NFLX Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 30 trades in period
-14.72%
Last Year Return
$8,639.15
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,130.02
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
6
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality
5.7/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 5.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
28,160
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,130.02
Current Value
$8,639.15
Period P&L
$-1,490.87
Max Drawdown
-20.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
15 /
15
Best Trade
+4.77%
Worst Trade
-12.28%
Avg Trade Return
-0.48%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$601,057.32
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,490.87
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,490.87
Gross Return
-14.72%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.72%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,130.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:10am ET | $121.00 | 83 | $10,042.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 10:40am ET | $120.63 | 83 | $10,012.29 | $10,099.56 |
$-30.46 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:20am ET | $122.26 | 82 | $10,024.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 12:15pm ET | $120.97 | 82 | $9,919.29 | $9,993.94 |
$-105.62 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2025 11:05am ET | $119.32 | 83 | $9,903.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 11:35am ET | $120.96 | 83 | $10,039.60 | $10,130.23 |
+$136.29 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 3:45pm ET | $121.50 | 83 | $10,084.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 10:15am ET | $124.40 | 83 | $10,325.08 | $10,370.81 |
+$240.58 (+2.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 10:05am ET | $122.93 | 84 | $10,326.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $121.30 | 84 | $10,189.20 | $10,233.85 |
$-136.96 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:40am ET | $121.97 | 83 | $10,123.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 11:10am ET | $121.42 | 83 | $10,077.45 | $10,187.93 |
$-45.92 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $119.27 | 85 | $10,137.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 10:00am ET | $122.46 | 85 | $10,409.19 | $10,459.59 |
+$271.66 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 10:50am ET | $122.78 | 85 | $10,436.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 11:20am ET | $123.95 | 85 | $10,535.58 | $10,558.95 |
+$99.36 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:10am ET | $112.89 | 93 | $10,498.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 2:35pm ET | $111.76 | 93 | $10,393.31 | $10,453.91 |
$-105.04 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:20am ET | $108.94 | 95 | $10,349.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 11:50am ET | $110.22 | 95 | $10,470.57 | $10,574.89 |
+$120.98 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 11:35am ET | $114.24 | 92 | $10,510.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 12:05pm ET | $115.29 | 92 | $10,606.50 | $10,671.31 |
+$96.42 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:10am ET | $112.70 | 94 | $10,593.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 11:00am ET | $111.42 | 94 | $10,473.48 | $10,550.99 |
$-120.32 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 3:50pm ET | $106.18 | 99 | $10,511.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $104.42 | 99 | $10,337.58 | $10,376.75 |
$-174.24 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 11:05am ET | $107.84 | 96 | $10,352.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 2:30pm ET | $108.57 | 96 | $10,422.72 | $10,446.83 |
+$70.08 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 2:35pm ET | $108.71 | 96 | $10,436.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 3:05pm ET | $109.50 | 96 | $10,512.00 | $10,522.68 |
+$75.85 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 3:30pm ET | $109.70 | 95 | $10,421.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $103.13 | 95 | $9,797.82 | $9,899.47 |
$-623.21 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:25am ET | $104.67 | 94 | $9,838.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:40am ET | $102.93 | 94 | $9,674.96 | $9,735.45 |
$-164.02 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 10:15am ET | $94.23 | 103 | $9,705.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:45am ET | $95.61 | 103 | $9,847.84 | $9,877.60 |
+$142.15 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 11:50am ET | $94.52 | 104 | $9,830.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $97.01 | 104 | $10,089.04 | $10,136.58 |
+$258.98 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 11:00am ET | $93.59 | 108 | $10,107.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 2:25pm ET | $94.26 | 108 | $10,179.54 | $10,208.40 |
+$71.82 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 2:30pm ET | $94.28 | 108 | $10,182.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 3:00pm ET | $94.27 | 108 | $10,180.62 | $10,206.78 |
$-1.62 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:55pm ET | $91.13 | 112 | $10,206.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $88.61 | 112 | $9,923.76 | $9,923.97 |
$-282.81 (-2.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 3:35pm ET | $85.14 | 116 | $9,875.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $84.25 | 116 | $9,772.42 | $9,820.73 |
$-103.24 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $85.53 | 114 | $9,750.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:00am ET | $86.11 | 114 | $9,816.54 | $9,886.61 |
+$65.88 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $80.68 | 122 | $9,842.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $81.56 | 122 | $9,949.71 | $9,993.97 |
+$107.36 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $84.61 | 118 | $9,983.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $83.66 | 118 | $9,871.88 | $9,882.46 |
$-111.51 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 12:05pm ET | $76.72 | 128 | $9,820.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $76.85 | 128 | $9,836.16 | $9,898.46 |
+$16.00 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $101.25 | 97 | $9,820.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $96.05 | 97 | $9,317.04 | $9,394.74 |
$-503.72 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.96 | 123 | $9,342.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $66.63 | 123 | $8,194.88 | $8,247.15 |
$-1,147.59 (-12.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.35 | 112 | $8,215.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.85 | 112 | $8,607.20 | $8,639.15 |
+$392.00 (+4.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,639.15
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,360.85
Total Return:
-13.61%