Compendium › Surge › SHIBUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SHIBUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+0.38%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,928.16
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$7,857.67
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:04:55

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22 oversold
20d Trend
-35.2%
5d Trend
-32.9%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.2/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 4.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,800
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,857.67
Current Value
$7,928.16
Period P&L
$29.80
Max Drawdown
-38.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+4.77%
Worst Trade
-5.01%
Avg Trade Return
+0.29%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$64,555.43
Estimated Fees
$161.39
Gross P&L
$29.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$-131.59
Gross Return
+0.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.67%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SHIBUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,857.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:05am ET $0.00000622 1,263,290,996 $7,857.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:30pm ET $0.00000639 1,263,290,996 $8,072.43 $8,072.43 +$214.76
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000608 1,327,702,302 $8,072.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000600 1,327,702,302 $7,966.21 $7,966.21 $-106.22
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:10am ET $0.00000629 1,266,488,076 $7,966.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 15, 2026 9:35pm ET $0.00000659 1,266,488,076 $8,346.16 $8,346.16 +$379.95
(+4.8%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $0.00000599 1,393,348,915 $8,346.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 29, 2026 6:50pm ET $0.00000569 1,393,348,915 $7,928.16 $7,928.16 $-458.69
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,928.16
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,071.84
Total Return: -20.72%
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