PANW Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 36 trades in period
+11.55%
Last Year Return
$9,878.66
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$8,855.66
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
6
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
6.1/100
× Confidence 0.93
= 5.7
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
22,443
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$8,855.66
Current Value
$9,878.66
Period P&L
$1,023.00
Max Drawdown
-26.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
13 /
23
Best Trade
+15.19%
Worst Trade
-6.66%
Avg Trade Return
+0.39%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$617,657.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,023.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,023.00
Gross Return
+11.55%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.55%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,855.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 11:45am ET | $203.21 | 43 | $8,737.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 10:10am ET | $200.89 | 43 | $8,638.06 | $8,755.90 |
$-99.76 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 3:30pm ET | $205.71 | 42 | $8,640.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $208.40 | 42 | $8,752.80 | $8,868.70 |
+$112.80 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 2:00pm ET | $213.63 | 41 | $8,758.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $210.97 | 41 | $8,649.81 | $8,759.59 |
$-109.11 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 11:50am ET | $216.62 | 40 | $8,664.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 12:20pm ET | $216.43 | 40 | $8,657.00 | $8,751.79 |
$-7.80 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:45am ET | $209.81 | 41 | $8,602.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 1:10pm ET | $206.94 | 41 | $8,484.54 | $8,634.32 |
$-117.47 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 12:00pm ET | $207.58 | 41 | $8,510.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 12:30pm ET | $211.69 | 41 | $8,679.09 | $8,802.63 |
+$168.31 (+2.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 11:15am ET | $214.04 | 41 | $8,775.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:35am ET | $211.56 | 41 | $8,673.96 | $8,700.95 |
$-101.68 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 11:20am ET | $221.16 | 39 | $8,625.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 3:00pm ET | $218.93 | 39 | $8,538.08 | $8,613.79 |
$-87.16 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 3:05pm ET | $212.46 | 40 | $8,498.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $208.47 | 40 | $8,338.80 | $8,454.19 |
$-159.60 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:40pm ET | $212.08 | 39 | $8,271.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 3:10pm ET | $216.18 | 39 | $8,430.83 | $8,613.90 |
+$159.71 (+1.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 3:20pm ET | $216.15 | 39 | $8,429.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 3:50pm ET | $218.71 | 39 | $8,529.69 | $8,713.78 |
+$99.88 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $203.78 | 42 | $8,558.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 11:05am ET | $204.46 | 42 | $8,587.32 | $8,742.55 |
+$28.77 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:25am ET | $201.99 | 43 | $8,685.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:35pm ET | $199.93 | 43 | $8,596.95 | $8,654.14 |
$-88.41 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:35am ET | $185.16 | 46 | $8,517.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 12:05pm ET | $185.30 | 46 | $8,523.57 | $8,660.35 |
+$6.21 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 11:10am ET | $190.73 | 45 | $8,582.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $187.85 | 45 | $8,453.25 | $8,530.75 |
$-129.60 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 12:10pm ET | $191.53 | 44 | $8,427.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 3:50pm ET | $189.34 | 44 | $8,330.96 | $8,434.39 |
$-96.36 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:40am ET | $190.99 | 44 | $8,403.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:10am ET | $194.43 | 44 | $8,554.92 | $8,585.75 |
+$151.36 (+1.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:10am ET | $199.29 | 43 | $8,569.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 11:30am ET | $197.14 | 43 | $8,477.02 | $8,493.30 |
$-92.45 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 11:55am ET | $188.20 | 45 | $8,469.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 12:50pm ET | $186.21 | 45 | $8,379.45 | $8,403.75 |
$-89.55 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 10:10am ET | $190.00 | 44 | $8,360.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $187.63 | 44 | $8,255.72 | $8,299.47 |
$-104.28 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 11:25am ET | $188.19 | 44 | $8,280.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 11:55am ET | $186.79 | 44 | $8,218.76 | $8,237.87 |
$-61.60 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $185.32 | 44 | $8,153.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $183.43 | 44 | $8,070.70 | $8,154.71 |
$-83.16 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $184.80 | 44 | $8,131.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $190.06 | 44 | $8,362.64 | $8,386.15 |
+$231.44 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:30am ET | $191.05 | 43 | $8,215.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:25pm ET | $195.87 | 43 | $8,422.58 | $8,593.58 |
+$207.43 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $193.96 | 44 | $8,534.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $191.84 | 44 | $8,440.96 | $8,500.30 |
$-93.28 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 11:45am ET | $189.05 | 44 | $8,318.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $183.80 | 44 | $8,086.98 | $8,269.08 |
$-231.22 (-2.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $186.37 | 44 | $8,200.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $184.43 | 44 | $8,114.70 | $8,183.72 |
$-85.36 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $183.50 | 44 | $8,073.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $183.06 | 44 | $8,054.64 | $8,164.58 |
$-19.14 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $177.77 | 45 | $7,999.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:10am ET | $176.80 | 45 | $7,956.00 | $8,121.16 |
$-43.42 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $165.80 | 48 | $7,958.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $163.52 | 48 | $7,848.96 | $8,011.72 |
$-109.44 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 12:30pm ET | $158.50 | 50 | $7,925.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:45pm ET | $162.61 | 50 | $8,130.51 | $8,217.23 |
+$205.51 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:50pm ET | $162.40 | 50 | $8,120.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 2:20pm ET | $166.66 | 50 | $8,332.98 | $8,430.21 |
+$212.98 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $151.53 | 55 | $8,334.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $174.54 | 55 | $9,599.97 | $9,696.03 |
+$1,265.82 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.08 | 50 | $9,554.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 12:40pm ET | $219.87 | 50 | $10,993.50 | $11,135.53 |
+$1,439.50 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $344.79 | 32 | $11,033.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $327.14 | 32 | $10,468.64 | $10,570.89 |
$-564.64 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $358.56 | 29 | $10,398.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.69 | 29 | $9,706.01 | $9,878.66 |
$-692.23 (-6.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,878.66
Net Profit/Loss:
$-121.34
Total Return:
-1.21%