RIVN Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 50 trades in period
-26.07%
Last Year Return
$5,730.80
Current Value
30%
Win Rate
$7,752.05
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality
3.7/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 3.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
27,892
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$7,752.05
Current Value
$5,730.80
Period P&L
$-2,021.25
Max Drawdown
-43.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
15 /
35
Best Trade
+15.17%
Worst Trade
-6.79%
Avg Trade Return
-0.54%
Avg Hold Time
1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$784,482.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,021.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,021.25
Gross Return
-26.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-26.07%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,752.05 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 11:00am ET | $15.72 | 493 | $7,747.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 1:45pm ET | $15.53 | 493 | $7,656.29 | $7,660.84 |
$-91.21 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 10:30am ET | $13.08 | 585 | $7,651.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $12.80 | 585 | $7,489.46 | $7,498.50 |
$-162.34 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 11:45am ET | $12.91 | 581 | $7,497.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 3:15pm ET | $13.24 | 581 | $7,691.39 | $7,692.09 |
+$193.59 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $13.58 | 566 | $7,683.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:20am ET | $13.43 | 566 | $7,598.55 | $7,607.19 |
$-84.90 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $13.18 | 577 | $7,601.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $13.04 | 577 | $7,524.08 | $7,529.29 |
$-77.90 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $13.20 | 570 | $7,521.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 11:00am ET | $13.53 | 570 | $7,709.25 | $7,717.39 |
+$188.10 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 10:20am ET | $13.04 | 592 | $7,716.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 10:50am ET | $13.08 | 592 | $7,740.40 | $7,741.07 |
+$23.68 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 10:50am ET | $13.30 | 582 | $7,737.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 2:10pm ET | $13.67 | 582 | $7,953.03 | $7,956.41 |
+$215.34 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 10:50am ET | $13.56 | 586 | $7,946.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 11:30am ET | $13.42 | 586 | $7,865.76 | $7,876.01 |
$-80.40 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:55am ET | $13.16 | 598 | $7,866.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 3:55pm ET | $13.59 | 598 | $8,126.82 | $8,136.14 |
+$260.13 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:10am ET | $14.06 | 578 | $8,126.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 10:15am ET | $13.91 | 578 | $8,037.09 | $8,046.55 |
$-89.59 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:55pm ET | $15.16 | 530 | $8,032.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:30am ET | $15.59 | 530 | $8,262.75 | $8,277.15 |
+$230.60 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 11:30am ET | $15.71 | 526 | $8,263.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 12:25pm ET | $16.14 | 526 | $8,489.64 | $8,502.96 |
+$225.81 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 10:10am ET | $17.25 | 493 | $8,501.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 11:20am ET | $17.80 | 493 | $8,775.05 | $8,776.23 |
+$273.27 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 11:40am ET | $15.20 | 577 | $8,767.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 12:15pm ET | $15.04 | 577 | $8,675.20 | $8,683.91 |
$-92.32 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 11:20am ET | $14.93 | 581 | $8,674.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:25am ET | $14.78 | 581 | $8,584.28 | $8,593.86 |
$-90.05 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 3:35pm ET | $14.91 | 576 | $8,588.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 3:50pm ET | $14.75 | 576 | $8,493.12 | $8,498.82 |
$-95.04 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 3:00pm ET | $15.01 | 566 | $8,497.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 3:55pm ET | $14.84 | 566 | $8,399.44 | $8,400.90 |
$-97.92 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 12:20pm ET | $15.42 | 544 | $8,385.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:15am ET | $15.90 | 544 | $8,647.80 | $8,662.94 |
+$262.04 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 10:55am ET | $15.98 | 542 | $8,662.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 11:25am ET | $15.80 | 542 | $8,560.89 | $8,560.94 |
$-102.00 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 12:55pm ET | $17.52 | 488 | $8,547.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 2:45pm ET | $17.32 | 488 | $8,449.72 | $8,463.34 |
$-97.60 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 12:10pm ET | $17.49 | 483 | $8,447.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 1:00pm ET | $17.26 | 483 | $8,334.17 | $8,349.83 |
$-113.51 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 10:25am ET | $18.38 | 454 | $8,344.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $18.17 | 454 | $8,246.91 | $8,252.22 |
$-97.61 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:15am ET | $19.38 | 425 | $8,236.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:30am ET | $19.08 | 425 | $8,106.88 | $8,122.59 |
$-129.63 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 12:40pm ET | $19.27 | 421 | $8,110.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 3:20pm ET | $19.04 | 421 | $8,015.84 | $8,027.86 |
$-94.73 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 1:25pm ET | $19.26 | 416 | $8,010.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 3:05pm ET | $19.79 | 416 | $8,230.56 | $8,248.34 |
+$220.48 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 10:05am ET | $21.44 | 384 | $8,231.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 11:25am ET | $22.07 | 384 | $8,472.96 | $8,490.26 |
+$241.92 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 11:05am ET | $21.39 | 397 | $8,490.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 12:50pm ET | $21.12 | 397 | $8,384.64 | $8,384.82 |
$-105.44 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 10:35am ET | $20.85 | 402 | $8,379.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $19.43 | 402 | $7,810.86 | $7,815.99 |
$-568.83 (-6.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 11:35am ET | $19.80 | 394 | $7,801.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $20.32 | 394 | $8,006.08 | $8,020.87 |
+$204.88 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $19.84 | 404 | $8,015.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:00pm ET | $19.64 | 404 | $7,932.54 | $7,938.01 |
$-82.86 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:35am ET | $19.60 | 405 | $7,935.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:25pm ET | $20.14 | 405 | $8,154.68 | $8,156.71 |
+$218.70 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 11:30am ET | $20.84 | 391 | $8,148.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 11:35am ET | $20.61 | 391 | $8,058.51 | $8,066.78 |
$-89.93 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:35am ET | $19.33 | 417 | $8,060.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 12:50pm ET | $19.12 | 417 | $7,974.75 | $7,980.96 |
$-85.82 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $16.51 | 483 | $7,971.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $16.32 | 483 | $7,880.15 | $7,889.19 |
$-91.77 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 1:10pm ET | $15.48 | 509 | $7,876.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:30pm ET | $15.30 | 509 | $7,787.70 | $7,800.12 |
$-89.07 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $14.58 | 535 | $7,798.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $14.41 | 535 | $7,712.02 | $7,713.45 |
$-86.67 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $14.20 | 543 | $7,710.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:05pm ET | $14.56 | 543 | $7,908.79 | $7,911.64 |
+$198.19 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:45am ET | $14.86 | 532 | $7,908.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $14.70 | 532 | $7,823.06 | $7,826.52 |
$-85.12 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $15.28 | 512 | $7,825.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $15.13 | 512 | $7,744.00 | $7,744.60 |
$-81.92 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 1:45pm ET | $18.08 | 428 | $7,739.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $17.89 | 428 | $7,654.78 | $7,659.64 |
$-84.96 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.75 | 457 | $7,653.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 12:05pm ET | $15.91 | 457 | $7,269.82 | $7,275.62 |
$-384.02 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.77 | 433 | $7,261.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 11:35am ET | $15.91 | 433 | $6,891.19 | $6,905.45 |
$-370.17 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.57 | 443 | $6,897.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.75 | 443 | $6,534.25 | $6,542.19 |
$-363.26 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.39 | 425 | $6,540.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $17.73 | 425 | $7,533.13 | $7,534.57 |
+$992.38 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.08 | 416 | $7,523.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:35am ET | $17.16 | 416 | $7,138.56 | $7,149.77 |
$-384.80 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.12 | 394 | $7,139.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $17.17 | 394 | $6,764.94 | $6,775.43 |
$-374.34 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.83 | 380 | $6,775.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.76 | 380 | $6,368.80 | $6,368.83 |
$-406.60 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.42 | 387 | $6,354.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.58 | 387 | $6,029.42 | $6,043.71 |
$-325.12 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.03 | 377 | $6,043.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.20 | 377 | $5,730.40 | $5,730.80 |
$-312.91 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,730.80
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,269.20
Total Return:
-42.69%