RBLX Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 42 trades in period
-25.73%
Last Year Return
$9,442.37
Current Value
24%
Win Rate
$12,713.83
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
8
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.2/35
Total Return
3.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
8.0/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 7.7
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,321
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$12,713.83
Current Value
$9,442.37
Period P&L
$-3,271.46
Max Drawdown
-27.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
10 /
32
Best Trade
+15.66%
Worst Trade
-10.07%
Avg Trade Return
-0.61%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$932,244.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,271.46
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,271.46
Gross Return
-25.73%
Net Return (after fees)
-25.73%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,713.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:15am ET | $132.41 | 96 | $12,711.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 10:45am ET | $131.25 | 96 | $12,599.52 | $12,602.04 |
$-111.79 (-0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 2:35pm ET | $133.93 | 94 | $12,589.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $140.15 | 94 | $13,174.10 | $13,186.72 |
+$584.68 (+4.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 11:35am ET | $124.77 | 105 | $13,100.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $123.38 | 105 | $12,954.90 | $13,041.21 |
$-145.51 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:20am ET | $131.71 | 99 | $13,039.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 11:05am ET | $135.30 | 99 | $13,394.70 | $13,396.62 |
+$355.41 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 10:45am ET | $129.86 | 103 | $13,375.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 11:15am ET | $130.45 | 103 | $13,435.84 | $13,456.87 |
+$60.25 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 1:55pm ET | $131.05 | 102 | $13,367.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 3:00pm ET | $129.64 | 102 | $13,223.29 | $13,313.11 |
$-143.76 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 10:10am ET | $132.71 | 100 | $13,271.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $119.34 | 100 | $11,934.00 | $11,976.11 |
$-1,337.00 (-10.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 3:50pm ET | $107.23 | 111 | $11,902.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 11:50am ET | $105.98 | 111 | $11,763.77 | $11,837.35 |
$-138.76 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:20am ET | $102.84 | 115 | $11,826.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $101.64 | 115 | $11,688.51 | $11,699.26 |
$-138.09 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 1:05pm ET | $102.85 | 113 | $11,622.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 3:45pm ET | $101.72 | 113 | $11,494.36 | $11,571.57 |
$-127.69 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $90.36 | 128 | $11,565.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:40am ET | $89.42 | 128 | $11,445.76 | $11,451.89 |
$-119.68 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 10:55am ET | $90.03 | 127 | $11,433.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $94.01 | 127 | $11,939.02 | $11,957.10 |
+$505.21 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 10:30am ET | $94.38 | 126 | $11,891.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 2:55pm ET | $93.43 | 126 | $11,772.18 | $11,837.40 |
$-119.70 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:25am ET | $95.60 | 123 | $11,758.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $92.35 | 123 | $11,359.05 | $11,437.65 |
$-399.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 11:40am ET | $93.89 | 121 | $11,360.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 1:25pm ET | $92.93 | 121 | $11,244.53 | $11,322.09 |
$-115.56 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 1:55pm ET | $93.51 | 121 | $11,314.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 3:05pm ET | $92.30 | 121 | $11,167.70 | $11,175.07 |
$-147.02 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 11:05am ET | $92.98 | 120 | $11,157.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 12:30pm ET | $95.34 | 120 | $11,440.80 | $11,458.87 |
+$283.80 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 3:50pm ET | $97.47 | 117 | $11,403.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:20am ET | $96.97 | 117 | $11,345.49 | $11,400.37 |
$-58.50 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 10:10am ET | $95.90 | 118 | $11,315.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 11:05am ET | $94.80 | 118 | $11,185.81 | $11,270.45 |
$-129.92 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 2:15pm ET | $88.34 | 127 | $11,219.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 3:00pm ET | $87.41 | 127 | $11,101.07 | $11,152.34 |
$-118.11 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 11:00am ET | $81.72 | 136 | $11,113.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 2:25pm ET | $82.11 | 136 | $11,166.96 | $11,206.06 |
+$53.72 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 2:30pm ET | $82.17 | 136 | $11,175.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 12:35pm ET | $81.33 | 136 | $11,060.20 | $11,091.14 |
$-114.92 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 2:20pm ET | $82.37 | 134 | $11,037.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 10:00am ET | $80.93 | 134 | $10,844.62 | $10,897.98 |
$-193.16 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:45am ET | $82.18 | 132 | $10,847.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $81.30 | 132 | $10,730.94 | $10,781.16 |
$-116.82 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $77.09 | 139 | $10,714.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:45pm ET | $76.27 | 139 | $10,601.53 | $10,667.87 |
$-113.29 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $81.36 | 131 | $10,658.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:45am ET | $83.62 | 131 | $10,953.57 | $10,963.27 |
+$295.40 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $85.23 | 128 | $10,909.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $87.57 | 128 | $11,208.96 | $11,262.93 |
+$299.66 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $89.89 | 125 | $11,235.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 11:00am ET | $88.66 | 125 | $11,081.88 | $11,109.18 |
$-153.75 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:05pm ET | $73.63 | 150 | $11,043.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $72.36 | 150 | $10,854.00 | $10,919.43 |
$-189.75 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $75.97 | 143 | $10,863.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $75.09 | 143 | $10,737.16 | $10,793.59 |
$-125.84 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $75.73 | 142 | $10,753.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:00am ET | $73.25 | 142 | $10,401.95 | $10,441.88 |
$-351.71 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 2:50pm ET | $64.73 | 161 | $10,421.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 3:40pm ET | $64.01 | 161 | $10,305.61 | $10,325.96 |
$-115.92 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $68.02 | 151 | $10,271.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 1:50pm ET | $67.26 | 151 | $10,156.26 | $10,211.20 |
$-114.76 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $73.29 | 139 | $10,187.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $72.50 | 139 | $10,077.50 | $10,101.40 |
$-109.80 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.65 | 169 | $10,081.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 1:50pm ET | $56.67 | 169 | $9,576.39 | $9,596.09 |
$-505.31 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.61 | 160 | $9,537.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $56.39 | 160 | $9,022.40 | $9,080.89 |
$-515.20 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.86 | 202 | $9,061.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $42.44 | 202 | $8,572.88 | $8,592.05 |
$-488.84 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.66 | 192 | $8,574.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $51.65 | 192 | $9,917.76 | $9,935.09 |
+$1,343.04 (+15.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.25 | 190 | $9,927.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.75 | 190 | $9,262.50 | $9,270.09 |
$-665.00 (-6.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.88 | 232 | $9,252.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $37.84 | 232 | $8,778.88 | $8,796.81 |
$-473.28 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.19 | 203 | $8,766.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $49.74 | 203 | $10,096.21 | $10,126.46 |
+$1,329.65 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.00 | 198 | $10,098.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 2:25pm ET | $47.54 | 198 | $9,413.91 | $9,442.37 |
$-684.09 (-6.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,442.37
Net Profit/Loss:
$-557.63
Total Return:
-5.58%