Compendium › Surge › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 3 trades in period

-0.80%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,463.37
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$12,564.45
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:05:55

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.2/35
Total Return
11.7/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 24.3/100
× Confidence 0.79 = 19.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,564.45
Current Value
$12,463.37
Period P&L
$-101.08
Max Drawdown
-16.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+10.67%
Worst Trade
-5.48%
Avg Trade Return
-0.00%
Avg Hold Time
26d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$75,099.54
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-101.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$-101.08
Gross Return
-0.80%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,564.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 172 $12,542.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $69.13 172 $11,890.36 $11,912.36 $-652.09
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 162 $11,911.86 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $81.38 162 $13,182.75 $13,183.25 +$1,270.89
(+10.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $78.25 168 $13,146.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $73.96 168 $12,426.12 $12,463.37 $-719.88
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
32d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,463.37
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,463.37
Total Return: +24.63%
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