Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-25 18:40:29

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
12
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.8
Active
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 25, 2026

14
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.4/35
Total Return
8.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.0/10
Raw Quality 14.3/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 13.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,018.19
Current Value
$10,989.31
Period P&L
$2,971.12
Max Drawdown
-25.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.65

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
3 / 2
Best Trade
+16.42%
Worst Trade
-6.71%
Avg Trade Return
+7.08%
Avg Hold Time
5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$86,314.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,971.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,971.12
Gross Return
+37.05%
Net Return (after fees)
+37.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,018.19 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $8.57 935 $8,017.62
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $8.00 935 $7,480.00 $7,480.57 $-537.62
(-6.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $9.40 795 $7,473.00
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:50am ET $10.82 795 $8,605.87 $8,613.45 +$1,132.88
(+15.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET $11.85 726 $8,603.10
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET $11.18 726 $8,116.61 $8,126.96 $-486.49
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $11.11 731 $8,125.06
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:35am ET $12.94 731 $9,459.36 $9,461.25 +$1,334.29
(+16.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $12.86 735 $9,452.84
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $14.94 735 $10,980.90 $10,989.31 +$1,528.06
(+16.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,989.31
Net Profit/Loss: +$989.31
Total Return: +9.89%
Back to Surge