XRPUSD Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 46 trades in period
-19.90%
Last Year Return
$21,598.31
Current Value
30%
Win Rate
$26,825.89
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Jun 26, 2026
32
Lifetime
Confidence: 72%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
19.6/35
Total Return
17.2/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality
44.7/100
× Confidence 0.72
= 32.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (72%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,166
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$26,825.89
Current Value
$21,598.31
Period P&L
$-5,338.49
Max Drawdown
-20.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
14 /
32
Best Trade
+4.04%
Worst Trade
-7.48%
Avg Trade Return
-0.44%
Avg Hold Time
13h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$2,238,267.48
Estimated Fees
$5,595.67
Gross P&L
$-5,338.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-10,934.16
Gross Return
-19.90%
Net Return (after fees)
-40.76%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $26,825.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:10am ET | $2.91 | 9,218 | $26,823.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 1:00pm ET | $2.87 | 9,218 | $26,494.38 | $26,496.81 |
$-329.08 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 12:05pm ET | $3.01 | 8,795 | $26,494.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 3:40pm ET | $3.09 | 8,795 | $27,211.73 | $27,213.60 |
+$716.79 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 10:50am ET | $3.05 | 8,922 | $27,211.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $3.02 | 8,922 | $26,900.72 | $26,903.11 |
$-310.49 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 10:05am ET | $3.02 | 8,902 | $26,901.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 10:50am ET | $2.99 | 8,902 | $26,631.22 | $26,633.11 |
$-270.00 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $2.89 | 9,219 | $26,630.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $2.82 | 9,219 | $25,960.70 | $25,963.44 |
$-669.67 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 3:40pm ET | $2.63 | 9,853 | $25,961.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $2.44 | 9,853 | $24,033.44 | $24,035.21 |
$-1,928.23 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:15am ET | $2.46 | 9,787 | $24,034.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 1:10pm ET | $2.52 | 9,787 | $24,700.43 | $24,700.73 |
+$665.52 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 12:00pm ET | $2.32 | 10,635 | $24,700.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 12:30pm ET | $2.29 | 10,635 | $24,381.80 | $24,382.42 |
$-318.31 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 11:05am ET | $2.48 | 9,823 | $24,381.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 12:00pm ET | $2.46 | 9,823 | $24,129.22 | $24,129.97 |
$-252.45 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $2.45 | 9,869 | $24,129.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 11:20am ET | $2.52 | 9,869 | $24,837.31 | $24,837.58 |
+$707.61 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 11:05am ET | $2.65 | 9,356 | $24,836.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 10:40am ET | $2.62 | 9,356 | $24,551.08 | $24,552.22 |
$-285.36 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 11:05am ET | $2.53 | 9,704 | $24,552.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 12:55pm ET | $2.49 | 9,704 | $24,208.57 | $24,208.70 |
$-343.52 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:15am ET | $2.32 | 10,434 | $24,207.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 10:45am ET | $2.29 | 10,434 | $23,918.90 | $23,919.68 |
$-289.02 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:50am ET | $2.28 | 10,469 | $23,919.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 3:10pm ET | $2.34 | 10,469 | $24,538.92 | $24,538.92 |
+$619.24 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 11:20am ET | $2.23 | 10,996 | $24,538.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 12:20pm ET | $2.29 | 10,996 | $25,228.12 | $25,228.37 |
+$689.45 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:30am ET | $2.33 | 10,823 | $25,227.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 12:45pm ET | $2.30 | 10,823 | $24,942.69 | $24,943.08 |
$-285.29 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:25am ET | $2.21 | 11,265 | $24,941.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $2.14 | 11,265 | $24,122.87 | $24,124.11 |
$-818.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:05am ET | $2.14 | 11,248 | $24,122.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:20am ET | $2.12 | 11,248 | $23,836.65 | $23,837.96 |
$-286.15 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 12:15pm ET | $1.98 | 12,029 | $23,836.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:00pm ET | $1.96 | 12,029 | $23,564.57 | $23,565.86 |
$-272.10 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 11:40am ET | $2.11 | 11,147 | $23,564.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:25pm ET | $2.17 | 11,147 | $24,157.78 | $24,158.88 |
+$593.02 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:20am ET | $2.19 | 11,008 | $24,157.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 10:20am ET | $2.26 | 11,008 | $24,835.15 | $24,836.97 |
+$678.09 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:25am ET | $2.26 | 10,981 | $24,835.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 11:05am ET | $2.23 | 10,981 | $24,529.36 | $24,530.60 |
$-306.37 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $2.11 | 11,650 | $24,529.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:45am ET | $2.16 | 11,650 | $25,154.68 | $25,156.20 |
+$625.60 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $2.16 | 11,662 | $25,156.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 12:00pm ET | $2.13 | 11,662 | $24,871.55 | $24,871.65 |
$-284.55 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $2.09 | 11,884 | $24,870.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 11:05am ET | $2.05 | 11,884 | $24,409.02 | $24,409.84 |
$-461.81 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $2.07 | 11,783 | $24,408.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 11:00am ET | $2.13 | 11,783 | $25,086.36 | $25,087.72 |
+$677.88 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:40pm ET | $2.02 | 12,407 | $25,086.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:50am ET | $1.99 | 12,407 | $24,724.67 | $24,725.44 |
$-362.28 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $1.98 | 12,471 | $24,723.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $1.95 | 12,471 | $24,318.45 | $24,320.13 |
$-405.31 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 10:35am ET | $1.93 | 12,595 | $24,319.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 11:10am ET | $1.91 | 12,595 | $24,065.27 | $24,065.71 |
$-254.42 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:30am ET | $1.90 | 12,670 | $24,065.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 12:30pm ET | $1.88 | 12,670 | $23,791.73 | $23,792.04 |
$-273.67 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 12:30pm ET | $1.88 | 12,627 | $23,790.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 3:50pm ET | $1.87 | 12,627 | $23,550.62 | $23,552.13 |
$-239.91 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:10am ET | $1.93 | 12,210 | $23,550.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $1.98 | 12,210 | $24,163.71 | $24,165.32 |
+$613.19 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $2.16 | 11,185 | $24,165.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:10pm ET | $2.22 | 11,185 | $24,775.89 | $24,776.02 |
+$610.70 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $2.11 | 11,755 | $24,774.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 12:55pm ET | $2.16 | 11,755 | $25,409.26 | $25,410.44 |
+$634.42 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $2.12 | 11,992 | $25,410.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 12:25pm ET | $2.10 | 11,992 | $25,143.63 | $25,143.86 |
$-266.58 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:15am ET | $2.08 | 12,066 | $25,141.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 12:30pm ET | $2.06 | 12,066 | $24,848.72 | $24,850.66 |
$-293.20 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $2.08 | 11,973 | $24,849.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $1.92 | 11,973 | $22,991.75 | $22,992.45 |
$-1,858.21 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $1.95 | 11,771 | $22,992.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:20am ET | $1.93 | 11,771 | $22,747.46 | $22,747.61 |
$-244.84 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $1.92 | 11,850 | $22,746.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $1.92 | 11,850 | $22,744.42 | $22,745.95 |
$-1.66 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $1.90 | 11,948 | $22,744.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $1.88 | 11,948 | $22,507.64 | $22,509.38 |
$-236.57 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:35pm ET | $1.62 | 13,853 | $22,508.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:45pm ET | $1.61 | 13,853 | $22,281.17 | $22,282.19 |
$-227.19 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $1.50 | 14,819 | $22,281.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $1.54 | 14,819 | $22,849.27 | $22,849.61 |
+$567.42 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $1.44 | 15,815 | $22,849.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $1.40 | 15,815 | $22,128.35 | $22,128.53 |
$-721.08 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1.43 | 15,524 | $22,127.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $1.41 | 15,524 | $21,878.75 | $21,879.29 |
$-249.24 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $1.41 | 15,568 | $21,879.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 15, 2026 9:35pm ET | $1.46 | 15,568 | $22,763.69 | $22,763.71 |
+$884.42 (+4.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET | $1.41 | 16,103 | $22,763.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1.34 | 16,103 | $21,598.31 | $21,598.31 |
$-1,276.31 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$21,598.31
Net Profit/Loss:
+$11,598.31
Total Return:
+115.98%