Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:31:54

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.4 neutral
20d Trend
-15.2%
5d Trend
-20.7%
EMA20 Dist
-16.9%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.4/35
Total Return
14.9/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality 30.8/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 30.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$16,799.30
Current Value
$16,118.21
Period P&L
$-681.09
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
4 / 11
Best Trade
+19.43%
Worst Trade
-6.73%
Avg Trade Return
+0.39%
Avg Hold Time
6.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$541,787.82
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-681.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$-681.09
Gross Return
-4.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $16,799.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $197.85 82 $16,223.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $232.37 82 $19,054.34 $19,080.94 +$2,830.64
(+17.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
23d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $264.93 72 $19,074.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 10:10am ET $305.71 72 $22,011.12 $22,017.10 +$2,936.16
(+15.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
3 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $426.80 51 $21,766.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 10:20am ET $404.50 51 $20,629.50 $20,879.80 $-1,137.30
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held
4 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $424.43 49 $20,797.13 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 10:10am ET $399.48 49 $19,574.52 $19,657.19 $-1,222.61
(-5.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held
5 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $469.87 41 $19,264.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $540.51 41 $22,160.71 $22,553.23 +$2,896.04
(+15.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $535.75 42 $22,501.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET $508.10 42 $21,340.20 $21,391.93 $-1,161.30
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $544.37 39 $21,230.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $507.75 39 $19,802.25 $19,963.75 $-1,428.18
(-6.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $558.33 35 $19,541.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET $527.99 35 $18,479.82 $18,902.02 $-1,061.73
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $537.96 35 $18,828.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET $508.84 35 $17,809.35 $17,882.77 $-1,019.25
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $517.24 34 $17,586.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET $488.98 34 $16,625.32 $16,921.93 $-960.84
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $509.48 33 $16,812.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 3:40pm ET $483.84 33 $15,966.72 $16,075.97 $-845.96
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $504.00 31 $15,624.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $471.14 31 $14,605.49 $15,057.46 $-1,018.51
(-6.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $488.80 30 $14,664.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:15am ET $462.68 30 $13,880.40 $14,273.86 $-783.60
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $477.38 29 $13,844.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:25am ET $452.53 29 $13,123.37 $13,553.21 $-720.65
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $488.88 27 $13,199.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $583.88 27 $15,764.76 $16,118.21 +$2,565.00
(+19.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,118.21
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,118.21
Total Return: +61.18%
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