MA Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 30 trades in period
-11.85%
Last Year Return
$10,012.64
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$11,358.98
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.4/25
Win Rate
3.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality
9.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 9.1
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
20,928
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
258 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,358.98
Current Value
$10,012.64
Period P&L
$-1,346.34
Max Drawdown
-10.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.25
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
16 /
14
Best Trade
+2.61%
Worst Trade
-5.23%
Avg Trade Return
-0.42%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$671,252.27
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,346.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,346.34
Gross Return
-11.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.85%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 258 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,358.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 3:35pm ET | $569.09 | 19 | $10,812.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 10:05am ET | $574.96 | 19 | $10,924.24 | $11,470.51 |
+$111.53 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:10am ET | $574.11 | 19 | $10,908.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 10:40am ET | $574.55 | 19 | $10,916.45 | $11,478.87 |
+$8.36 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 2:10pm ET | $578.15 | 19 | $10,984.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 2:40pm ET | $579.05 | 19 | $11,001.86 | $11,495.97 |
+$17.10 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $565.65 | 20 | $11,312.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:30am ET | $567.03 | 20 | $11,340.66 | $11,523.73 |
+$27.76 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $560.57 | 20 | $11,211.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 10:40am ET | $562.21 | 20 | $11,244.10 | $11,556.43 |
+$32.70 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 1:10pm ET | $563.90 | 20 | $11,278.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 1:40pm ET | $572.26 | 20 | $11,445.20 | $11,723.63 |
+$167.20 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 2:00pm ET | $572.45 | 20 | $11,449.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 2:30pm ET | $573.56 | 20 | $11,471.20 | $11,745.83 |
+$22.20 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 12:25pm ET | $553.15 | 21 | $11,616.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $543.41 | 21 | $11,411.61 | $11,541.29 |
$-204.54 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 11:05am ET | $552.33 | 20 | $11,046.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 11:35am ET | $551.56 | 20 | $11,031.10 | $11,525.79 |
$-15.50 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 12:45pm ET | $555.67 | 20 | $11,113.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 1:15pm ET | $562.75 | 20 | $11,255.00 | $11,667.39 |
+$141.60 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $538.17 | 21 | $11,301.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:40am ET | $543.32 | 21 | $11,409.72 | $11,775.54 |
+$108.15 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 2:50pm ET | $549.96 | 21 | $11,549.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 3:20pm ET | $547.18 | 21 | $11,490.78 | $11,717.26 |
$-58.28 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:20am ET | $550.27 | 21 | $11,555.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 1:45pm ET | $548.51 | 21 | $11,518.71 | $11,680.30 |
$-36.96 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:50am ET | $549.41 | 21 | $11,537.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 11:20am ET | $551.21 | 21 | $11,575.41 | $11,718.21 |
+$37.91 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 12:35pm ET | $552.93 | 21 | $11,611.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $546.94 | 21 | $11,485.64 | $11,592.42 |
$-125.79 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 11:00am ET | $550.24 | 21 | $11,555.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 3:50pm ET | $544.26 | 21 | $11,429.46 | $11,466.84 |
$-125.58 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 11:35am ET | $557.14 | 20 | $11,142.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:05am ET | $571.66 | 20 | $11,433.20 | $11,757.34 |
+$290.50 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 3:50pm ET | $572.51 | 20 | $11,450.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:20am ET | $577.02 | 20 | $11,540.30 | $11,847.44 |
+$90.10 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 11:35am ET | $581.79 | 20 | $11,635.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 3:00pm ET | $579.25 | 20 | $11,585.00 | $11,796.64 |
$-50.80 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $571.74 | 20 | $11,434.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $577.07 | 20 | $11,541.40 | $11,903.24 |
+$106.60 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $577.72 | 20 | $11,554.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $580.30 | 20 | $11,605.95 | $11,954.79 |
+$51.55 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:45am ET | $589.26 | 20 | $11,785.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 2:50pm ET | $583.07 | 20 | $11,661.40 | $11,831.03 |
$-123.76 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $565.99 | 20 | $11,319.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $544.12 | 20 | $10,882.40 | $11,393.63 |
$-437.40 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:25pm ET | $547.71 | 20 | $10,954.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:10pm ET | $541.47 | 20 | $10,829.40 | $11,268.83 |
$-124.80 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $532.37 | 21 | $11,179.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 10:05am ET | $526.64 | 21 | $11,059.34 | $11,148.39 |
$-120.44 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:00pm ET | $541.54 | 20 | $10,830.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 11:10am ET | $535.81 | 20 | $10,716.20 | $11,033.79 |
$-114.60 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:25pm ET | $552.60 | 19 | $10,499.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:55pm ET | $554.27 | 19 | $10,531.13 | $11,065.52 |
+$31.73 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:00pm ET | $551.39 | 20 | $11,027.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $551.57 | 20 | $11,031.40 | $11,069.22 |
+$3.70 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $528.50 | 20 | $10,570.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 1:05pm ET | $500.88 | 20 | $10,017.55 | $10,516.77 |
$-552.45 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $592.43 | 17 | $10,071.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $562.78 | 17 | $9,567.18 | $10,012.64 |
$-504.13 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,012.64
Net Profit/Loss:
+$12.64
Total Return:
+0.13%