Compendium › Surge › SOFI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SOFI
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 4 trades in period

-21.88%
Last 3 Months Return
$15,923.93
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$20,382.99
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:53:38

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.0/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.7/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 37.5/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 35.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$20,382.99
Current Value
$15,923.93
Period P&L
$-4,459.06
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-20.75

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
0 / 4
Best Trade
-5.03%
Worst Trade
-5.62%
Avg Trade Return
-5.19%
Avg Hold Time
13d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$141,889.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,459.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,459.06
Gross Return
-21.88%
Net Return (after fees)
-21.88%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $20,382.99 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $17.31 1,138 $19,693.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:15am ET $16.43 1,138 $18,703.03 $18,716.62 $-990.06
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
39d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $18.94 988 $18,712.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 10:20am ET $17.88 988 $17,660.50 $17,664.40 $-1,052.22
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
50m held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $18.55 952 $17,659.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:55am ET $17.61 952 $16,767.20 $16,771.90 $-892.50
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $17.29 970 $16,770.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:35am ET $16.42 970 $15,922.55 $15,923.93 $-847.97
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,923.93
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,923.93
Total Return: +59.24%
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