SOFI Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 55 trades in period
-21.32%
Last Year Return
$15,923.93
Current Value
27%
Win Rate
$20,238.99
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
36
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
15.0/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.7/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
37.5/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 35.8
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,908
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$20,238.99
Current Value
$15,923.93
Period P&L
$-4,315.06
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
55
Winners / Losers
15 /
40
Best Trade
+15.45%
Worst Trade
-5.62%
Avg Trade Return
-0.38%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,208,055.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,315.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,315.06
Gross Return
-21.32%
Net Return (after fees)
-21.32%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 55 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $20,238.99 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:10am ET | $28.16 | 718 | $20,218.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 2:00pm ET | $27.77 | 718 | $19,935.27 | $19,955.38 |
$-283.61 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 10:20am ET | $26.60 | 750 | $19,950.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 10:30am ET | $26.26 | 750 | $19,694.93 | $19,700.30 |
$-255.08 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2025 10:05am ET | $28.74 | 685 | $19,686.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 10:25am ET | $28.37 | 685 | $19,430.50 | $19,443.97 |
$-256.33 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 11:35am ET | $28.30 | 687 | $19,442.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 1:25pm ET | $28.00 | 687 | $19,232.57 | $19,234.50 |
$-209.47 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:10am ET | $26.81 | 717 | $19,219.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 12:20pm ET | $27.49 | 717 | $19,710.33 | $19,725.64 |
+$491.14 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 10:40am ET | $28.33 | 696 | $19,714.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 10:55am ET | $28.02 | 696 | $19,501.99 | $19,513.43 |
$-212.21 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 10:45am ET | $28.33 | 688 | $19,487.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 11:15am ET | $28.70 | 688 | $19,745.60 | $19,771.43 |
+$258.00 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 11:40am ET | $28.85 | 685 | $19,760.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 2:10pm ET | $28.53 | 685 | $19,543.05 | $19,553.53 |
$-217.90 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 11:00am ET | $28.22 | 692 | $19,528.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $29.47 | 692 | $20,393.24 | $20,418.53 |
+$865.00 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 2:25pm ET | $31.57 | 646 | $20,394.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $31.07 | 646 | $20,072.77 | $20,097.08 |
$-321.45 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 11:40am ET | $30.55 | 657 | $20,074.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 10:05am ET | $30.18 | 657 | $19,829.05 | $19,851.89 |
$-245.19 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:15am ET | $30.53 | 650 | $19,844.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 10:50am ET | $30.22 | 650 | $19,642.94 | $19,650.26 |
$-201.63 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 3:00pm ET | $30.16 | 651 | $19,637.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $29.24 | 651 | $19,035.24 | $19,048.28 |
$-601.98 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 1:10pm ET | $27.10 | 702 | $19,024.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 2:50pm ET | $27.83 | 702 | $19,533.15 | $19,557.23 |
+$508.95 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 12:30pm ET | $30.31 | 645 | $19,549.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 1:00pm ET | $30.56 | 645 | $19,711.20 | $19,718.54 |
+$161.31 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 1:40pm ET | $30.82 | 639 | $19,690.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $32.34 | 639 | $20,662.07 | $20,689.82 |
+$971.28 (+4.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:20am ET | $28.95 | 714 | $20,670.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 12:45pm ET | $28.62 | 714 | $20,431.47 | $20,450.99 |
$-238.83 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:55pm ET | $26.92 | 759 | $20,432.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 3:15pm ET | $26.63 | 759 | $20,212.17 | $20,230.88 |
$-220.11 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 10:15am ET | $28.36 | 713 | $20,217.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 10:55am ET | $28.01 | 713 | $19,971.13 | $19,984.90 |
$-245.98 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 2:00pm ET | $25.25 | 791 | $19,968.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $26.52 | 791 | $20,973.84 | $20,989.94 |
+$1,005.04 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:40am ET | $26.63 | 788 | $20,984.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 3:35pm ET | $27.31 | 788 | $21,517.76 | $21,523.26 |
+$533.32 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 10:25am ET | $27.36 | 786 | $21,501.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 2:55pm ET | $28.14 | 786 | $22,114.11 | $22,136.34 |
+$613.08 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:30am ET | $29.17 | 759 | $22,136.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 1:55pm ET | $29.64 | 759 | $22,492.97 | $22,493.07 |
+$356.73 (+1.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 12:25pm ET | $30.39 | 740 | $22,488.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 1:25pm ET | $30.04 | 740 | $22,225.90 | $22,230.30 |
$-262.77 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $29.70 | 748 | $22,215.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 1:25pm ET | $29.39 | 748 | $21,983.72 | $21,998.42 |
$-231.88 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:25am ET | $29.13 | 755 | $21,993.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $27.55 | 755 | $20,797.08 | $20,802.35 |
$-1,196.07 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:05am ET | $27.69 | 751 | $20,795.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 11:35am ET | $27.28 | 751 | $20,486.53 | $20,493.69 |
$-308.66 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 10:10am ET | $27.13 | 755 | $20,480.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $26.79 | 755 | $20,226.45 | $20,240.01 |
$-253.68 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 12:15pm ET | $27.08 | 747 | $20,225.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:05am ET | $26.78 | 747 | $20,004.66 | $20,019.65 |
$-220.36 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 1:15pm ET | $27.47 | 728 | $19,994.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 2:05pm ET | $27.16 | 728 | $19,768.84 | $19,793.97 |
$-225.68 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 11:40am ET | $26.65 | 742 | $19,774.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:05pm ET | $26.26 | 742 | $19,484.47 | $19,504.14 |
$-289.83 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:20am ET | $26.99 | 722 | $19,489.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 11:50am ET | $27.36 | 722 | $19,750.31 | $19,764.49 |
+$260.35 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 12:00pm ET | $27.50 | 718 | $19,741.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:10am ET | $27.14 | 718 | $19,486.52 | $19,509.60 |
$-254.89 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 11:30am ET | $27.14 | 718 | $19,482.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 1:35pm ET | $26.83 | 718 | $19,260.35 | $19,287.02 |
$-222.58 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $26.82 | 719 | $19,286.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $28.50 | 719 | $20,491.50 | $20,491.56 |
+$1,204.54 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $28.57 | 717 | $20,484.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $29.30 | 717 | $21,008.17 | $21,015.04 |
+$523.48 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:40pm ET | $27.05 | 776 | $20,988.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 12:35pm ET | $27.84 | 776 | $21,603.84 | $21,630.02 |
+$614.98 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 12:40pm ET | $27.84 | 776 | $21,604.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:10pm ET | $27.69 | 776 | $21,490.62 | $21,516.18 |
$-113.84 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:45pm ET | $26.95 | 798 | $21,502.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $26.23 | 798 | $20,931.54 | $20,945.61 |
$-570.57 (-2.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $27.23 | 769 | $20,939.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 11:15am ET | $26.93 | 769 | $20,711.40 | $20,717.06 |
$-228.55 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:05pm ET | $26.76 | 774 | $20,708.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $26.43 | 774 | $20,455.19 | $20,463.88 |
$-253.18 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $26.00 | 787 | $20,461.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $25.67 | 787 | $20,202.29 | $20,204.33 |
$-259.55 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $26.12 | 773 | $20,190.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:50pm ET | $25.86 | 773 | $19,985.92 | $19,999.48 |
$-204.85 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:10pm ET | $22.72 | 880 | $19,993.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 12:35pm ET | $22.47 | 880 | $19,769.20 | $19,775.08 |
$-224.40 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $21.01 | 941 | $19,768.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:05pm ET | $20.79 | 941 | $19,559.34 | $19,566.18 |
$-208.90 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $21.49 | 910 | $19,551.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $21.27 | 910 | $19,355.70 | $19,370.53 |
$-195.65 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $21.91 | 884 | $19,364.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $21.66 | 884 | $19,147.35 | $19,153.86 |
$-216.67 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $19.77 | 968 | $19,137.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $19.56 | 968 | $18,929.24 | $18,945.74 |
$-208.12 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.47 | 1,224 | $18,935.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.86 | 1,224 | $21,860.64 | $21,871.10 |
+$2,925.36 (+15.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $19.51 | 1,121 | $21,870.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $18.51 | 1,121 | $20,749.60 | $20,749.99 |
$-1,121.11 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.50 | 1,257 | $20,746.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:55pm ET | $15.68 | 1,257 | $19,703.48 | $19,706.68 |
$-1,043.31 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.1d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.31 | 1,138 | $19,693.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.43 | 1,138 | $18,703.03 | $18,716.62 |
$-990.06 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
39d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.94 | 988 | $18,712.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $17.88 | 988 | $17,660.50 | $17,664.40 |
$-1,052.22 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.55 | 952 | $17,659.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $17.61 | 952 | $16,767.20 | $16,771.90 |
$-892.50 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.29 | 970 | $16,770.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.42 | 970 | $15,922.55 | $15,923.93 |
$-847.97 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,923.93
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,923.93
Total Return:
+59.24%