SMCI Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 42 trades in period
+29.33%
Last Year Return
$12,166.70
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$9,407.64
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
16
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.5/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
18.9/100
× Confidence 0.87
= 16.4
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,430
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,407.64
Current Value
$12,166.70
Period P&L
$2,759.06
Max Drawdown
-52.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
15 /
27
Best Trade
+17.19%
Worst Trade
-6.12%
Avg Trade Return
+0.77%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$819,556.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,759.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,759.06
Gross Return
+29.33%
Net Return (after fees)
+29.33%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,407.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:45am ET | $45.24 | 207 | $9,364.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 2:55pm ET | $46.42 | 207 | $9,607.91 | $9,650.86 |
+$243.22 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:40am ET | $47.19 | 204 | $9,626.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 11:25am ET | $46.68 | 204 | $9,522.72 | $9,546.82 |
$-104.04 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:15am ET | $49.33 | 193 | $9,520.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 2:10pm ET | $50.69 | 193 | $9,783.17 | $9,809.30 |
+$262.48 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 3:30pm ET | $52.83 | 185 | $9,772.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $52.28 | 185 | $9,671.62 | $9,708.09 |
$-101.21 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:10am ET | $56.31 | 172 | $9,684.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 11:25am ET | $57.85 | 172 | $9,949.68 | $9,973.31 |
+$265.22 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:20am ET | $54.98 | 181 | $9,951.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:50am ET | $54.42 | 181 | $9,849.97 | $9,871.90 |
$-101.41 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 11:05am ET | $55.91 | 176 | $9,840.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 11:35am ET | $55.14 | 176 | $9,704.64 | $9,735.62 |
$-136.28 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 11:25am ET | $52.93 | 183 | $9,686.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 3:55pm ET | $52.34 | 183 | $9,578.22 | $9,627.65 |
$-107.97 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:05am ET | $52.17 | 184 | $9,599.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 11:55am ET | $51.50 | 184 | $9,476.00 | $9,504.37 |
$-123.28 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:30am ET | $36.10 | 263 | $9,494.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 11:35am ET | $37.07 | 263 | $9,749.41 | $9,759.48 |
+$255.11 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:00pm ET | $34.94 | 279 | $9,748.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 12:15pm ET | $34.59 | 279 | $9,650.61 | $9,661.83 |
$-97.65 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 11:00am ET | $32.94 | 293 | $9,649.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $31.49 | 293 | $9,226.57 | $9,238.44 |
$-423.39 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 12:55pm ET | $33.84 | 273 | $9,238.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $33.17 | 273 | $9,055.41 | $9,055.53 |
$-182.91 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 1:35pm ET | $33.63 | 269 | $9,045.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 11:20am ET | $33.19 | 269 | $8,928.11 | $8,938.51 |
$-117.02 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 11:00am ET | $33.26 | 268 | $8,912.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 12:05pm ET | $32.92 | 268 | $8,822.56 | $8,848.73 |
$-89.78 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:40am ET | $33.93 | 260 | $8,820.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 11:10am ET | $34.40 | 260 | $8,942.70 | $8,970.93 |
+$122.20 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 11:15am ET | $34.40 | 260 | $8,942.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $35.33 | 260 | $9,184.50 | $9,212.50 |
+$241.57 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 1:05pm ET | $35.60 | 258 | $9,183.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 1:55pm ET | $35.12 | 258 | $9,059.85 | $9,088.84 |
$-123.66 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:10am ET | $30.31 | 299 | $9,062.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 3:40pm ET | $31.18 | 299 | $9,321.33 | $9,347.48 |
+$258.64 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $31.17 | 299 | $9,319.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $30.71 | 299 | $9,180.80 | $9,208.47 |
$-139.01 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $30.38 | 303 | $9,203.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $30.01 | 303 | $9,091.52 | $9,096.36 |
$-112.11 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $30.45 | 298 | $9,072.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:40pm ET | $30.12 | 298 | $8,974.27 | $8,998.02 |
$-98.34 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $29.42 | 305 | $8,973.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:00am ET | $32.00 | 305 | $9,759.97 | $9,784.89 |
+$786.87 (+8.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:10am ET | $32.12 | 304 | $9,764.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $31.78 | 304 | $9,661.12 | $9,681.53 |
$-103.36 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $31.56 | 306 | $9,655.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $31.03 | 306 | $9,495.18 | $9,520.88 |
$-160.65 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $32.33 | 294 | $9,504.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $31.84 | 294 | $9,362.28 | $9,378.17 |
$-142.71 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $31.05 | 302 | $9,377.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $31.86 | 302 | $9,620.21 | $9,621.31 |
+$243.14 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:05am ET | $32.15 | 299 | $9,612.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $31.75 | 299 | $9,491.76 | $9,500.22 |
$-121.09 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $29.52 | 321 | $9,475.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $30.38 | 321 | $9,750.38 | $9,774.67 |
+$274.45 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $33.54 | 291 | $9,760.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $34.38 | 291 | $10,004.61 | $10,019.14 |
+$244.47 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $33.76 | 296 | $9,991.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $33.40 | 296 | $9,884.92 | $9,912.58 |
$-106.56 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.50 | 314 | $9,891.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 11:45am ET | $29.92 | 314 | $9,396.10 | $9,417.68 |
$-494.90 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.03 | 391 | $9,395.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $27.67 | 391 | $10,817.02 | $10,838.97 |
+$1,421.29 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.36 | 345 | $10,819.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.16 | 345 | $12,475.89 | $12,495.66 |
+$1,656.69 (+15.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.36 | 281 | $12,465.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:45am ET | $42.11 | 281 | $11,832.91 | $11,863.41 |
$-632.25 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.68 | 374 | $11,848.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 10:10am ET | $30.00 | 374 | $11,220.00 | $11,235.09 |
$-628.32 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.43 | 346 | $11,220.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 11:10am ET | $30.77 | 346 | $10,646.42 | $10,660.73 |
$-574.36 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.81 | 370 | $10,659.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 12:05pm ET | $27.33 | 370 | $10,112.10 | $10,113.13 |
$-547.60 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.78 | 351 | $10,101.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:15pm ET | $27.31 | 351 | $9,584.06 | $9,595.40 |
$-517.73 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.67 | 323 | $9,585.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.86 | 323 | $8,998.78 | $9,009.16 |
$-586.24 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.61 | 304 | $9,001.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.70 | 304 | $10,548.80 | $10,556.52 |
+$1,547.36 (+17.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.90 | 286 | $10,553.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:05am ET | $42.53 | 286 | $12,163.58 | $12,166.70 |
+$1,610.18 (+15.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
29d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,166.70
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,166.70
Total Return:
+21.67%