Compendium › Surge › PEPEUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PEPEUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 2 trades in period

-10.99%
Last 3 Months Return
$3,294.44
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$3,640.89
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 03:57:57

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.1/10
Raw Quality 3.1/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 2.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,592
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$3,640.89
Current Value
$3,294.44
Period P&L
$-400.07
Max Drawdown
-62.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-347.27

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
0 / 2
Best Trade
-5.11%
Worst Trade
-5.14%
Avg Trade Return
-5.12%
Avg Hold Time
12.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$13,897.72
Estimated Fees
$34.74
Gross P&L
$-400.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$-434.81
Gross Return
-10.99%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.94%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $3,640.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 9:20am ET $0.00000292 1,253,342,466 $3,659.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $0.00000277 1,253,342,466 $3,471.76 $3,471.76 $-205.83
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 10:45am ET $0.00000372 933,268,817 $3,471.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 8:45am ET $0.00000353 933,268,817 $3,294.44 $3,294.44 $-194.24
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,294.44
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,705.56
Total Return: -67.06%
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