $78.23 | 141 | $11,030.43 | $11,069.43 |
$-126.90 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 2:20pm ET | $77.22 | 143 | $11,042.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 10:55am ET | $79.27 | 143 | $11,335.61 | $11,362.58 |
+$293.15 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 11:00am ET | $79.16 | 143 | $11,319.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 12:45pm ET | $78.36 | 143 | $11,205.48 | $11,248.18 |
$-114.40 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 11:00am ET | $76.99 | 146 | $11,240.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $75.52 | 146 | $11,025.92 | $11,033.56 |
$-214.62 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:55am ET | $81.45 | 135 | $10,995.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $82.12 | 135 | $11,086.07 | $11,123.87 |
+$90.31 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:50pm ET | $83.07 | 133 | $11,048.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 11:40am ET | $82.19 | 133 | $10,931.27 | $11,006.83 |
$-117.04 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $81.37 | 135 | $10,984.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:05pm ET | $80.45 | 135 | $10,860.75 | $10,883.17 |
$-123.66 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $81.62 | 133 | $10,855.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $76.58 | 133 | $10,185.14 | $10,213.25 |
$-669.92 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $77.30 | 132 | $10,202.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 12:30pm ET | $76.47 | 132 | $10,094.04 | $10,104.35 |
$-108.90 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $77.67 | 130 | $10,097.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $76.82 | 130 | $9,986.60 | $9,993.85 |
$-110.50 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:15pm ET | $73.32 | 136 | $9,971.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $69.25 | 136 | $9,418.00 | $9,440.74 |
$-553.11 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $68.18 | 138 | $9,408.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:30pm ET | $67.19 | 138 | $9,272.22 | $9,304.12 |
$-136.62 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $69.87 | 133 | $9,292.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $69.10 | 133 | $9,190.30 | $9,201.71 |
$-102.41 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:50pm ET | $69.68 | 132 | $9,197.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $66.03 | 132 | $8,716.22 | $8,720.17 |
$-481.54 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:20pm ET | $65.46 | 133 | $8,706.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:10pm ET | $64.73 | 133 | $8,609.09 | $8,623.08 |
$-97.09 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $60.69 | 142 | $8,617.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 1:20pm ET | $60.04 | 142 | $8,525.68 | $8,530.78 |
$-92.30 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $60.61 | 140 | $8,485.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $58.50 | 140 | $8,190.00 | $8,235.38 |
$-295.40 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $54.90 | 150 | $8,235.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $53.93 | 150 | $8,088.83 | $8,089.20 |
$-146.18 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $54.08 | 149 | $8,058.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $53.13 | 149 | $7,916.79 | $7,947.40 |
$-141.80 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $54.21 | 146 | $7,914.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 15, 2026 9:35pm ET | $54.60 | 146 | $7,971.16 | $8,003.83 |
+$56.43 (+0.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,003.83
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,996.17
Total Return:
-19.96%