Compendium › Surge › RIVN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIVN
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 5 trades in period

-23.94%
Last 3 Months Return
$5,730.80
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$7,534.57
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:27:58

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 3.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 3.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,534.57
Current Value
$5,730.80
Period P&L
$-1,803.77
Max Drawdown
-43.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-15.75

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
0 / 5
Best Trade
-5.11%
Worst Trade
-6.00%
Avg Trade Return
-5.33%
Avg Hold Time
5.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$65,868.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,803.77
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,803.77
Gross Return
-23.94%
Net Return (after fees)
-23.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,534.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $18.08 416 $7,523.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:35am ET $17.16 416 $7,138.56 $7,149.77 $-384.80
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $18.12 394 $7,139.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET $17.17 394 $6,764.94 $6,775.43 $-374.34
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $17.83 380 $6,775.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $16.76 380 $6,368.80 $6,368.83 $-406.60
(-6.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $16.42 387 $6,354.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:20am ET $15.58 387 $6,029.42 $6,043.71 $-325.12
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $16.03 377 $6,043.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET $15.20 377 $5,730.40 $5,730.80 $-312.91
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,730.80
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,269.20
Total Return: -42.69%
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