Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:11:16

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.1/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 29.5/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 28.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$19,597.46
Current Value
$16,248.27
Period P&L
$-3,349.19
Max Drawdown
-27.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
1 / 6
Best Trade
+15.05%
Worst Trade
-5.48%
Avg Trade Return
-2.40%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$230,381.32
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,349.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,349.19
Gross Return
-17.09%
Net Return (after fees)
-17.09%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $19,597.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $117.10 167 $19,554.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $110.75 167 $18,495.58 $18,538.18 $-1,059.28
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $116.22 159 $18,479.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 11:45am ET $109.86 159 $17,466.95 $17,525.35 $-1,012.83
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $105.43 166 $17,500.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 11:20am ET $100.01 166 $16,601.66 $16,626.46 $-898.89
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $96.98 171 $16,584.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $91.96 171 $15,725.16 $15,767.44 $-859.02
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $101.05 156 $15,763.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 10:20am ET $95.69 156 $14,927.62 $14,931.26 $-836.18
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $117.44 127 $14,914.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:45am ET $111.14 127 $14,115.41 $14,131.79 $-799.47
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $109.90 128 $14,067.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:55am ET $126.43 128 $16,183.68 $16,248.27 +$2,116.48
(+15.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,248.27
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,248.27
Total Return: +62.48%
Back to Surge