Compendium › Surge › ORCL
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ORCL
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 5 trades in period

-24.58%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,649.18
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$15,446.63
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:44:07

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.5/35
Total Return
10.3/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 18.7/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 17.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-15.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,446.63
Current Value
$11,649.18
Period P&L
$-3,797.45
Max Drawdown
-23.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-10.21

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
0 / 5
Best Trade
-5.04%
Worst Trade
-6.36%
Avg Trade Return
-5.52%
Avg Hold Time
4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$133,602.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,797.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,797.45
Gross Return
-24.58%
Net Return (after fees)
-24.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $15,446.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $143.90 107 $15,397.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:50am ET $136.45 107 $14,599.62 $14,648.95 $-797.68
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $153.13 95 $14,547.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $143.39 95 $13,622.05 $13,723.65 $-925.30
(-6.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $152.48 90 $13,723.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $144.79 90 $13,031.10 $13,031.55 $-692.10
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $167.75 77 $12,916.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $157.75 77 $12,146.75 $12,261.55 $-770.00
(-6.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $163.72 74 $12,115.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:05am ET $155.44 74 $11,502.91 $11,649.18 $-612.37
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,649.18
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,649.18
Total Return: +16.49%
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