Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:38

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

69
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
20.4/25
Win Rate
2.4/15
Profit Factor
4.7/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 69.4/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 69.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,628
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
261 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$19,534.14
Current Value
$38,597.82
Period P&L
$19,063.67
Max Drawdown
-21.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
61
Winners / Losers
27 / 34
Best Trade
+18.92%
Worst Trade
-9.77%
Avg Trade Return
+1.33%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$3,105,102.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$19,063.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$19,063.67
Gross Return
+97.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+97.59%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 261 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 61 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $19,534.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 10:20am ET $158.35 123 $19,477.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2025 12:10pm ET $156.45 123 $19,242.74 $19,299.82 $-234.32
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 29, 2025 10:10am ET $165.69 116 $19,220.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 29, 2025 11:15am ET $164.03 116 $19,027.48 $19,107.03 $-192.79
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 30, 2025 10:10am ET $168.70 113 $19,063.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 30, 2025 10:45am ET $166.97 113 $18,867.78 $18,911.71 $-195.32
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 3, 2025 11:15am ET $191.11 98 $18,728.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 3, 2025 1:15pm ET $188.70 98 $18,492.60 $18,675.53 $-236.18
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Oct 8, 2025 10:35am ET $194.70 95 $18,496.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 9, 2025 10:00am ET $190.66 95 $18,112.70 $18,292.20 $-383.33
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Oct 9, 2025 11:35am ET $191.84 95 $18,224.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 10:00am ET $184.24 95 $17,502.80 $17,570.20 $-722.00
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 13, 2025 3:10pm ET $193.26 90 $17,393.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 14, 2025 10:00am ET $191.31 90 $17,217.70 $17,394.50 $-175.70
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 15, 2025 11:25am ET $192.03 90 $17,282.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 16, 2025 10:00am ET $202.55 90 $18,229.50 $18,341.30 +$946.80
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 17, 2025 10:10am ET $200.46 91 $18,241.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 20, 2025 10:00am ET $206.81 91 $18,819.71 $18,919.60 +$578.30
(+3.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 20, 2025 2:55pm ET $208.40 90 $18,756.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 21, 2025 10:00am ET $203.48 90 $18,313.20 $18,476.80 $-442.80
(-2.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 10:15am ET $194.87 94 $18,317.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 23, 2025 10:00am ET $205.05 94 $19,274.70 $19,434.19 +$957.39
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Oct 23, 2025 11:20am ET $206.17 94 $19,380.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET $217.18 94 $20,414.92 $20,468.73 +$1,034.54
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Oct 24, 2025 10:30am ET $218.29 93 $20,300.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 27, 2025 11:20am ET $219.05 93 $20,371.65 $20,539.41 +$70.68
(+0.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Oct 27, 2025 11:30am ET $219.54 93 $20,417.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 28, 2025 12:00pm ET $221.25 93 $20,576.34 $20,698.53 +$159.12
(+0.8%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Oct 28, 2025 3:20pm ET $224.25 92 $20,631.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 10:55am ET $230.05 92 $21,164.60 $21,232.13 +$533.60
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 1:00pm ET $227.77 93 $21,182.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2025 10:00am ET $222.24 93 $20,667.86 $20,717.15 $-514.98
(-2.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2025 10:25am ET $223.06 92 $20,521.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 3, 2025 10:00am ET $235.39 92 $21,655.88 $21,851.37 +$1,134.22
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 11:15am ET $243.98 89 $21,714.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 10:00am ET $235.93 89 $20,997.33 $21,134.48 $-716.89
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 10:40am ET $236.47 89 $21,045.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET $253.60 89 $22,570.40 $22,659.05 +$1,524.57
(+7.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 11:05am ET $245.06 92 $22,545.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 10:00am ET $233.81 92 $21,510.76 $21,624.22 $-1,034.83
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 10:10am ET $235.68 91 $21,446.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 10:00am ET $250.79 91 $22,821.89 $22,999.23 +$1,375.01
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 11:20am ET $229.50 100 $22,950.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 12:00pm ET $235.25 100 $23,525.00 $23,574.23 +$575.00
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 10:50am ET $225.18 104 $23,419.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 11:30am ET $222.73 104 $23,163.92 $23,319.10 $-255.13
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 10:05am ET $233.22 99 $23,088.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 10:55am ET $230.24 99 $22,793.76 $23,024.08 $-295.02
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 10:50am ET $241.13 95 $22,906.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 10:35am ET $238.67 95 $22,673.65 $22,790.85 $-233.23
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 10:25am ET $238.77 95 $22,683.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 11:25am ET $236.26 95 $22,444.70 $22,552.39 $-238.46
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 10:50am ET $245.76 91 $22,364.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET $252.03 91 $22,934.28 $23,122.51 +$570.12
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 10:15am ET $263.47 87 $22,921.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 12:40pm ET $260.80 87 $22,689.60 $22,890.22 $-232.29
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
29 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 11:15am ET $260.00 88 $22,880.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 12:30pm ET $257.12 88 $22,626.56 $22,636.78 $-253.44
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
30 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 10:05am ET $288.70 78 $22,518.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 11:25am ET $285.75 78 $22,288.40 $22,406.63 $-230.15
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
31 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 12:30pm ET $288.58 77 $22,220.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2025 11:00am ET $295.82 77 $22,778.14 $22,964.11 +$557.48
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
32 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:15am ET $309.77 74 $22,922.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET $306.49 74 $22,680.26 $22,721.76 $-242.35
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
33 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 1:35pm ET $335.67 67 $22,489.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:20am ET $344.44 67 $23,077.15 $23,309.33 +$587.57
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
34 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:10am ET $339.46 68 $23,083.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET $344.55 68 $23,429.40 $23,655.45 +$346.12
(+1.5%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
35 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET $382.36 61 $23,324.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET $392.15 61 $23,921.15 $24,252.36 +$596.91
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
36 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:05am ET $406.78 59 $24,000.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 11:25am ET $402.61 59 $23,753.70 $24,006.04 $-246.32
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
37 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 1:15pm ET $414.10 57 $23,603.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:00am ET $427.65 57 $24,376.05 $24,778.39 +$772.35
(+3.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
38 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 3:05pm ET $437.85 56 $24,519.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET $433.22 56 $24,260.04 $24,518.83 $-259.56
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
39 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET $430.15 56 $24,088.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 12:40pm ET $441.12 56 $24,702.72 $25,132.87 +$614.04
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
40 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:15pm ET $395.69 63 $24,928.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $383.05 63 $24,132.30 $24,336.71 $-796.16
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
41 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $391.42 62 $24,268.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:30pm ET $387.37 62 $24,016.94 $24,085.30 $-251.41
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
42 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET $381.20 63 $24,015.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET $376.54 63 $23,722.02 $23,791.41 $-293.89
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
43 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 3:10pm ET $411.76 57 $23,470.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:00am ET $429.02 57 $24,454.42 $24,775.51 +$984.10
(+4.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
44 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:30am ET $409.01 60 $24,540.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 12:45pm ET $419.89 60 $25,193.39 $25,428.26 +$652.75
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
45 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $446.54 56 $25,006.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $424.00 56 $23,744.00 $24,166.02 $-1,262.24
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
46 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $348.28 69 $24,031.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $414.18 69 $28,578.76 $28,713.46 +$4,547.44
(+18.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
47 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $436.00 65 $28,340.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET $502.30 65 $32,649.82 $33,023.28 +$4,309.82
(+15.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
10d held
48 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $527.40 62 $32,698.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $609.37 62 $37,780.94 $38,105.42 +$5,082.14
(+15.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
49 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $679.00 56 $38,024.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $791.74 56 $44,337.72 $44,419.14 +$6,313.72
(+16.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
50 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 9:30am ET $811.00 54 $43,794.11 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $731.76 54 $39,515.04 $40,140.07 $-4,279.07
(-9.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
51 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $822.46 48 $39,478.08 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $955.96 48 $45,886.08 $46,548.07 +$6,408.00
(+16.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
52 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $1,009.50 46 $46,437.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $953.80 46 $43,874.80 $43,985.87 $-2,562.20
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
53 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $938.26 46 $43,159.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $889.70 46 $40,926.20 $41,752.11 $-2,233.76
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
54 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,055.02 39 $41,145.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $992.80 39 $38,719.20 $39,325.53 $-2,426.58
(-5.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held
55 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $1,003.49 39 $39,136.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $917.57 39 $35,785.23 $35,974.46 $-3,351.07
(-8.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
56 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $1,012.41 35 $35,434.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $961.78 35 $33,662.30 $34,202.41 $-1,772.05
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
57 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $977.69 34 $33,241.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:20am ET $921.45 34 $31,329.13 $32,290.11 $-1,912.30
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
58 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $931.08 34 $31,656.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:10am ET $880.38 34 $29,932.84 $30,566.40 $-1,723.72
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
59 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $917.58 33 $30,279.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $871.53 33 $28,760.65 $29,047.08 $-1,519.32
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
60 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $861.74 33 $28,437.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $1,000.00 33 $33,000.00 $33,609.66 +$4,562.58
(+16.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
61 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $946.35 35 $33,122.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 2:50pm ET $1,088.87 35 $38,110.41 $38,597.82 +$4,988.16
(+15.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
28.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $38,597.82
Net Profit/Loss: +$28,597.82
Total Return: +285.98%
Back to Surge