Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:08

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
14.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 28.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 27.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,989.31
Current Value
$15,269.68
Period P&L
$4,280.36
Max Drawdown
-25.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.69

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
3 / 2
Best Trade
+17.68%
Worst Trade
-5.87%
Avg Trade Return
+7.34%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$120,087.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,280.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,280.36
Gross Return
+38.95%
Net Return (after fees)
+38.95%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,989.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $12.78 859 $10,978.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 12:15pm ET $12.10 859 $10,398.19 $10,409.48 $-579.83
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $11.33 918 $10,400.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 1:25pm ET $13.04 918 $11,974.39 $11,982.94 +$1,573.45
(+15.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET $10.05 1,192 $11,979.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET $9.46 1,192 $11,276.32 $11,279.66 $-703.28
(-5.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $10.24 1,101 $11,274.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET $12.05 1,101 $13,267.05 $13,272.47 +$1,992.81
(+17.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $11.47 1,157 $13,270.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 2:25pm ET $13.20 1,157 $15,268.00 $15,269.68 +$1,997.21
(+15.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,269.68
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,269.68
Total Return: +52.70%
Back to Surge