Compendium › Surge › ETHUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ETHUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 29 trades in period

-8.18%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,769.44
Current Value
28%
Win Rate
$9,501.77
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:04:52

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 4.4/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 3.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
52,292
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
182 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,501.77
Current Value
$8,769.44
Period P&L
$-777.43
Max Drawdown
-36.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
8 / 21
Best Trade
+4.59%
Worst Trade
-5.44%
Avg Trade Return
-0.21%
Avg Hold Time
12.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$479,808.37
Estimated Fees
$1,199.52
Gross P&L
$-777.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,976.95
Gross Return
-8.18%
Net Return (after fees)
-20.81%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 182 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,501.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 11:20am ET $3,315.80 2 $6,631.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 1:15pm ET $3,416.48 2 $6,832.96 $9,703.13 +$201.36
(+3.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 11:25am ET $3,235.00 2 $6,470.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 12:45pm ET $3,184.44 2 $6,368.88 $9,602.01 $-101.12
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 10:25am ET $3,115.60 3 $9,346.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 10:15am ET $3,069.70 3 $9,209.10 $9,464.31 $-137.70
(-1.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 12:05pm ET $2,796.80 3 $8,390.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 1:00pm ET $2,764.40 3 $8,293.20 $9,367.11 $-97.20
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 11:00am ET $2,867.30 3 $8,601.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 12:55pm ET $2,940.13 3 $8,820.39 $9,585.60 +$218.49
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 11:25am ET $2,928.46 3 $8,785.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 2:05pm ET $2,897.85 3 $8,693.55 $9,493.77 $-91.83
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET $2,925.01 3 $8,775.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 10:40am ET $2,999.58 3 $8,998.74 $9,717.48 +$223.71
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET $3,220.01 3 $9,660.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 11:35am ET $3,184.79 3 $9,554.37 $9,611.82 $-105.66
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET $3,145.16 3 $9,435.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 10:55am ET $3,106.66 3 $9,319.98 $9,496.32 $-115.50
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET $3,142.60 3 $9,427.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 10:50am ET $3,253.90 3 $9,761.70 $9,830.22 +$333.90
(+3.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 1:40pm ET $3,232.72 3 $9,698.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 2:05pm ET $3,195.18 3 $9,585.54 $9,717.60 $-112.62
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 10:05am ET $3,015.00 3 $9,045.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET $2,976.99 3 $8,930.97 $9,603.57 $-114.03
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 3:40pm ET $2,978.50 3 $8,935.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 10:00am ET $2,913.40 3 $8,740.20 $9,408.27 $-195.30
(-2.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 11:40am ET $2,943.12 3 $8,829.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 10:00am ET $2,911.78 3 $8,735.34 $9,314.25 $-94.02
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:30am ET $3,136.63 2 $6,273.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET $3,103.42 2 $6,206.84 $9,247.83 $-66.42
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:40am ET $3,189.60 2 $6,379.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET $3,279.15 2 $6,558.30 $9,426.93 +$179.10
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET $3,099.41 3 $9,298.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET $3,066.71 3 $9,200.13 $9,328.83 $-98.10
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET $3,109.40 3 $9,328.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 2:15pm ET $3,076.70 3 $9,230.10 $9,230.73 $-98.10
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET $3,126.10 2 $6,252.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 12:30pm ET $3,091.50 2 $6,183.00 $9,161.53 $-69.20
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:55am ET $3,182.76 2 $6,365.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET $3,328.80 2 $6,657.60 $9,453.61 +$292.08
(+4.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 11:10am ET $3,367.60 2 $6,735.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 1:30pm ET $3,326.50 2 $6,653.00 $9,371.41 $-82.20
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET $3,020.20 3 $9,060.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:35am ET $2,986.22 3 $8,958.66 $9,269.47 $-101.94
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET $2,955.59 3 $8,866.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET $2,917.36 3 $8,752.08 $9,154.78 $-114.69
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET $2,962.62 3 $8,887.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $2,918.73 3 $8,756.19 $9,023.11 $-131.67
(-1.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET $2,387.00 3 $7,161.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 11:45am ET $2,358.16 3 $7,074.48 $8,936.59 $-86.52
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:20am ET $2,013.70 4 $8,054.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $2,069.49 4 $8,277.96 $9,159.75 +$223.16
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $2,061.83 4 $8,247.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:20am ET $2,035.40 4 $8,141.58 $9,054.01 $-105.74
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET $2,013.43 4 $8,053.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 11:50am ET $2,068.44 4 $8,273.74 $9,274.05 +$220.04
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
29 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $2,124.96 4 $9,274.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 6:40am ET $2,009.34 4 $8,769.44 $8,769.44 $-549.71
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,769.44
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,230.56
Total Return: -12.31%
Back to Surge