Compendium › Surge › ETHUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ETHUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 2 trades in period

+7.02%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,117.17
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,409.48
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:29:04

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
2.8/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 7.5/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 6.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
53,046
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
185 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,409.48
Current Value
$10,117.17
Period P&L
$660.48
Max Drawdown
-36.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.48

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
1 / 1
Best Trade
+15.37%
Worst Trade
-5.44%
Avg Trade Return
+4.96%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$36,930.10
Estimated Fees
$92.33
Gross P&L
$660.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$568.15
Gross Return
+7.02%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.04%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 185 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,409.48 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $2,124.96 4 $9,274.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 6:40am ET $2,009.34 4 $8,769.44 $8,769.44 $-549.71
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 4:50pm ET $2,192.28 4 $8,769.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 6:00pm ET $2,529.20 4 $10,117.17 $10,117.17 +$1,300.51
(+15.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,117.17
Net Profit/Loss: +$117.17
Total Return: +1.17%
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