TQQQ Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 57 trades in period
+6.86%
Last Year Return
$14,092.05
Current Value
42%
Win Rate
$13,187.86
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
23
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.8/35
Total Return
13.5/25
Win Rate
1.5/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality
26.0/100
× Confidence 0.89
= 23.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,890
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$13,187.86
Current Value
$14,092.05
Period P&L
$904.19
Max Drawdown
-37.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
57
Winners / Losers
24 /
33
Best Trade
+24.20%
Worst Trade
-8.04%
Avg Trade Return
+0.24%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,564,329.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$904.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$904.19
Gross Return
+6.86%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.86%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 57 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $13,187.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:15am ET | $49.89 | 264 | $13,169.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 1:55pm ET | $49.33 | 264 | $13,023.70 | $13,041.92 |
$-145.94 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 3:25pm ET | $51.46 | 253 | $13,019.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 3:55pm ET | $52.45 | 253 | $13,268.59 | $13,291.02 |
+$249.10 (+1.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 2:30pm ET | $53.91 | 246 | $13,260.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 11:00am ET | $53.27 | 246 | $13,103.81 | $13,134.19 |
$-156.83 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:05am ET | $53.69 | 244 | $13,100.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 10:35am ET | $53.70 | 244 | $13,103.04 | $13,136.26 |
+$2.07 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 12:30pm ET | $51.59 | 254 | $13,103.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $49.65 | 254 | $12,611.10 | $12,643.50 |
$-492.76 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:20am ET | $50.18 | 251 | $12,593.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 12:40pm ET | $51.55 | 251 | $12,939.05 | $12,988.63 |
+$345.13 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:05am ET | $52.64 | 246 | $12,948.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 11:35am ET | $52.06 | 246 | $12,806.22 | $12,846.64 |
$-141.99 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 10:40am ET | $53.11 | 241 | $12,799.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 11:25am ET | $52.30 | 241 | $12,604.30 | $12,651.43 |
$-195.21 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 12:00pm ET | $53.32 | 237 | $12,636.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $55.29 | 237 | $13,104.54 | $13,119.13 |
+$467.70 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 1:35pm ET | $55.57 | 236 | $13,114.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 10:00am ET | $57.59 | 236 | $13,590.06 | $13,594.67 |
+$475.54 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 10:40am ET | $57.74 | 235 | $13,567.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 11:10am ET | $58.75 | 235 | $13,806.84 | $13,833.78 |
+$239.11 (+1.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 12:45pm ET | $59.30 | 233 | $13,817.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 1:15pm ET | $60.18 | 233 | $14,020.78 | $14,037.07 |
+$203.29 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:55am ET | $56.48 | 248 | $14,007.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $54.49 | 248 | $13,513.52 | $13,543.55 |
$-493.52 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 3:55pm ET | $52.87 | 256 | $13,534.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $55.87 | 256 | $14,301.47 | $14,310.94 |
+$767.39 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 2:25pm ET | $56.17 | 254 | $14,267.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $55.58 | 254 | $14,116.05 | $14,159.81 |
$-151.13 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 1:50pm ET | $56.07 | 252 | $14,130.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:15am ET | $55.50 | 252 | $13,986.63 | $14,016.09 |
$-143.72 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:25am ET | $51.78 | 270 | $13,980.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 11:20am ET | $53.10 | 270 | $14,337.00 | $14,372.49 |
+$356.40 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:10am ET | $51.31 | 280 | $14,365.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:50am ET | $50.58 | 280 | $14,162.40 | $14,169.49 |
$-203.00 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET | $47.82 | 296 | $14,153.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:00pm ET | $47.23 | 296 | $13,980.08 | $13,996.33 |
$-173.16 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:30am ET | $50.08 | 279 | $13,970.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 3:50pm ET | $51.38 | 279 | $14,335.02 | $14,360.43 |
+$364.10 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:15am ET | $53.44 | 268 | $14,322.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 11:45am ET | $54.11 | 268 | $14,502.44 | $14,540.77 |
+$180.34 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 12:55pm ET | $54.59 | 266 | $14,520.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $53.72 | 266 | $14,288.19 | $14,308.02 |
$-232.75 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 10:50am ET | $54.11 | 264 | $14,285.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $55.53 | 264 | $14,659.92 | $14,682.93 |
+$374.91 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:45am ET | $55.63 | 263 | $14,630.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 11:10am ET | $54.94 | 263 | $14,449.22 | $14,501.46 |
$-181.47 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $55.14 | 262 | $14,446.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 10:30am ET | $55.32 | 262 | $14,493.24 | $14,548.02 |
+$46.56 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:05am ET | $56.84 | 255 | $14,493.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 11:05am ET | $56.20 | 255 | $14,331.00 | $14,385.28 |
$-162.74 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:40am ET | $55.88 | 257 | $14,359.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:35am ET | $55.26 | 257 | $14,201.82 | $14,227.22 |
$-158.06 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET | $56.15 | 253 | $14,205.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $54.41 | 253 | $13,764.52 | $13,786.19 |
$-441.03 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:40pm ET | $55.87 | 246 | $13,744.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $54.63 | 246 | $13,438.98 | $13,481.15 |
$-305.04 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 3:35pm ET | $52.63 | 256 | $13,472.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $52.00 | 256 | $13,312.00 | $13,320.97 |
$-160.18 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 10:30am ET | $52.18 | 255 | $13,307.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:05pm ET | $51.53 | 255 | $13,140.15 | $13,154.10 |
$-166.87 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 1:30pm ET | $54.80 | 240 | $13,152.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:55am ET | $55.54 | 240 | $13,329.00 | $13,331.10 |
+$177.00 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:45am ET | $54.29 | 245 | $13,301.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:05pm ET | $53.70 | 245 | $13,156.50 | $13,186.31 |
$-144.79 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $54.94 | 240 | $13,184.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:15pm ET | $55.68 | 240 | $13,363.20 | $13,365.11 |
+$178.80 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $55.68 | 240 | $13,362.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:35pm ET | $55.09 | 240 | $13,221.94 | $13,225.05 |
$-140.06 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $55.26 | 239 | $13,207.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $55.67 | 239 | $13,305.27 | $13,323.18 |
+$98.13 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $55.89 | 238 | $13,301.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $55.18 | 238 | $13,131.65 | $13,153.01 |
$-170.17 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $52.39 | 251 | $13,149.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $51.80 | 251 | $13,002.25 | $13,005.37 |
$-147.64 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:25am ET | $52.17 | 249 | $12,991.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $51.65 | 249 | $12,860.85 | $12,874.74 |
$-130.63 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $54.25 | 237 | $12,856.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:30am ET | $55.18 | 237 | $13,077.66 | $13,096.15 |
+$221.41 (+1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:50am ET | $55.34 | 236 | $13,060.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:20am ET | $56.70 | 236 | $13,382.29 | $13,417.70 |
+$321.55 (+2.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $56.65 | 236 | $13,368.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:55am ET | $56.84 | 236 | $13,413.06 | $13,462.54 |
+$44.84 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $54.97 | 244 | $13,413.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $53.58 | 244 | $13,073.52 | $13,122.16 |
$-340.38 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $49.79 | 263 | $13,094.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $51.15 | 263 | $13,453.37 | $13,480.76 |
+$358.60 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $51.17 | 263 | $13,457.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $52.05 | 263 | $13,688.34 | $13,711.86 |
+$231.10 (+1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:30am ET | $49.10 | 279 | $13,698.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $48.31 | 279 | $13,478.49 | $13,491.65 |
$-220.21 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.35 | 284 | $13,448.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.75 | 284 | $12,709.00 | $12,751.83 |
$-739.82 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.06 | 282 | $12,706.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $42.71 | 282 | $12,043.80 | $12,088.71 |
$-663.12 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.25 | 307 | $12,049.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.75 | 307 | $14,966.25 | $15,005.21 |
+$2,916.50 (+24.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.87 | 259 | $14,988.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $66.66 | 259 | $17,264.94 | $17,281.82 |
+$2,276.61 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.67 | 214 | $17,263.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:40pm ET | $76.50 | 214 | $16,369.93 | $16,388.37 |
$-893.45 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.88 | 197 | $16,327.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $78.71 | 197 | $15,505.87 | $15,566.88 |
$-821.49 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.02 | 199 | $15,525.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $71.75 | 199 | $14,277.26 | $14,318.16 |
$-1,248.72 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.74 | 191 | $14,275.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $70.93 | 191 | $13,548.58 | $13,591.40 |
$-726.76 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.11 | 193 | $13,530.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:40am ET | $66.56 | 193 | $12,845.12 | $12,906.25 |
$-685.15 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 56 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.56 | 196 | $12,849.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.55 | 196 | $14,807.80 | $14,864.29 |
+$1,958.04 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 57 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.60 | 196 | $14,817.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $71.66 | 196 | $14,045.36 | $14,092.05 |
$-772.24 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,092.05
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,092.05
Total Return:
+40.92%