Compendium › Surge › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 8 trades in period

-8.96%
Last 3 Months Return
$38,597.82
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$42,395.61
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:38:31

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

69
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
20.4/25
Win Rate
2.4/15
Profit Factor
4.7/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 69.4/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 69.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$42,395.61
Current Value
$38,597.82
Period P&L
$-3,797.80
Max Drawdown
-21.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
2 / 6
Best Trade
+16.04%
Worst Trade
-8.56%
Avg Trade Return
-0.57%
Avg Hold Time
7.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$541,753.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,797.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,797.80
Gross Return
-8.96%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.96%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $42,395.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,055.02 39 $41,145.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $992.80 39 $38,719.20 $39,325.53 $-2,426.58
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $1,003.49 39 $39,136.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $917.57 39 $35,785.23 $35,974.46 $-3,351.07
(-8.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $1,012.41 35 $35,434.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $961.78 35 $33,662.30 $34,202.41 $-1,772.05
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $977.69 34 $33,241.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:20am ET $921.45 34 $31,329.13 $32,290.11 $-1,912.30
(-5.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $931.08 34 $31,656.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:10am ET $880.38 34 $29,932.84 $30,566.40 $-1,723.72
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $917.58 33 $30,279.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $871.53 33 $28,760.65 $29,047.08 $-1,519.32
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $861.74 33 $28,437.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $1,000.00 33 $33,000.00 $33,609.66 +$4,562.58
(+16.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $946.35 35 $33,122.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 2:50pm ET $1,088.87 35 $38,110.41 $38,597.82 +$4,988.16
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
28.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $38,597.82
Net Profit/Loss: +$28,597.82
Total Return: +285.98%
Back to Surge