Compendium › Surge › XRPUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XRPUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 5 trades in period

-3.57%
Last 3 Months Return
$21,598.31
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$22,282.19
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:10:18

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

39
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
19.6/35
Total Return
17.2/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality 44.7/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 39.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,785
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$22,282.19
Current Value
$21,598.31
Period P&L
$-794.79
Max Drawdown
-20.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+4.04%
Worst Trade
-5.12%
Avg Trade Return
-0.56%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$223,120.61
Estimated Fees
$557.80
Gross P&L
$-794.79
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,352.59
Gross Return
-3.57%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.07%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $22,282.19 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:30am ET $1.50 14,819 $22,281.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET $1.54 14,819 $22,849.27 $22,849.61 +$567.42
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET $1.44 15,815 $22,849.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $1.40 15,815 $22,128.35 $22,128.53 $-721.08
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $1.43 15,524 $22,127.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:20pm ET $1.41 15,524 $21,878.75 $21,879.29 $-249.24
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $1.41 15,568 $21,879.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 15, 2026 9:35pm ET $1.46 15,568 $22,763.69 $22,763.71 +$884.42
(+4.0%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $1.41 16,103 $22,763.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 2:10pm ET $1.34 16,103 $21,598.31 $21,598.31 $-1,276.31
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $21,598.31
Net Profit/Loss: +$11,598.31
Total Return: +115.98%
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