Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:35:52

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.2/35
Total Return
10.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 16.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 16.6

30-Day Momentum

9
+3.5%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.6 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,310
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$7,499.57
Current Value
$11,544.94
Period P&L
$4,045.37
Max Drawdown
-46.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
59
Winners / Losers
26 / 33
Best Trade
+16.39%
Worst Trade
-6.13%
Avg Trade Return
+0.85%
Avg Hold Time
22.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,013,022.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,045.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,045.37
Gross Return
+53.94%
Net Return (after fees)
+53.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 59 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,499.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 29, 2025 12:55pm ET $25.12 298 $7,485.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 30, 2025 10:20am ET $24.86 298 $7,408.28 $7,422.15 $-77.42
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 30, 2025 1:40pm ET $25.28 293 $7,407.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 30, 2025 3:20pm ET $25.93 293 $7,597.49 $7,612.60 +$190.45
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2025 10:15am ET $27.53 276 $7,596.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2025 11:30am ET $28.26 276 $7,798.38 $7,814.05 +$201.45
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 2, 2025 3:30pm ET $28.23 276 $7,790.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 3, 2025 11:30am ET $27.94 276 $7,711.44 $7,735.39 $-78.66
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Oct 8, 2025 10:50am ET $28.64 270 $7,732.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 8, 2025 11:55am ET $29.38 270 $7,932.11 $7,934.70 +$199.31
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Oct 15, 2025 10:00am ET $27.61 287 $7,922.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 11:00am ET $27.32 287 $7,840.84 $7,852.90 $-81.80
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 20, 2025 10:10am ET $27.36 287 $7,852.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 20, 2025 11:05am ET $28.05 287 $8,048.92 $8,049.50 +$196.60
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 21, 2025 11:00am ET $27.48 292 $8,024.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 21, 2025 12:05pm ET $27.17 292 $7,934.46 $7,959.80 $-89.70
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 24, 2025 11:10am ET $26.73 297 $7,938.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 24, 2025 12:25pm ET $26.39 297 $7,837.83 $7,858.82 $-100.98
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 11:10am ET $25.28 310 $7,837.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 11:15am ET $26.72 310 $8,283.23 $8,304.41 +$445.59
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 10:05am ET $25.09 331 $8,303.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 10:35am ET $24.76 331 $8,195.56 $8,196.83 $-107.58
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 2:40pm ET $24.14 339 $8,181.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 10:35am ET $23.84 339 $8,081.76 $8,096.82 $-100.01
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 11:15am ET $25.31 319 $8,073.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 1:55pm ET $25.97 319 $8,284.43 $8,307.36 +$210.54
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 3:35pm ET $26.98 307 $8,281.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 10:00am ET $26.02 307 $7,988.14 $8,014.17 $-293.19
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 11:20am ET $24.68 324 $7,996.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 1:15pm ET $24.42 324 $7,912.08 $7,929.93 $-84.24
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 10:25am ET $24.84 319 $7,923.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 11:15am ET $24.54 319 $7,828.26 $7,834.23 $-95.70
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 12:45pm ET $24.69 317 $7,826.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 11:15am ET $24.42 317 $7,739.56 $7,747.05 $-87.18
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:35am ET $23.21 333 $7,730.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 1:45pm ET $23.84 333 $7,938.72 $7,955.24 +$208.19
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 12:10pm ET $24.02 331 $7,950.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 12:40pm ET $24.50 331 $8,109.50 $8,114.12 +$158.88
(+2.0%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 3:30pm ET $24.70 328 $8,099.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 10:00am ET $24.96 328 $8,185.24 $8,199.40 +$85.28
(+1.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 11:05am ET $25.28 324 $8,190.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 12:55pm ET $25.98 324 $8,417.52 $8,426.20 +$226.80
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 10:35am ET $24.36 345 $8,404.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 11:05am ET $24.10 345 $8,314.50 $8,336.50 $-89.70
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $25.17 331 $8,331.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 10:00am ET $24.79 331 $8,205.49 $8,210.72 $-125.78
(-1.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 11:25am ET $25.64 320 $8,204.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 10:10am ET $26.36 320 $8,435.20 $8,441.12 +$230.40
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 10:55am ET $26.58 317 $8,425.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 1:40pm ET $27.34 317 $8,665.20 $8,680.46 +$239.34
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 3:45pm ET $27.95 310 $8,664.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 10:05am ET $27.67 310 $8,576.15 $8,592.11 $-88.35
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 2:20pm ET $28.49 301 $8,575.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 2:45pm ET $28.09 301 $8,455.09 $8,471.71 $-120.40
(-1.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 10:40am ET $28.65 295 $8,451.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 10:25am ET $29.42 295 $8,678.90 $8,698.86 +$227.15
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
29 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 10:00am ET $30.39 286 $8,690.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:10am ET $29.99 286 $8,577.14 $8,585.89 $-112.97
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
30 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 12:15pm ET $29.41 291 $8,558.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 1:55pm ET $30.16 291 $8,776.56 $8,804.14 +$218.25
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
31 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 11:20am ET $31.77 277 $8,801.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 2:50pm ET $31.44 277 $8,708.88 $8,712.01 $-92.13
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
32 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 10:00am ET $32.24 270 $8,704.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 10:55am ET $33.09 270 $8,932.95 $8,940.16 +$228.15
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
33 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 11:10am ET $35.12 254 $8,920.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET $33.78 254 $8,580.12 $8,599.80 $-340.36
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
34 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET $31.20 275 $8,580.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:40am ET $30.69 275 $8,439.75 $8,459.55 $-140.25
(-1.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
35 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:05am ET $34.89 242 $8,443.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 11:05am ET $35.83 242 $8,671.20 $8,687.34 +$227.79
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
36 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:05am ET $35.90 241 $8,651.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:55pm ET $36.89 241 $8,891.60 $8,927.04 +$239.70
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
37 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 11:00am ET $34.59 258 $8,922.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $34.23 258 $8,830.05 $8,834.16 $-92.88
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
38 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:50am ET $37.09 238 $8,826.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 11:50am ET $38.10 238 $9,067.80 $9,075.73 +$241.57
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
39 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:10am ET $41.65 217 $9,036.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET $41.18 217 $8,936.06 $8,974.82 $-100.91
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
40 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET $42.05 213 $8,956.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:15am ET $41.56 213 $8,852.28 $8,870.56 $-104.26
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
41 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET $46.21 191 $8,825.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:15am ET $47.51 191 $9,074.41 $9,119.82 +$249.26
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
42 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET $53.83 169 $9,097.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 11:55am ET $53.24 169 $8,997.56 $9,020.11 $-99.71
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
43 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET $47.50 189 $8,977.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $46.90 189 $8,864.10 $8,906.71 $-113.40
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
44 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 11:20am ET $43.56 204 $8,885.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 1:35pm ET $44.77 204 $9,133.08 $9,154.57 +$247.86
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
45 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 3:00pm ET $43.36 211 $9,149.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 3:25pm ET $42.87 211 $9,044.52 $9,049.60 $-104.97
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
46 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET $41.69 217 $9,046.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:40am ET $41.17 217 $8,933.89 $8,936.76 $-112.84
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
47 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET $43.81 204 $8,936.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:55am ET $45.06 204 $9,192.22 $9,192.76 +$256.00
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
48 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 11:30am ET $38.48 238 $9,158.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 12:25pm ET $39.53 238 $9,409.33 $9,443.85 +$251.09
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
49 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $53.07 177 $9,393.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $50.17 177 $8,880.09 $8,930.87 $-512.98
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
50 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $51.99 171 $8,890.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET $49.35 171 $8,438.85 $8,479.43 $-451.44
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19d held
51 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $51.69 164 $8,477.98 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:25am ET $49.10 164 $8,052.40 $8,053.85 $-425.58
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
52 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $58.45 137 $8,007.65 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 11:35am ET $54.87 137 $7,516.64 $7,562.84 $-491.01
(-6.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held
53 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $52.09 145 $7,553.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 1:15pm ET $60.29 145 $8,742.05 $8,751.84 +$1,189.00
(+15.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
54 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $71.51 122 $8,724.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET $82.68 122 $10,086.96 $10,113.97 +$1,362.13
(+15.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held
55 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $57.62 175 $10,083.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 12:00pm ET $54.59 175 $9,553.25 $9,583.72 $-530.25
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
56 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET $118.10 81 $9,566.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET $137.45 81 $11,133.45 $11,151.12 +$1,567.40
(+16.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
25m held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $147.42 75 $11,056.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET $139.65 75 $10,473.75 $10,568.71 $-582.41
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
58 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $153.62 68 $10,446.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:40am ET $145.58 68 $9,899.44 $10,021.99 $-546.72
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
59 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $152.56 65 $9,916.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:10pm ET $175.99 65 $11,439.35 $11,544.94 +$1,522.95
(+15.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,544.94
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,544.94
Total Return: +15.45%
Back to Surge