AVAXUSD Surge's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 34 trades in period
-0.81%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,740.02
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$9,768.95
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
4.8/100
× Confidence 0.88
= 4.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
52,260
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
182 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,768.95
Current Value
$9,740.02
Period P&L
$-79.09
Max Drawdown
-33.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
13 /
21
Best Trade
+6.13%
Worst Trade
-5.63%
Avg Trade Return
-0.02%
Avg Hold Time
14.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$706,201.62
Estimated Fees
$1,765.50
Gross P&L
$-79.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,844.59
Gross Return
-0.81%
Net Return (after fees)
-18.88%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 182 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,768.95 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:45am ET | $16.79 | 590 | $9,906.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $16.03 | 590 | $9,457.70 | $9,468.05 |
$-448.40 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:25am ET | $16.79 | 563 | $9,452.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 11:30am ET | $17.25 | 563 | $9,711.75 | $9,727.03 |
+$258.98 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:35am ET | $15.66 | 621 | $9,724.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 12:45pm ET | $15.40 | 621 | $9,563.40 | $9,565.57 |
$-161.46 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:35am ET | $14.76 | 648 | $9,564.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $14.36 | 648 | $9,305.28 | $9,306.37 |
$-259.20 (-2.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:05am ET | $14.47 | 643 | $9,304.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:20am ET | $14.28 | 643 | $9,182.04 | $9,184.20 |
$-122.17 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 12:20pm ET | $13.39 | 685 | $9,172.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:00pm ET | $13.25 | 685 | $9,076.25 | $9,088.30 |
$-95.90 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 11:00am ET | $13.56 | 670 | $9,085.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 1:10pm ET | $13.91 | 670 | $9,321.04 | $9,324.14 |
+$235.84 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:10am ET | $14.05 | 663 | $9,315.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 12:45pm ET | $14.44 | 663 | $9,573.72 | $9,582.71 |
+$258.57 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $13.38 | 716 | $9,580.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $14.20 | 716 | $10,167.20 | $10,169.83 |
+$587.12 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 12:10pm ET | $14.40 | 706 | $10,166.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $14.86 | 706 | $10,491.16 | $10,494.59 |
+$324.76 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $13.82 | 759 | $10,489.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 11:00am ET | $13.60 | 759 | $10,322.40 | $10,327.61 |
$-166.98 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $13.73 | 752 | $10,324.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 10:50am ET | $14.13 | 752 | $10,625.76 | $10,628.41 |
+$300.80 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 11:25am ET | $14.35 | 740 | $10,619.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 3:10pm ET | $14.75 | 740 | $10,915.00 | $10,924.41 |
+$296.00 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 10:50am ET | $12.34 | 885 | $10,920.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 12:40pm ET | $12.20 | 885 | $10,797.00 | $10,800.51 |
$-123.90 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:05am ET | $12.52 | 862 | $10,792.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:40am ET | $12.36 | 862 | $10,654.32 | $10,662.59 |
$-137.92 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:05am ET | $12.32 | 865 | $10,656.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 12:30pm ET | $12.19 | 865 | $10,544.35 | $10,550.14 |
$-112.45 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 1:35pm ET | $12.15 | 868 | $10,546.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $11.97 | 868 | $10,389.96 | $10,393.90 |
$-156.24 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $13.50 | 769 | $10,381.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.13 | 769 | $10,862.89 | $10,875.29 |
+$481.39 (+4.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:55pm ET | $14.27 | 762 | $10,872.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.63 | 762 | $11,148.06 | $11,150.37 |
+$275.08 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $13.83 | 806 | $11,146.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $13.68 | 806 | $11,028.50 | $11,031.89 |
$-118.48 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $13.87 | 795 | $11,026.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 2:15pm ET | $13.72 | 795 | $10,907.40 | $10,912.64 |
$-119.25 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:20am ET | $13.71 | 795 | $10,899.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $14.07 | 795 | $11,185.65 | $11,198.84 |
+$286.20 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:30am ET | $14.17 | 790 | $11,194.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $14.54 | 790 | $11,486.60 | $11,491.14 |
+$292.30 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:50am ET | $14.74 | 779 | $11,482.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 1:15pm ET | $14.59 | 779 | $11,365.61 | $11,374.29 |
$-116.85 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:30pm ET | $12.42 | 915 | $11,364.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $12.18 | 915 | $11,144.70 | $11,154.69 |
$-219.60 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $12.24 | 911 | $11,150.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:30pm ET | $12.05 | 911 | $10,977.55 | $10,981.60 |
$-173.09 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.88 | 924 | $10,977.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:40am ET | $11.71 | 924 | $10,820.04 | $10,824.52 |
$-157.08 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $11.74 | 922 | $10,824.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $11.59 | 922 | $10,685.98 | $10,686.22 |
$-138.30 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $10.28 | 1,039 | $10,680.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $10.17 | 1,039 | $10,566.63 | $10,571.93 |
$-114.29 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $10.19 | 1,037 | $10,567.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $9.77 | 1,037 | $10,131.49 | $10,136.39 |
$-435.54 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $9.07 | 1,117 | $10,131.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:50am ET | $9.31 | 1,117 | $10,399.27 | $10,404.47 |
+$268.08 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.97 | 1,160 | $10,401.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.75 | 1,160 | $10,146.51 | $10,149.44 |
$-255.03 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $9.07 | 1,118 | $10,145.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 15, 2026 9:30pm ET | $9.23 | 1,118 | $10,317.36 | $10,321.51 |
+$172.07 (+1.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET | $9.23 | 1,118 | $10,321.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 6:55am ET | $8.71 | 1,118 | $9,740.02 | $9,740.02 |
$-631.65 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,740.02
Net Profit/Loss:
$-259.98
Total Return:
-2.60%