Compendium › Surge › DOGEUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DOGEUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+12.25%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,362.82
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,962.38
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:04:52

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
21.8 oversold
20d Trend
-37.1%
5d Trend
-36.5%
EMA20 Dist
-35.0%
ATR%
12.1%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.3/35
Total Return
11.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 18.8/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 18.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,792
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,962.38
Current Value
$12,362.82
Period P&L
$1,342.66
Max Drawdown
-36.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.46

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+15.04%
Worst Trade
-3.28%
Avg Trade Return
+3.29%
Avg Hold Time
9.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$89,040.45
Estimated Fees
$222.60
Gross P&L
$1,342.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,120.06
Gross Return
+12.25%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.22%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOGEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,962.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:05am ET $0.0975 112,434 $10,962.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:15pm ET $0.1000 112,434 $11,240.03 $11,240.09 +$277.71
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:40am ET $0.0954 117,836 $11,240.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $0.0923 117,836 $10,870.94 $10,871.03 $-369.06
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:20pm ET $0.0938 115,910 $10,870.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET $0.0927 115,910 $10,746.65 $10,746.72 $-124.31
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $0.0928 115,805 $10,746.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 5:15am ET $0.1068 115,805 $12,362.82 $12,362.82 +$1,558.32
(+15.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
36.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,362.82
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,362.82
Total Return: +23.63%
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