TMO Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 34 trades in period
-1.97%
Last Year Return
$12,185.51
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$12,430.24
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.9/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
1.9/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality
29.4/100
× Confidence 0.95
= 28.0
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
20,040
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
252 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$12,430.24
Current Value
$12,185.51
Period P&L
$-244.73
Max Drawdown
-9.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
14 /
20
Best Trade
+3.46%
Worst Trade
-5.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$826,586.41
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-244.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$-244.73
Gross Return
-1.97%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.97%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 252 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,430.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 11:20am ET | $467.68 | 26 | $12,159.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 12:45pm ET | $479.98 | 26 | $12,479.48 | $12,750.11 |
+$319.87 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $507.46 | 25 | $12,686.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 11:20am ET | $520.74 | 25 | $13,018.38 | $13,081.99 |
+$331.88 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 10:05am ET | $540.41 | 24 | $12,969.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 10:35am ET | $539.71 | 24 | $12,953.04 | $13,065.19 |
$-16.80 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 12:25pm ET | $544.86 | 23 | $12,531.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 12:55pm ET | $540.72 | 23 | $12,436.45 | $12,969.80 |
$-95.39 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 1:40pm ET | $528.27 | 24 | $12,678.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 2:10pm ET | $528.32 | 24 | $12,679.68 | $12,971.00 |
+$1.20 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 10:40am ET | $548.81 | 23 | $12,622.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 3:15pm ET | $543.31 | 23 | $12,496.13 | $12,844.61 |
$-126.39 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $566.79 | 22 | $12,469.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 3:15pm ET | $560.80 | 22 | $12,337.60 | $12,712.83 |
$-131.78 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 11:35am ET | $563.71 | 22 | $12,401.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 3:35pm ET | $557.90 | 22 | $12,273.80 | $12,585.12 |
$-127.71 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:35am ET | $566.00 | 22 | $12,452.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $558.04 | 22 | $12,276.88 | $12,410.00 |
$-175.12 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:30am ET | $566.63 | 21 | $11,899.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 11:00am ET | $562.53 | 21 | $11,813.13 | $12,323.90 |
$-86.10 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:45am ET | $565.44 | 21 | $11,874.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 12:15pm ET | $562.31 | 21 | $11,808.51 | $12,258.17 |
$-65.73 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 11:15am ET | $573.06 | 21 | $12,034.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 1:30pm ET | $566.66 | 21 | $11,899.86 | $12,123.77 |
$-134.40 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 11:45am ET | $582.82 | 20 | $11,656.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 12:15pm ET | $586.56 | 20 | $11,731.20 | $12,198.57 |
+$74.80 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 10:10am ET | $595.27 | 20 | $11,905.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 2:35pm ET | $588.81 | 20 | $11,776.10 | $12,069.27 |
$-129.30 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:45am ET | $582.78 | 20 | $11,655.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $575.69 | 20 | $11,513.80 | $11,927.47 |
$-141.80 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:35pm ET | $570.57 | 20 | $11,411.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 1:05pm ET | $571.68 | 20 | $11,433.60 | $11,949.77 |
+$22.30 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:35am ET | $578.67 | 20 | $11,573.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:05pm ET | $582.96 | 20 | $11,659.20 | $12,035.56 |
+$85.79 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 10:25am ET | $595.86 | 20 | $11,917.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:40am ET | $589.60 | 20 | $11,792.00 | $11,910.46 |
$-125.10 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:15pm ET | $571.96 | 20 | $11,439.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 2:45pm ET | $577.11 | 20 | $11,542.10 | $12,013.44 |
+$102.98 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 10:20am ET | $566.17 | 21 | $11,889.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 10:50am ET | $574.23 | 21 | $12,058.83 | $12,182.70 |
+$169.26 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 10:55am ET | $572.95 | 21 | $12,031.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 11:25am ET | $578.04 | 21 | $12,138.74 | $12,289.48 |
+$106.78 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 11:45am ET | $579.19 | 21 | $12,162.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 12:15pm ET | $576.85 | 21 | $12,113.75 | $12,240.23 |
$-49.25 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $609.11 | 20 | $12,182.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $627.48 | 20 | $12,549.50 | $12,607.53 |
+$367.30 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $626.99 | 20 | $12,539.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $620.26 | 20 | $12,405.20 | $12,472.93 |
$-134.60 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:10pm ET | $617.12 | 20 | $12,342.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:35am ET | $610.75 | 20 | $12,215.00 | $12,345.63 |
$-127.30 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:35pm ET | $622.31 | 19 | $11,823.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $627.88 | 19 | $11,929.72 | $12,451.56 |
+$105.93 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $615.57 | 20 | $12,311.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $629.66 | 20 | $12,593.20 | $12,733.36 |
+$281.80 (+2.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $629.98 | 20 | $12,599.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $639.58 | 20 | $12,791.60 | $12,925.36 |
+$192.00 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 3:10pm ET | $633.39 | 20 | $12,667.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $626.81 | 20 | $12,536.20 | $12,793.76 |
$-131.60 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $594.55 | 21 | $12,485.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:10pm ET | $588.54 | 21 | $12,359.34 | $12,667.55 |
$-126.21 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:05pm ET | $583.06 | 21 | $12,244.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:25pm ET | $575.22 | 21 | $12,079.62 | $12,502.91 |
$-164.64 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 2:45pm ET | $546.01 | 22 | $12,012.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $541.09 | 22 | $11,903.87 | $12,394.56 |
$-108.35 (-0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $485.74 | 25 | $12,143.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $461.27 | 25 | $11,531.75 | $11,782.81 |
$-611.75 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
31.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $582.04 | 20 | $11,640.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $602.18 | 20 | $12,043.60 | $12,185.51 |
+$402.70 (+3.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
47d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,185.51
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,185.51
Total Return:
+21.86%