SOLUSD Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 52 trades in period
-24.25%
Last Year Return
$10,550.10
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$13,856.25
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.6 oversold
20d Trend
-38.8%
5d Trend
-41.0%
EMA20 Dist
-37.6%
ATR%
13.7%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 27, 2026
8
Lifetime
Confidence: 72%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.4/35
Total Return
6.8/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality
11.7/100
× Confidence 0.72
= 8.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (72%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,213
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$13,856.25
Current Value
$10,550.10
Period P&L
$-3,360.48
Max Drawdown
-44.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
15 /
37
Best Trade
+5.34%
Worst Trade
-10.96%
Avg Trade Return
-0.51%
Avg Hold Time
14.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$1,317,398.45
Estimated Fees
$3,293.50
Gross P&L
$-3,360.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$-6,653.98
Gross Return
-24.25%
Net Return (after fees)
-48.02%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SOLUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $13,856.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 10:40am ET | $214.20 | 65 | $13,923.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $201.40 | 65 | $13,091.00 | $13,153.60 |
$-832.00 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:15am ET | $203.08 | 64 | $12,997.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 11:40am ET | $200.92 | 64 | $12,858.88 | $13,015.36 |
$-138.24 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 12:15pm ET | $199.10 | 65 | $12,941.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $209.73 | 65 | $13,632.45 | $13,706.31 |
+$690.95 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:10am ET | $210.80 | 65 | $13,702.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 1:00pm ET | $208.23 | 65 | $13,534.95 | $13,539.26 |
$-167.05 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 12:05pm ET | $220.74 | 61 | $13,465.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 1:50pm ET | $217.78 | 61 | $13,284.58 | $13,358.70 |
$-180.56 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 12:10pm ET | $228.63 | 58 | $13,260.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 11:50am ET | $234.90 | 58 | $13,624.20 | $13,722.36 |
+$363.66 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 11:55am ET | $235.00 | 58 | $13,630.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 1:00pm ET | $231.51 | 58 | $13,427.58 | $13,519.94 |
$-202.42 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 11:25am ET | $236.41 | 57 | $13,475.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $226.52 | 57 | $12,911.64 | $12,956.21 |
$-563.73 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $223.87 | 57 | $12,760.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 10:30am ET | $221.54 | 57 | $12,627.78 | $12,823.40 |
$-132.81 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 12:20pm ET | $198.70 | 64 | $12,716.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 1:55pm ET | $205.17 | 64 | $13,130.88 | $13,237.48 |
+$414.08 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:10am ET | $197.00 | 67 | $13,199.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 11:50am ET | $202.09 | 67 | $13,540.03 | $13,578.51 |
+$341.03 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 12:00pm ET | $184.42 | 73 | $13,462.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 12:50pm ET | $182.25 | 73 | $13,304.25 | $13,420.10 |
$-158.41 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $188.54 | 71 | $13,386.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 11:05am ET | $193.64 | 71 | $13,748.44 | $13,782.20 |
+$362.10 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 1:35pm ET | $193.41 | 71 | $13,732.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2025 2:45pm ET | $191.14 | 71 | $13,570.94 | $13,621.03 |
$-161.17 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 12:05pm ET | $201.44 | 67 | $13,496.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 10:40am ET | $198.98 | 67 | $13,331.66 | $13,456.21 |
$-164.82 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 11:05am ET | $190.01 | 70 | $13,300.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 12:05pm ET | $187.58 | 70 | $13,130.60 | $13,286.11 |
$-170.10 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:50am ET | $160.27 | 82 | $13,142.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $157.32 | 82 | $12,900.24 | $13,044.21 |
$-241.90 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 11:20am ET | $157.15 | 83 | $13,043.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 12:30pm ET | $161.24 | 83 | $13,382.92 | $13,383.68 |
+$339.47 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:25am ET | $143.40 | 93 | $13,336.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 12:40pm ET | $141.81 | 93 | $13,188.33 | $13,235.81 |
$-147.87 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:25am ET | $140.86 | 93 | $13,099.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 11:00am ET | $139.26 | 93 | $12,951.18 | $13,087.01 |
$-148.80 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:05am ET | $138.72 | 94 | $13,039.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:20am ET | $136.79 | 94 | $12,858.26 | $12,905.59 |
$-181.42 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 12:20pm ET | $130.30 | 99 | $12,899.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:00pm ET | $128.71 | 99 | $12,742.29 | $12,748.18 |
$-157.41 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 12:10pm ET | $136.88 | 93 | $12,729.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 2:05pm ET | $135.20 | 93 | $12,573.60 | $12,591.94 |
$-156.24 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 12:30pm ET | $139.24 | 90 | $12,531.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 1:15pm ET | $143.52 | 90 | $12,916.80 | $12,977.14 |
+$385.20 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:05am ET | $134.36 | 96 | $12,898.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:40am ET | $138.46 | 96 | $13,292.16 | $13,370.74 |
+$393.60 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $144.16 | 92 | $13,262.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:00am ET | $142.63 | 92 | $13,121.96 | $13,229.98 |
$-140.76 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $136.80 | 96 | $13,132.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:50am ET | $135.12 | 96 | $12,971.52 | $13,068.70 |
$-161.28 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $133.55 | 97 | $12,954.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 10:45am ET | $137.03 | 97 | $13,291.91 | $13,406.26 |
+$337.56 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 10:20am ET | $132.62 | 101 | $13,394.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:35am ET | $131.08 | 101 | $13,239.08 | $13,250.72 |
$-155.54 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $133.38 | 99 | $13,204.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:20am ET | $131.88 | 99 | $13,056.12 | $13,102.22 |
$-148.50 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 10:25am ET | $128.18 | 102 | $13,074.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 11:10am ET | $126.83 | 102 | $12,936.66 | $12,964.52 |
$-137.70 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 11:15am ET | $124.01 | 104 | $12,897.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $121.60 | 104 | $12,646.40 | $12,713.88 |
$-250.64 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 10:40am ET | $122.51 | 103 | $12,618.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:10am ET | $120.79 | 103 | $12,441.37 | $12,536.72 |
$-177.16 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 11:15am ET | $125.83 | 99 | $12,457.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 1:00pm ET | $124.48 | 99 | $12,323.52 | $12,403.07 |
$-133.65 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $130.28 | 95 | $12,376.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $134.68 | 95 | $12,794.60 | $12,821.07 |
+$418.00 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $135.87 | 94 | $12,771.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 12:20pm ET | $134.19 | 94 | $12,613.86 | $12,663.15 |
$-157.92 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $134.91 | 93 | $12,546.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 12:50pm ET | $138.37 | 93 | $12,868.41 | $12,984.93 |
+$321.78 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $138.86 | 93 | $12,913.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $137.44 | 93 | $12,781.92 | $12,852.87 |
$-132.06 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:20am ET | $141.27 | 90 | $12,714.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $142.86 | 90 | $12,857.40 | $12,995.97 |
+$143.10 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 3:00pm ET | $144.23 | 90 | $12,980.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $147.86 | 90 | $13,307.40 | $13,322.67 |
+$326.70 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:15am ET | $148.09 | 89 | $13,180.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $146.51 | 89 | $13,039.39 | $13,182.05 |
$-140.62 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:30pm ET | $144.25 | 91 | $13,126.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $128.44 | 91 | $11,688.04 | $11,743.34 |
$-1,438.71 (-11.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $130.81 | 89 | $11,642.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET | $129.37 | 89 | $11,513.93 | $11,615.18 |
$-128.16 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $127.86 | 90 | $11,507.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET | $123.49 | 90 | $11,114.10 | $11,221.88 |
$-393.30 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:25pm ET | $124.86 | 89 | $11,112.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:45pm ET | $123.61 | 89 | $11,001.29 | $11,110.63 |
$-111.25 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $124.84 | 88 | $10,985.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $123.55 | 88 | $10,872.40 | $10,997.11 |
$-113.52 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 2:00pm ET | $118.39 | 92 | $10,891.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $116.75 | 92 | $10,741.00 | $10,846.23 |
$-150.88 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $105.80 | 102 | $10,791.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $104.72 | 102 | $10,681.44 | $10,736.07 |
$-110.16 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:15am ET | $85.59 | 125 | $10,698.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET | $88.00 | 125 | $11,000.00 | $11,037.32 |
+$301.25 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $85.61 | 128 | $10,957.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $84.46 | 128 | $10,810.56 | $10,890.32 |
$-147.00 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $83.60 | 130 | $10,867.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 15, 2026 9:35pm ET | $85.86 | 130 | $11,161.46 | $11,184.17 |
+$293.85 (+2.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET | $88.37 | 127 | $11,184.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 6:40am ET | $83.36 | 127 | $10,550.10 | $10,550.10 |
$-688.40 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,550.10
Net Profit/Loss:
+$550.10
Total Return:
+5.50%