Compendium › Surge › QQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
QQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-07 to present • 4 trades in period

+14.80%
Last 3 Months Return
$13,012.72
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$11,335.30
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-07 13:59:29

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.3/35
Total Return
9.7/25
Win Rate
5.3/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 27.1/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 20.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,812
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-09 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,335.30
Current Value
$13,012.72
Period P&L
$1,677.42
Max Drawdown
-14.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.58

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+15.07%
Worst Trade
-0.69%
Avg Trade Return
+3.81%
Avg Hold Time
8.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$89,411.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,677.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,677.42
Gross Return
+14.80%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,335.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $607.68 18 $10,938.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $614.73 18 $11,065.14 $11,470.84 +$126.90
(+1.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $615.03 18 $11,070.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $613.06 18 $11,035.08 $11,435.38 $-35.46
(-0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:10pm ET $605.42 18 $10,897.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $601.26 18 $10,822.68 $11,360.50 $-74.88
(-0.7%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $609.17 18 $10,965.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:55am ET $700.96 18 $12,617.28 $13,012.72 +$1,652.22
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
29.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,012.72
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,012.72
Total Return: +30.13%
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