Compendium › Surge › CRWD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
CRWD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 4 trades in period

+18.96%
Last 3 Months Return
$17,268.15
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$14,516.06
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:22:19

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.8 oversold
20d Trend
-20.5%
5d Trend
-15.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.5%
ATR%
4.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.5/35
Total Return
15.5/25
Win Rate
0.9/15
Profit Factor
2.4/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 31.7/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 30.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,516.06
Current Value
$17,268.15
Period P&L
$2,752.09
Max Drawdown
-34.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.48

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+15.30%
Worst Trade
-5.45%
Avg Trade Return
+4.93%
Avg Hold Time
12.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$125,869.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,752.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,752.09
Gross Return
+18.96%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.96%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CRWD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $14,516.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $180.28 80 $14,422.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 10:30am ET $207.87 80 $16,629.60 $16,723.26 +$2,207.20
(+15.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $194.65 85 $16,545.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET $184.04 85 $15,643.40 $15,821.41 $-901.85
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $208.20 75 $15,615.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:35am ET $197.40 75 $14,804.63 $15,010.95 $-810.46
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $208.00 72 $14,976.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:35am ET $239.35 72 $17,233.20 $17,268.15 +$2,257.20
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,268.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,268.15
Total Return: +72.68%
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