ORCL Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-26 to present • 39 trades in period
-40.38%
Last Year Return
$11,649.18
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$19,538.08
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
74
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026
18
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.5/35
Total Return
10.3/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
18.7/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 17.9
30-Day Momentum
0
-15.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,464
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-26 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$19,538.08
Current Value
$11,649.18
Period P&L
$-7,888.90
Max Drawdown
-23.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.27
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
12 /
27
Best Trade
+15.11%
Worst Trade
-15.00%
Avg Trade Return
-1.22%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,345,330.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-7,888.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$-7,888.90
Gross Return
-40.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-40.38%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $19,538.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:50am ET | $282.23 | 69 | $19,474.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 1:00pm ET | $289.53 | 69 | $19,977.57 | $20,041.57 |
+$503.49 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $289.47 | 69 | $19,973.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 10:40am ET | $285.54 | 69 | $19,702.26 | $19,770.40 |
$-271.17 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 10:05am ET | $294.45 | 67 | $19,727.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $302.95 | 67 | $20,297.32 | $20,339.81 |
+$569.41 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 10:30am ET | $305.55 | 66 | $20,166.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:05am ET | $301.24 | 66 | $19,881.84 | $20,055.35 |
$-284.46 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 10:20am ET | $311.94 | 64 | $19,964.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 10:55am ET | $307.28 | 64 | $19,665.92 | $19,757.11 |
$-298.24 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 11:45am ET | $279.91 | 70 | $19,593.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 1:15pm ET | $276.42 | 70 | $19,349.41 | $19,512.82 |
$-244.29 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 10:45am ET | $280.20 | 69 | $19,333.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 11:15am ET | $285.66 | 69 | $19,710.54 | $19,889.91 |
+$377.09 (+1.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 12:40pm ET | $285.27 | 69 | $19,683.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 3:20pm ET | $282.29 | 69 | $19,477.90 | $19,684.18 |
$-205.73 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:30am ET | $263.50 | 74 | $19,499.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 11:45am ET | $260.33 | 74 | $19,264.43 | $19,449.61 |
$-234.57 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:15am ET | $250.62 | 77 | $19,297.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $240.70 | 77 | $18,533.90 | $18,685.77 |
$-763.84 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:05am ET | $218.31 | 85 | $18,556.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 10:10am ET | $215.55 | 85 | $18,321.75 | $18,450.96 |
$-234.81 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:45pm ET | $221.00 | 83 | $18,343.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $228.00 | 83 | $18,924.00 | $19,031.96 |
+$581.00 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:15am ET | $226.82 | 83 | $18,826.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:45am ET | $223.26 | 83 | $18,530.76 | $18,736.66 |
$-295.30 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $202.45 | 92 | $18,625.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:25am ET | $200.03 | 92 | $18,402.76 | $18,514.02 |
$-222.64 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:05am ET | $195.15 | 94 | $18,344.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $203.83 | 94 | $19,160.02 | $19,329.94 |
+$815.92 (+4.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:15am ET | $201.62 | 95 | $19,153.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 1:40pm ET | $201.69 | 95 | $19,160.08 | $19,336.11 |
+$6.17 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 12:20pm ET | $205.18 | 94 | $19,286.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 10:30am ET | $211.74 | 94 | $19,903.56 | $19,952.75 |
+$616.64 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $212.03 | 94 | $19,930.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:10am ET | $217.78 | 94 | $20,471.32 | $20,493.25 |
+$540.50 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 3:20pm ET | $223.91 | 91 | $20,375.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $190.32 | 91 | $17,319.12 | $17,436.55 |
$-3,056.70 (-15.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 10:10am ET | $193.80 | 89 | $17,248.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 11:15am ET | $191.68 | 89 | $17,059.08 | $17,247.51 |
$-189.04 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 1:45pm ET | $189.21 | 91 | $17,217.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $180.40 | 91 | $16,416.22 | $16,446.07 |
$-801.44 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 12:55pm ET | $198.30 | 82 | $16,260.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $192.90 | 82 | $15,817.80 | $16,003.27 |
$-442.80 (-2.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $194.36 | 82 | $15,937.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $194.22 | 82 | $15,926.04 | $15,991.53 |
$-11.74 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $193.58 | 82 | $15,873.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $198.73 | 82 | $16,295.86 | $16,413.83 |
+$422.30 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $201.27 | 81 | $16,302.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:20am ET | $202.18 | 81 | $16,376.18 | $16,487.30 |
+$73.47 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:10pm ET | $190.95 | 86 | $16,421.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $183.58 | 86 | $15,787.88 | $15,853.48 |
$-633.82 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:05am ET | $175.66 | 90 | $15,809.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET | $181.04 | 90 | $16,293.60 | $16,337.68 |
+$484.20 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $157.32 | 103 | $16,203.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $155.05 | 103 | $15,969.74 | $16,103.47 |
$-234.21 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $161.53 | 99 | $15,991.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $159.85 | 99 | $15,825.64 | $15,937.64 |
$-165.83 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 1:50pm ET | $158.63 | 100 | $15,862.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 3:45pm ET | $156.64 | 100 | $15,664.00 | $15,739.14 |
$-198.50 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.00 | 94 | $15,604.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $157.04 | 94 | $14,761.97 | $14,897.11 |
$-842.03 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $151.00 | 98 | $14,798.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:55pm ET | $143.44 | 98 | $14,057.12 | $14,156.23 |
$-740.88 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.59 | 84 | $13,993.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 12:00pm ET | $191.76 | 84 | $16,107.96 | $16,270.63 |
+$2,114.40 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.84 | 70 | $16,228.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $220.07 | 70 | $15,404.90 | $15,446.63 |
$-824.00 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.90 | 107 | $15,397.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $136.45 | 107 | $14,599.62 | $14,648.95 |
$-797.68 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $153.13 | 95 | $14,547.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.39 | 95 | $13,622.05 | $13,723.65 |
$-925.30 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.48 | 90 | $13,723.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $144.79 | 90 | $13,031.10 | $13,031.55 |
$-692.10 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $167.75 | 77 | $12,916.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $157.75 | 77 | $12,146.75 | $12,261.55 |
$-770.00 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $163.72 | 74 | $12,115.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $155.44 | 74 | $11,502.91 | $11,649.18 |
$-612.37 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,649.18
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,649.18
Total Return:
+16.49%