NVDA Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 36 trades in period
-0.97%
Last Year Return
$20,363.42
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$20,563.47
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
41
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
15.8/35
Total Return
16.8/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality
42.6/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 41.3
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,908
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$20,563.47
Current Value
$20,363.42
Period P&L
$-200.05
Max Drawdown
-22.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
12 /
24
Best Trade
+15.29%
Worst Trade
-6.38%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,419,956.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-200.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$-200.05
Gross Return
-0.97%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.97%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $20,563.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $176.27 | 116 | $20,447.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 10:30am ET | $175.51 | 116 | $20,359.16 | $20,475.31 |
$-88.16 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $184.69 | 110 | $20,315.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 10:30am ET | $187.18 | 110 | $20,589.80 | $20,749.21 |
+$273.90 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:35am ET | $187.34 | 110 | $20,607.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 11:05am ET | $189.46 | 110 | $20,840.60 | $20,982.41 |
+$233.20 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 10:25am ET | $195.25 | 107 | $20,891.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $191.92 | 107 | $20,535.44 | $20,626.10 |
$-356.31 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 10:40am ET | $183.17 | 112 | $20,514.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 12:15pm ET | $181.21 | 112 | $20,295.52 | $20,407.14 |
$-218.96 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 10:20am ET | $183.40 | 111 | $20,357.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $181.25 | 111 | $20,118.75 | $20,168.49 |
$-238.65 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 10:20am ET | $184.35 | 109 | $20,094.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 10:00am ET | $180.47 | 109 | $19,670.69 | $19,745.04 |
$-423.45 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 10:55am ET | $182.30 | 108 | $19,687.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 11:25am ET | $185.19 | 108 | $20,000.52 | $20,057.70 |
+$312.66 (+1.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 3:05pm ET | $186.68 | 107 | $19,974.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 12:55pm ET | $191.47 | 107 | $20,487.74 | $20,570.69 |
+$512.99 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 1:35pm ET | $196.15 | 104 | $20,399.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 3:05pm ET | $201.57 | 104 | $20,963.37 | $21,134.61 |
+$563.92 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 12:30pm ET | $210.15 | 100 | $21,015.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 2:20pm ET | $207.98 | 100 | $20,798.00 | $20,917.61 |
$-217.00 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:40am ET | $201.06 | 104 | $20,910.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 3:30pm ET | $198.96 | 104 | $20,691.32 | $20,698.69 |
$-218.92 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:40pm ET | $186.59 | 110 | $20,524.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $195.29 | 110 | $21,481.86 | $21,655.60 |
+$956.91 (+4.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:20am ET | $196.48 | 110 | $21,612.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 11:20am ET | $194.51 | 110 | $21,395.55 | $21,438.36 |
$-217.24 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:45am ET | $188.84 | 113 | $21,339.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 10:05am ET | $186.62 | 113 | $21,088.06 | $21,187.00 |
$-251.36 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 1:45pm ET | $183.72 | 115 | $21,127.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 2:50pm ET | $181.16 | 115 | $20,833.39 | $20,892.59 |
$-294.41 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 11:10am ET | $181.49 | 115 | $20,871.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $169.90 | 115 | $19,538.45 | $19,560.04 |
$-1,332.55 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 12:20pm ET | $175.91 | 111 | $19,525.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 2:35pm ET | $173.95 | 111 | $19,307.90 | $19,342.48 |
$-217.56 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 10:35am ET | $179.82 | 107 | $19,240.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $185.12 | 107 | $19,807.84 | $19,909.58 |
+$567.10 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 11:55am ET | $184.24 | 108 | $19,897.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 2:20pm ET | $182.17 | 108 | $19,674.36 | $19,686.02 |
$-223.56 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 1:05pm ET | $187.46 | 105 | $19,682.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 1:30pm ET | $185.33 | 105 | $19,459.65 | $19,462.89 |
$-223.13 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 2:30pm ET | $181.03 | 107 | $19,370.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET | $177.24 | 107 | $18,964.68 | $19,057.36 |
$-405.53 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 3:35pm ET | $177.90 | 107 | $19,035.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $174.12 | 107 | $18,630.85 | $18,652.92 |
$-404.44 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 10:35am ET | $175.93 | 106 | $18,648.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:15pm ET | $174.17 | 106 | $18,461.49 | $18,465.66 |
$-187.26 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 3:55pm ET | $180.99 | 102 | $18,460.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:25am ET | $185.28 | 102 | $18,898.05 | $18,902.73 |
+$437.07 (+2.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 10:35am ET | $185.59 | 101 | $18,744.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 11:05am ET | $187.50 | 101 | $18,937.00 | $19,095.64 |
+$192.91 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:20am ET | $191.20 | 99 | $18,928.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:35am ET | $189.22 | 99 | $18,732.29 | $18,899.62 |
$-196.02 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 1:25pm ET | $186.78 | 101 | $18,864.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $184.89 | 101 | $18,673.89 | $18,708.72 |
$-190.90 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:20am ET | $185.70 | 100 | $18,570.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $180.97 | 100 | $18,097.46 | $18,236.08 |
$-472.64 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $181.94 | 100 | $18,194.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $179.78 | 100 | $17,977.50 | $18,019.58 |
$-216.50 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $188.53 | 95 | $17,910.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:35am ET | $191.37 | 95 | $18,179.68 | $18,288.91 |
+$269.33 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $194.37 | 94 | $18,270.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 11:15am ET | $192.35 | 94 | $18,080.90 | $18,099.50 |
$-189.41 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $189.04 | 95 | $17,958.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:00pm ET | $187.06 | 95 | $17,770.70 | $17,911.87 |
$-187.63 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:25am ET | $182.65 | 98 | $17,899.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $190.88 | 98 | $18,706.24 | $18,718.41 |
+$806.54 (+4.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.60 | 101 | $18,644.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $212.82 | 101 | $21,495.32 | $21,569.13 |
+$2,850.72 (+15.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.06 | 97 | $21,539.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $209.63 | 97 | $20,334.11 | $20,363.42 |
$-1,205.71 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$20,363.42
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10,363.42
Total Return:
+103.63%