QQQ Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 30 trades in period
+10.46%
Last Year Return
$12,200.84
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$11,045.64
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026
25
Lifetime
Confidence: 78%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.4/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
5.3/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality
31.3/100
× Confidence 0.78
= 24.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (78%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
30,066
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,045.64
Current Value
$12,200.84
Period P&L
$1,155.20
Max Drawdown
-14.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
14 /
16
Best Trade
+15.07%
Worst Trade
-6.47%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$675,391.77
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,155.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,155.20
Gross Return
+10.46%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.46%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,045.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:45am ET | $594.09 | 18 | $10,693.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 11:15am ET | $593.09 | 18 | $10,675.62 | $11,027.56 |
$-18.08 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 3:50pm ET | $600.54 | 18 | $10,809.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 10:20am ET | $605.06 | 18 | $10,891.10 | $11,108.94 |
+$81.38 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 12:10pm ET | $609.83 | 18 | $10,976.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 12:40pm ET | $609.36 | 18 | $10,968.48 | $11,100.57 |
$-8.37 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:25am ET | $597.30 | 18 | $10,751.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:55am ET | $606.34 | 18 | $10,914.12 | $11,263.29 |
+$162.72 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 2:05pm ET | $603.46 | 18 | $10,862.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 2:35pm ET | $612.17 | 18 | $11,019.06 | $11,420.07 |
+$156.78 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 2:40pm ET | $612.08 | 18 | $11,017.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 3:10pm ET | $611.93 | 18 | $11,014.74 | $11,417.37 |
$-2.70 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 1:35pm ET | $610.96 | 18 | $10,997.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 2:05pm ET | $618.00 | 18 | $11,124.00 | $11,544.09 |
+$126.72 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 2:40pm ET | $627.43 | 18 | $11,293.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 3:10pm ET | $634.10 | 18 | $11,413.80 | $11,664.24 |
+$120.15 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 3:15pm ET | $634.06 | 18 | $11,413.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 3:45pm ET | $634.50 | 18 | $11,420.91 | $11,672.15 |
+$7.91 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:45am ET | $624.21 | 18 | $11,235.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $615.57 | 18 | $11,080.26 | $11,516.63 |
$-155.52 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 3:40pm ET | $623.71 | 18 | $11,226.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:10am ET | $620.36 | 18 | $11,166.48 | $11,456.33 |
$-60.30 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $608.10 | 18 | $10,945.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 11:05am ET | $606.50 | 18 | $10,916.91 | $11,427.44 |
$-28.89 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET | $591.59 | 19 | $11,240.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:25pm ET | $604.02 | 19 | $11,476.38 | $11,663.61 |
+$236.17 (+2.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:30pm ET | $604.13 | 19 | $11,478.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 1:00pm ET | $607.05 | 19 | $11,533.95 | $11,719.09 |
+$55.48 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 1:05pm ET | $607.20 | 19 | $11,536.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 1:35pm ET | $614.74 | 19 | $11,680.15 | $11,862.53 |
+$143.44 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 12:40pm ET | $619.11 | 19 | $11,763.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 1:10pm ET | $620.91 | 19 | $11,797.29 | $11,896.73 |
+$34.20 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 12:20pm ET | $622.73 | 19 | $11,831.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 12:50pm ET | $622.67 | 19 | $11,830.73 | $11,895.59 |
$-1.14 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 1:50pm ET | $625.77 | 19 | $11,889.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 2:20pm ET | $624.15 | 19 | $11,858.85 | $11,864.84 |
$-30.75 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:50pm ET | $627.17 | 18 | $11,289.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $619.26 | 18 | $11,146.68 | $11,722.46 |
$-142.38 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $627.31 | 18 | $11,291.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:00am ET | $618.76 | 18 | $11,137.59 | $11,568.47 |
$-153.99 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $625.50 | 18 | $11,259.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:35am ET | $627.00 | 18 | $11,285.91 | $11,595.38 |
+$26.91 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 2:30pm ET | $628.61 | 18 | $11,314.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:00pm ET | $624.87 | 18 | $11,247.66 | $11,528.06 |
$-67.32 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:35am ET | $615.22 | 18 | $11,073.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET | $608.50 | 18 | $10,953.00 | $11,407.10 |
$-120.96 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $623.06 | 18 | $11,215.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:50am ET | $626.49 | 18 | $11,276.73 | $11,468.77 |
+$61.67 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $627.40 | 18 | $11,293.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $620.46 | 18 | $11,168.28 | $11,343.94 |
$-124.83 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET | $607.68 | 18 | $10,938.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:55pm ET | $614.73 | 18 | $11,065.14 | $11,470.84 |
+$126.90 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $615.03 | 18 | $11,070.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $613.06 | 18 | $11,035.08 | $11,435.38 |
$-35.46 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 12:10pm ET | $605.42 | 18 | $10,897.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $601.26 | 18 | $10,822.68 | $11,360.50 |
$-74.88 (-0.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $609.17 | 18 | $10,965.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $700.96 | 18 | $12,617.28 | $13,012.72 |
+$1,652.22 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
29.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $738.03 | 17 | $12,546.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $690.27 | 17 | $11,734.63 | $12,200.84 |
$-811.88 (-6.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
32d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,200.84
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,200.84
Total Return:
+22.01%