XLK Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 35 trades in period
+15.06%
Last Year Return
$13,372.72
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$11,622.67
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
26
Lifetime
Confidence: 72%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.5/35
Total Return
12.8/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality
36.3/100
× Confidence 0.72
= 26.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (72%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,774
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,622.67
Current Value
$13,372.72
Period P&L
$1,750.05
Max Drawdown
-14.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
21 /
14
Best Trade
+15.08%
Worst Trade
-5.18%
Avg Trade Return
+0.45%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$857,019.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,750.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,750.05
Gross Return
+15.06%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.06%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,622.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:15am ET | $138.52 | 83 | $11,496.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 10:45am ET | $138.44 | 83 | $11,490.52 | $11,616.45 |
$-6.22 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 11:00am ET | $140.97 | 82 | $11,559.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 11:30am ET | $141.44 | 82 | $11,597.67 | $11,654.58 |
+$38.13 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 11:35am ET | $141.59 | 82 | $11,610.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 12:05pm ET | $142.86 | 82 | $11,714.52 | $11,758.72 |
+$104.14 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 11:45am ET | $144.75 | 81 | $11,724.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 12:15pm ET | $145.12 | 81 | $11,754.72 | $11,789.10 |
+$30.38 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 11:45am ET | $141.31 | 83 | $11,728.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 12:15pm ET | $142.15 | 83 | $11,798.04 | $11,858.82 |
+$69.72 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 3:05pm ET | $142.72 | 83 | $11,845.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 3:35pm ET | $144.33 | 83 | $11,979.39 | $11,992.24 |
+$133.42 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 11:45am ET | $144.56 | 82 | $11,853.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:25am ET | $143.09 | 82 | $11,733.38 | $11,872.11 |
$-120.13 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 11:50am ET | $144.42 | 82 | $11,842.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 12:20pm ET | $146.99 | 82 | $12,052.77 | $12,082.44 |
+$210.33 (+1.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 3:35pm ET | $149.39 | 80 | $11,950.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 10:05am ET | $152.61 | 80 | $12,208.40 | $12,340.04 |
+$257.60 (+2.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 12:35pm ET | $148.22 | 83 | $12,301.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $145.46 | 83 | $12,072.77 | $12,110.96 |
$-229.08 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 3:55pm ET | $144.08 | 84 | $12,102.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 2:50pm ET | $147.74 | 84 | $12,410.16 | $12,418.40 |
+$307.44 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 3:45pm ET | $148.01 | 83 | $12,284.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:05am ET | $146.49 | 83 | $12,158.67 | $12,292.24 |
$-126.16 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $143.82 | 85 | $12,224.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 11:05am ET | $142.60 | 85 | $12,121.00 | $12,188.96 |
$-103.28 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 12:30pm ET | $137.18 | 88 | $12,071.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 1:00pm ET | $140.18 | 88 | $12,335.84 | $12,452.96 |
+$264.00 (+2.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 1:05pm ET | $140.21 | 88 | $12,338.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $137.18 | 88 | $12,071.84 | $12,186.32 |
$-266.64 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 12:05pm ET | $139.27 | 87 | $12,116.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 12:35pm ET | $142.26 | 87 | $12,376.62 | $12,446.89 |
+$260.57 (+2.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 12:40pm ET | $142.40 | 87 | $12,388.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:05am ET | $142.47 | 87 | $12,394.46 | $12,452.54 |
+$5.65 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 11:40am ET | $143.03 | 87 | $12,443.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 12:10pm ET | $144.61 | 87 | $12,580.64 | $12,590.01 |
+$137.47 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:30am ET | $144.45 | 87 | $12,567.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:00am ET | $144.85 | 87 | $12,601.52 | $12,624.38 |
+$34.37 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 11:55am ET | $145.74 | 86 | $12,533.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 12:25pm ET | $146.22 | 86 | $12,574.92 | $12,666.09 |
+$41.71 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET | $148.28 | 85 | $12,603.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $145.70 | 85 | $12,384.50 | $12,447.21 |
$-218.88 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:35pm ET | $147.61 | 84 | $12,399.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $145.89 | 84 | $12,254.76 | $12,302.73 |
$-144.48 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 2:25pm ET | $145.72 | 84 | $12,240.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 11:50am ET | $146.73 | 84 | $12,325.32 | $12,387.57 |
+$84.84 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $146.61 | 84 | $12,315.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $147.03 | 84 | $12,350.10 | $12,422.43 |
+$34.86 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $145.76 | 85 | $12,389.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:35am ET | $146.53 | 85 | $12,455.05 | $12,488.31 |
+$65.88 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:50pm ET | $146.95 | 84 | $12,343.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 1:20pm ET | $146.37 | 84 | $12,295.08 | $12,440.01 |
$-48.30 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:35am ET | $144.01 | 86 | $12,384.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:00pm ET | $142.52 | 86 | $12,256.72 | $12,311.87 |
$-128.14 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $145.32 | 84 | $12,206.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:50am ET | $146.33 | 84 | $12,291.72 | $12,396.71 |
+$84.84 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:15am ET | $148.53 | 83 | $12,327.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:45am ET | $148.75 | 83 | $12,346.25 | $12,414.97 |
+$18.26 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $145.82 | 85 | $12,394.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $142.64 | 85 | $12,124.40 | $12,144.67 |
$-270.30 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $140.49 | 86 | $12,082.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:00pm ET | $143.60 | 86 | $12,349.60 | $12,411.70 |
+$267.03 (+2.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $143.68 | 86 | $12,356.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $143.57 | 86 | $12,346.59 | $12,401.81 |
$-9.89 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 12:20pm ET | $140.69 | 88 | $12,380.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $139.14 | 88 | $12,244.32 | $12,265.41 |
$-136.40 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.16 | 85 | $12,169.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $164.75 | 85 | $14,003.75 | $14,100.14 |
+$1,834.73 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
27d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.95 | 74 | $14,056.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $180.12 | 74 | $13,328.88 | $13,372.72 |
$-727.42 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,372.72
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,372.72
Total Return:
+33.73%