MARA Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 55 trades in period
+43.37%
Last Year Return
$15,269.68
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$10,650.36
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
14.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
28.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 27.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,834
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,650.36
Current Value
$15,269.68
Period P&L
$4,619.31
Max Drawdown
-25.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
55
Winners / Losers
16 /
39
Best Trade
+17.68%
Worst Trade
-6.90%
Avg Trade Return
+0.81%
Avg Hold Time
22h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,078,742.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,619.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,619.31
Gross Return
+43.37%
Net Return (after fees)
+43.37%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 55 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,650.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 1:25pm ET | $16.33 | 652 | $10,643.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 3:00pm ET | $16.15 | 652 | $10,529.80 | $10,536.26 |
$-114.10 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:05am ET | $16.95 | 621 | $10,522.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 10:35am ET | $17.38 | 621 | $10,789.88 | $10,803.29 |
+$267.03 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:05am ET | $19.26 | 560 | $10,785.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 10:20am ET | $19.02 | 560 | $10,648.40 | $10,666.09 |
$-137.20 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 12:10pm ET | $19.55 | 545 | $10,652.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 12:55pm ET | $19.34 | 545 | $10,540.30 | $10,554.36 |
$-111.73 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 11:30am ET | $20.08 | 525 | $10,542.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 12:00pm ET | $19.86 | 525 | $10,425.56 | $10,437.92 |
$-116.44 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $20.69 | 504 | $10,427.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 10:50am ET | $20.34 | 504 | $10,251.36 | $10,261.52 |
$-176.40 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 10:40am ET | $19.74 | 519 | $10,242.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 10:55am ET | $19.51 | 519 | $10,123.10 | $10,142.15 |
$-119.37 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:10am ET | $20.43 | 496 | $10,134.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:40am ET | $21.05 | 496 | $10,438.37 | $10,446.05 |
+$303.90 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $23.09 | 452 | $10,436.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 11:30am ET | $22.70 | 452 | $10,260.40 | $10,269.77 |
$-176.28 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 10:45am ET | $21.34 | 481 | $10,264.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 11:35am ET | $21.95 | 481 | $10,557.95 | $10,563.18 |
+$293.41 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 12:20pm ET | $20.99 | 503 | $10,557.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 12:45pm ET | $20.76 | 503 | $10,439.77 | $10,444.97 |
$-118.21 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 11:50am ET | $19.63 | 532 | $10,443.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2025 12:15pm ET | $19.42 | 532 | $10,331.49 | $10,333.30 |
$-111.67 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 10:20am ET | $20.10 | 514 | $10,329.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 10:50am ET | $19.80 | 514 | $10,177.20 | $10,180.90 |
$-152.40 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:20am ET | $17.82 | 571 | $10,175.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 10:45am ET | $17.61 | 571 | $10,052.46 | $10,058.13 |
$-122.77 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:35pm ET | $15.62 | 643 | $10,046.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $16.09 | 643 | $10,345.87 | $10,357.45 |
+$299.32 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:35am ET | $12.65 | 819 | $10,356.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 12:20pm ET | $12.51 | 819 | $10,241.60 | $10,242.54 |
$-114.91 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:40pm ET | $11.90 | 860 | $10,234.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $11.66 | 860 | $10,027.60 | $10,036.14 |
$-206.40 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:45pm ET | $10.76 | 932 | $10,028.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 2:35pm ET | $11.09 | 932 | $10,331.97 | $10,339.79 |
+$303.65 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 12:30pm ET | $11.07 | 934 | $10,334.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 12:55pm ET | $10.86 | 934 | $10,138.57 | $10,143.65 |
$-196.14 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 1:10pm ET | $11.39 | 890 | $10,132.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 3:45pm ET | $11.26 | 890 | $10,021.40 | $10,032.31 |
$-111.34 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $12.17 | 824 | $10,028.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:30am ET | $12.00 | 824 | $9,888.08 | $9,892.31 |
$-140.00 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 1:10pm ET | $12.31 | 803 | $9,886.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 1:20pm ET | $12.17 | 803 | $9,773.39 | $9,779.25 |
$-113.06 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $12.48 | 783 | $9,771.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 2:10pm ET | $12.26 | 783 | $9,595.67 | $9,603.15 |
$-176.10 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:25am ET | $12.06 | 796 | $9,595.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 10:55am ET | $12.39 | 796 | $9,862.44 | $9,869.81 |
+$266.66 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET | $12.11 | 815 | $9,869.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 3:50pm ET | $11.99 | 815 | $9,767.78 | $9,767.93 |
$-101.88 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 3:55pm ET | $11.86 | 823 | $9,760.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:50am ET | $11.60 | 823 | $9,542.69 | $9,549.84 |
$-218.09 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:05am ET | $10.16 | 940 | $9,545.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 11:45am ET | $10.05 | 940 | $9,442.30 | $9,446.44 |
$-103.40 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 10:05am ET | $10.62 | 889 | $9,441.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 10:35am ET | $10.46 | 889 | $9,294.50 | $9,299.76 |
$-146.68 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 12:15pm ET | $9.89 | 940 | $9,291.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $9.53 | 940 | $8,957.26 | $8,965.12 |
$-334.64 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $9.50 | 943 | $8,958.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $9.75 | 943 | $9,194.25 | $9,200.87 |
+$235.75 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $10.72 | 858 | $9,193.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:35pm ET | $10.58 | 858 | $9,077.64 | $9,085.04 |
$-115.83 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $10.43 | 871 | $9,083.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:35am ET | $10.30 | 871 | $8,966.95 | $8,968.50 |
$-116.54 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $10.53 | 851 | $8,961.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:00pm ET | $10.82 | 851 | $9,203.57 | $9,211.04 |
+$242.54 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:15pm ET | $11.19 | 823 | $9,205.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $11.04 | 823 | $9,087.90 | $9,093.68 |
$-117.36 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $11.47 | 792 | $9,084.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.22 | 792 | $8,882.28 | $8,891.72 |
$-201.96 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $10.88 | 817 | $8,888.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $10.77 | 817 | $8,795.01 | $8,797.76 |
$-93.96 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $10.39 | 847 | $8,796.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $10.68 | 847 | $9,045.96 | $9,047.63 |
+$249.87 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $10.18 | 889 | $9,045.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $10.06 | 889 | $8,943.34 | $8,945.39 |
$-102.24 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.35 | 956 | $8,943.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $9.25 | 956 | $8,843.00 | $8,845.01 |
$-100.38 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:30am ET | $9.36 | 944 | $8,835.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET | $9.24 | 944 | $8,727.28 | $8,736.54 |
$-108.47 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $7.61 | 1,148 | $8,730.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $7.84 | 1,148 | $9,006.06 | $9,012.06 |
+$275.52 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.30 | 1,086 | $9,008.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $8.19 | 1,086 | $8,888.91 | $8,892.60 |
$-119.46 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $8.14 | 1,093 | $8,891.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $8.02 | 1,093 | $8,771.32 | $8,772.37 |
$-120.23 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $7.86 | 1,116 | $8,766.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $7.71 | 1,116 | $8,605.92 | $8,612.11 |
$-160.26 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.28 | 928 | $8,611.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.64 | 928 | $8,017.92 | $8,018.19 |
$-593.92 (-6.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.57 | 935 | $8,017.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.00 | 935 | $7,480.00 | $7,480.57 |
$-537.62 (-6.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.40 | 795 | $7,473.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $10.82 | 795 | $8,605.87 | $8,613.45 |
+$1,132.88 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.85 | 726 | $8,603.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $11.18 | 726 | $8,116.61 | $8,126.96 |
$-486.49 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.11 | 731 | $8,125.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.94 | 731 | $9,459.36 | $9,461.25 |
+$1,334.29 (+16.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.86 | 735 | $9,452.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.94 | 735 | $10,980.90 | $10,989.31 |
+$1,528.06 (+16.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.78 | 859 | $10,978.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 12:15pm ET | $12.10 | 859 | $10,398.19 | $10,409.48 |
$-579.83 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.33 | 918 | $10,400.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $13.04 | 918 | $11,974.39 | $11,982.94 |
+$1,573.45 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.05 | 1,192 | $11,979.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.46 | 1,192 | $11,276.32 | $11,279.66 |
$-703.28 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.24 | 1,101 | $11,274.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.05 | 1,101 | $13,267.05 | $13,272.47 |
+$1,992.81 (+17.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.47 | 1,157 | $13,270.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $13.20 | 1,157 | $15,268.00 | $15,269.68 |
+$1,997.21 (+15.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,269.68
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,269.68
Total Return:
+52.70%