Compendium › Surge › PEPEUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PEPEUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-9.67%
Last 3 Months Return
$3,659.76
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$4,030.57
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:04:46

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality 3.3/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 3.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,800
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$4,030.57
Current Value
$3,659.76
Period P&L
$-389.68
Max Drawdown
-62.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.71

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+2.60%
Worst Trade
-5.87%
Avg Trade Return
-2.33%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$31,616.19
Estimated Fees
$79.04
Gross P&L
$-389.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-468.72
Gross Return
-9.67%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.63%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $4,030.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET $0.00000385 1,046,901,298 $4,030.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $0.00000395 1,046,901,298 $4,135.26 $4,135.26 +$104.69
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:45am ET $0.00000381 1,085,370,078 $4,135.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000363 1,085,370,078 $3,939.89 $3,939.89 $-195.37
(-4.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $0.00000378 1,042,298,941 $3,939.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:45am ET $0.00000373 1,042,298,941 $3,887.78 $3,887.78 $-52.11
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $0.00000341 1,140,111,437 $3,887.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 29, 2026 6:45pm ET $0.00000321 1,140,111,437 $3,659.76 $3,659.76 $-246.89
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,659.76
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,340.24
Total Return: -63.40%
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