NIO Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 43 trades in period
-23.96%
Last Year Return
$8,601.20
Current Value
26%
Win Rate
$11,311.48
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
4.5/100
× Confidence 0.87
= 3.9
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,381
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,311.48
Current Value
$8,601.20
Period P&L
$-2,710.28
Max Drawdown
-31.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
11 /
32
Best Trade
+16.98%
Worst Trade
-6.02%
Avg Trade Return
-0.55%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$946,492.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,710.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,710.28
Gross Return
-23.96%
Net Return (after fees)
-23.96%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,311.48 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 10:25am ET | $7.21 | 1,568 | $11,308.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 12:15pm ET | $7.14 | 1,568 | $11,187.68 | $11,190.74 |
$-120.74 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $7.40 | 1,513 | $11,189.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 10:10am ET | $7.66 | 1,513 | $11,582.02 | $11,583.36 |
+$392.62 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 3:10pm ET | $7.84 | 1,477 | $11,579.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $7.56 | 1,477 | $11,165.09 | $11,168.77 |
$-414.59 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 11:20am ET | $7.20 | 1,552 | $11,166.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 11:45am ET | $7.12 | 1,552 | $11,050.40 | $11,052.53 |
$-116.24 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 10:00am ET | $6.72 | 1,645 | $11,046.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $6.63 | 1,645 | $10,898.13 | $10,904.48 |
$-148.05 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 12:00pm ET | $6.72 | 1,623 | $10,900.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 10:00am ET | $6.91 | 1,623 | $11,218.50 | $11,222.10 |
+$317.62 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 10:35am ET | $6.95 | 1,614 | $11,217.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 10:00am ET | $6.83 | 1,614 | $11,023.30 | $11,028.10 |
$-194.00 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 11:10am ET | $7.01 | 1,574 | $11,025.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 2:50pm ET | $6.93 | 1,574 | $10,907.82 | $10,910.05 |
$-118.05 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 2:15pm ET | $7.08 | 1,542 | $10,909.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $7.26 | 1,542 | $11,187.21 | $11,187.61 |
+$277.56 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 10:15am ET | $7.31 | 1,529 | $11,182.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 10:30am ET | $7.22 | 1,529 | $11,039.38 | $11,044.80 |
$-142.81 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:55am ET | $7.08 | 1,560 | $11,041.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 3:55pm ET | $7.26 | 1,560 | $11,317.80 | $11,321.39 |
+$276.59 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:25am ET | $7.31 | 1,548 | $11,320.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 2:35pm ET | $7.22 | 1,548 | $11,168.82 | $11,169.53 |
$-151.86 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:05am ET | $7.04 | 1,587 | $11,164.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:35am ET | $6.96 | 1,587 | $11,045.36 | $11,050.35 |
$-119.18 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 10:30am ET | $6.15 | 1,796 | $11,044.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $6.08 | 1,796 | $10,910.70 | $10,916.73 |
$-133.62 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 3:35pm ET | $6.03 | 1,811 | $10,911.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $5.92 | 1,811 | $10,717.14 | $10,722.59 |
$-194.14 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET | $5.61 | 1,912 | $10,719.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $5.80 | 1,912 | $11,089.60 | $11,092.37 |
+$369.78 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 1:35pm ET | $5.85 | 1,897 | $11,087.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 3:45pm ET | $5.79 | 1,897 | $10,974.15 | $10,978.55 |
$-113.82 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 2:40pm ET | $5.01 | 2,193 | $10,975.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 3:10pm ET | $5.07 | 2,193 | $11,107.55 | $11,110.13 |
+$131.58 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $5.23 | 2,125 | $11,106.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 10:05am ET | $5.16 | 2,125 | $10,954.38 | $10,957.77 |
$-152.36 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 11:45am ET | $5.08 | 2,157 | $10,957.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 12:45pm ET | $5.03 | 2,157 | $10,838.93 | $10,839.14 |
$-118.63 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 11:50am ET | $5.05 | 2,148 | $10,836.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $4.96 | 2,148 | $10,643.34 | $10,645.82 |
$-193.32 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 10:20am ET | $5.03 | 2,118 | $10,642.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 2:55pm ET | $5.18 | 2,118 | $10,978.65 | $10,981.52 |
+$335.70 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:45am ET | $5.08 | 2,161 | $10,977.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 11:45am ET | $5.02 | 2,161 | $10,851.03 | $10,854.67 |
$-126.85 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 12:35pm ET | $5.03 | 2,157 | $10,849.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 1:05pm ET | $5.00 | 2,157 | $10,785.00 | $10,789.96 |
$-64.71 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 10:30am ET | $5.09 | 2,121 | $10,785.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:35am ET | $5.03 | 2,121 | $10,670.11 | $10,674.79 |
$-115.17 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 2:40pm ET | $5.31 | 2,010 | $10,673.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $5.69 | 2,010 | $11,445.14 | $11,446.83 |
+$772.04 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:25am ET | $5.78 | 1,980 | $11,444.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 10:35am ET | $5.71 | 1,980 | $11,309.17 | $11,311.60 |
$-135.23 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.88 | 2,317 | $11,306.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:15am ET | $4.82 | 2,317 | $11,173.96 | $11,178.60 |
$-133.00 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:15pm ET | $4.64 | 2,409 | $11,177.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 12:45pm ET | $4.67 | 2,409 | $11,239.91 | $11,241.47 |
+$62.87 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $4.65 | 2,419 | $11,238.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $4.59 | 2,419 | $11,103.21 | $11,106.01 |
$-135.46 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:15am ET | $4.89 | 2,273 | $11,103.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 12:55pm ET | $4.83 | 2,273 | $10,978.59 | $10,981.00 |
$-125.01 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $4.87 | 2,254 | $10,976.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $4.82 | 2,254 | $10,866.53 | $10,870.55 |
$-110.45 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $4.93 | 2,207 | $10,869.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $5.05 | 2,207 | $11,156.38 | $11,157.46 |
+$286.91 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $5.03 | 2,215 | $11,152.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:35pm ET | $4.98 | 2,215 | $11,030.70 | $11,035.64 |
$-121.82 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 10:20am ET | $5.09 | 2,168 | $11,035.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 11:10am ET | $5.03 | 2,168 | $10,915.88 | $10,916.40 |
$-119.24 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.27 | 2,071 | $10,914.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.16 | 2,071 | $12,767.71 | $12,769.94 |
+$1,853.54 (+17.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.63 | 2,270 | $12,768.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET | $5.34 | 2,270 | $12,126.57 | $12,127.76 |
$-642.18 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.29 | 1,928 | $12,123.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $5.95 | 1,928 | $11,468.52 | $11,472.43 |
$-655.33 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.88 | 1,951 | $11,471.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $5.55 | 1,951 | $10,837.80 | $10,838.35 |
$-634.08 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.18 | 1,753 | $10,836.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.84 | 1,753 | $10,241.20 | $10,243.03 |
$-595.32 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.99 | 2,054 | $10,239.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.72 | 2,054 | $9,694.06 | $9,697.90 |
$-545.13 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.99 | 2,054 | $10,239.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.68 | 2,054 | $9,622.99 | $9,081.70 |
$-616.20 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.72 | 1,922 | $9,081.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.47 | 1,922 | $8,600.95 | $8,601.20 |
$-480.50 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,601.20
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,398.80
Total Return:
-13.99%